Amega Forex Analysis

[Amega]

USDJPY overview 23.07.2021

USDJPY rises on stronger dollar.

USDJPY under the bullish pressure today as the U.S. dollar climbed to a three-month peak on Tuesday in a flight-to-safety bid, as investors remained worried about a fast-spreading Delta coronavirus variant that could damage global growth. U.S. infections have risen sharply, especially in areas where vaccinations have lagged. At the same time, an unwinding in speculative positions is forcing a short squeeze in currency markets – driving the dollar upward. The safe-haven strengthening in the dollar is reasonable to expect at this moment – considering that global progress has been slow as compared to Q1 so now all valuations and high expectations for growth are being rightly questioned.

Expect buyers on downward corrections.

Next resistance to watch – 110.65

 

[Amega]

EURUSD 26.07.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.18263-1.18175 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 1.17383-1.17285. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.18485-1.18397. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 1.18485-1.18397 (100 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

USDCHF 27.07.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 0.91594-0.91485 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 0.90500-0.90393. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 0.92397-0.92286. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 0.92397-0.92286 (125 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

EURUSD overview 27.07.2021

EURUSD rises on dollar outflows.

EURUSD under the bullish pressure today driven up by the U.S. dollar outflows after US Durable Goods Orders missed estimates with +0.8% in June. The report showed that orders were up 0.8% in June, much worse than the 2.1% expected. The core reading, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft, surged 0.5% in the same month, also missing the market’s expectations. This led to the knee-jerk outflows from the U.S. dollar. The USD continues to weaken against its rivals after this data and the pair is expected to continue to rise ahead of this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting which should provide clues on when the central bank might rein in its easy monetary policies.

Expect buyers on downward corrections.

Next resistance to watch – 1.1830

 

[Amega]

USDCAD 28.07.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.26289-1.26114 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 1.24559-1.24388. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.27182-1.27004. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 1.27182-1.27004 (195 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

Watch out for the upcoming FED Interest Rate Decision announcement and its impact on EURUSD & other USD pairs.

 

[Amega]

USDJPY overview 28.07.2021

USDJPY rises on stronger dollar.

USDJPY under the bullish pressure today driven up by the U.S. dollar positive sentiment ahead of the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar has enjoyed a month-long rally after a hawkish shift from the Fed in June. Markets are waiting to see whether it will provide any clues on the timing of tapering later in the day amid surging U.S. inflation. The Fed will publish a statement at 1800 GMT today followed by a news conference from Chair Jerome Powell at 1830 GMT. Still, the chances are high that the Fed will not shift policy, given its view that the recent spike in inflation will likely be transitory and worries that growing COVID-19 cases could derail the global recovery.

Expect buyers on downward corrections.

Next resistance to watch – 110.60

 

[Amega]

EURUSD 29.07.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bullish

The bull market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.18485-1.18397 and it is going to the target zone №2 1.19365-1.19277. Any price reduction is considered like corrective. The best prices to try to have a long position are the control resistance zone 1.17699-1.17611. In case of the price is fixed below the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bear market and all long positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a long position near the control resistance zone 1.17699-1.17611 (100 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current maximum. If this maximum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points up. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

Watch out for the upcoming US Gross Domestic Product announcement and how could it affect EURUSD and other USD pairs.

 

[Amega]

GOLD overview 29.07.2021

Gold rises as rate hike ruled out.

Gold under the strong bullish pressure today after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reassured investors that a rate hike is not on the cards anytime soon, sending the dollar to multi-week lows. Powell said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it will be time to pull back support and the Fed was “ways away” from considering rate hikes. After Powell’s comments, the dollar slipped to a one-month low against its rivals, making gold less expensive for holders of other currencies. The gold is also rising as global demand for gold rose in the second quarter to its highest quarterly level in a year, as central banks and investors increased the purchases.

Expect buyers on downward corrections.

Next resistance to watch – 1834.00

 

[Amega]

GOLD 30.07.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bullish

The bull market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1845.10-1840.60 and it is going to the target zone №2 1890.10-1885.60. Any price reduction is considered like corrective. The best prices to try to have a long position are the control resistance zone 1789.08-1784.58. In case of the price is fixed below the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bear market and all long positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a long position near the control resistance zone 1789.08-1784.58 (495 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current maximum. If this maximum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points up. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

AUDUSD overview 30.07.2021

AUDUSD falls on weaker China.

AUDUSD under strong bearish pressure today under the effect of the wide-spread Australian dollar pessimism as its largest trade partner China suffers the investors outflows. China shares eye worst month since May 2019 after Beijing's announcement of new rules barring for-profit tutoring in core school subjects resulted in a significant rout in the country's equity markets. An index of emerging market shares fell on Monday as Chinese equities slipped on regulatory concerns, and was set for its worst month since a pandemic-led rout in March last year. The bearish pressure on Chinese equities intensified by severe coronavirus outbreaks in the region. This is translating into the selling pressure on the Australian dollar – as the global proxy of the Chinese-related sentiment.

Expect sellers on upward corrections.

Next support to watch – 0.7317

 

[Amega]

EURUSD 02.08.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bullish

The bull market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.18485-1.18397 and it is going to the target zone №2 1.19365-1.19277. Any price reduction is considered like corrective. The best prices to try to have a long position are the control resistance zone 1.18206-1.18118. In case of the price is fixed below the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bear market and all long positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a long position near the control resistance zone 1.18206-1.18118 (100 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current maximum. If this maximum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points up. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

GOLD overview 02.08.2021

Gold falls on improved risk sentiment.

Gold continues to fall today as an increase in appetite for riskier assets weighed on the safe-haven gold. The sentiment across the global financial markets remains upbeat today with European stocks scaling fresh peaks, driven by deal making activity and strong results from Europe’s biggest bank HSBC. Global risks sentiment is also improving on reports that the vaccines currently employed are largely effective again the Delta variant spreading fast across the European continent – meaning its spread will not have significant effect on the economic growth in the region. This is driving safe-haven outflows from Gold into dollar ahead of the non-farm payroll report due on Friday.

Expect sellers on upward corrections.

Next support to watch – 1793.00

 

[Amega]

GBPUSD 03.08.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bullish

The bull market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.39330-1.39158 and it is going to the target zone №2 1.41050-1.40878. Any price reduction is considered like corrective. The best prices to try to have a long position are the control resistance zone 1.38111-1.37939. In case of the price is fixed below the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bear market and all long positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a long position near the control resistance zone 1.38111-1.37939 (190 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current maximum. If this maximum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points up. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

BRENT overview 03.08.2021

Oil falls on fears for Delta spread.

Oil under strong bearish pressure, continuing the yesterday’s losses – as trader focus has now fully shifted to the rapidly spreading Delta coronavirus variant. Concerns over the spread of Delta variant in the United States and China, the top oil consumers, is currently the primary factor affecting oil prices. In China, the spread of the variant from the coast to inland cities has prompted authorities to impose strict measures to bring the outbreak under control. Delta-related concerns will likely keep oil markets volatile over the coming weeks. Furthermore, expectations of a return of Iranian crude to the market are also driving the prices down. Iran's new president, Ebrahim Raisi, said on Tuesday his government would take steps to lift "tyrannical" sanctions imposed by the United States on its energy and banking sectors.

Expect sellers on upward corrections.

Next support to watch – 69,35

 

[Amega]

USDCHF 04.08.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 0.90500-0.90393 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 0.89432-0.89328. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 0.91425-0.91317. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 0.91425-0.91317 (120 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

NZDUSD overview 04.08.2021

NZDUSD surges on rate hike expectations.

NZDUSD under strong bullish pressure today as the result of the widespread New Zealand dollar bearishness after a drop in unemployment in the country raised expectations rate hikes could begin within weeks. The country's central bank had said on Tuesday it would soon begin consulting on ways to tighten mortgage lending standards, as it tries to control an inflated housing market – which removed any doubt that the central bank will soon start raining the interest rates. The pair is also driven up by moderate USD bearishness as the investors are awaiting the publication of the ADP employment survey, ahead of Friday's labour market report.

Expect buyers on downward corrections.

Next resistance to watch – 0.710313

 

[Amega]

USDCAD 05.08.2021

Medium-termtrend: Bearish

The bear market is continuing. The price has already reached the target zone №1 1.24559-1.24388 and it has a potential to reach the target zone №2 1.22875-1.22710. The best prices to try to have a short position are the control resistance zone 1.26115-1.25940. In case of the price is fixed upper the control resistance zone the medium-term trend will be changed to the bull market and all short positions should be closed.

Trading recommendation:

It’s recommended to try to have a short position near the control resistance zone 1.26115-1.25940 (190 points from current minimum) with using the pattern «Head&Shoulders» at least on timeframe M15.

The control resistance zone is constructed from the current minimum. If this minimum changes by n points the zone should also be shifted n points down. The risk/reward ratio for every order should be at least 1/3.

All zones are constructed on the basis of data from the CME futures market.

 

[Amega]

BRENT overview 05.08.2021

Oil rises on Middle East tensions.

Oil rising today – against the previous sharp downward price impulse – under the effect of the rising Middle East tensions after Israeli jets struck rocket launch sites in Lebanon early on Thursday in response to two rockets fired towards Israel from Lebanese territory, in an escalation of cross-border hostilities amid heightened tensions with Iran. The exchange came after an attack on a tanker off the coast of Oman last Thursday, which Israel blamed on Iran. Iran denied any involvement. Asked if Israel was prepared to strike Iran, Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz told YNet news on Thursday "yes." This is countering the earlier optimism about the return of Iranian oil to the global oil markets and weaking oil bears.

Expect buyers on downward corrections.

Next resistance to watch – 70,93