Forex Analysis by LiteForex

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, returning to a downtrend after the opening with the rising gap against the backdrop of an unexpected reduction in the interest rate by the Fed to zero. In an effort to help a weakening economy, the US regulator lowered its key rate range to 0.00–0.25%, and also announced that it would increase its balance sheet to USD 700B. In addition, at the end of last week, US President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a state of emergency in the US, which will allow the country to attract additional investments on the ground and increase funding for the program to combat the epidemic. The ECB also seeks to create additional support for the economy. Despite the fact that at its last meeting, the European regulator did not change the rate parameters, the EU intends to create a special fund in the amount of EUR 37B, and also guarantees support for small and medium-sized businesses through the issuance of loans in the amount of EUR 8B.

GBP/USD

GBP is again trading with a downtrend paired with USD, approaching the previous local lows, updated at the end of last week. GBP, like many other currencies, opened on Monday with a noticeable increase, which was caused by an unexpected decrease in the interest rate of the Fed immediately by 100 basis points. However, despite the unprecedented measures that the US government is taking to curb the negative effects of coronavirus, demand for USD remains very high, as investors fear a negative scenario. Today's macroeconomic statistics from the UK got lost amid news from the United States. However, Rightmove House Price Index in March rose by 1.0% MoM, accelerating after rising by 0.8% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator grew by 3.5% YoY after an increase of 2.9% YoY in the previous month. Traders are awaiting the publication of the February report on the UK labor market, which is due to appear on Tuesday.

NZD/USD

NZD is falling against USD during today's Asian session, returning to the lows of last Friday after the opening with the gap up due to a sharp interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The American regulator did not wait for the scheduled meeting at the end of the month and announced the most decisive measures to support the national economy, trying to minimize the damage from the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Macroeconomic statistics released this morning have been mixed. Investors were disappointed with the Chinese data on retail sales and industrial production, but were optimistic about the statistics on the number of Visitor Arrivals in New Zealand in January, reflecting an increase in the indicator (it is obvious that in the coming months the tourist flow will noticeably decrease). Industrial production in China fell by 13.5% YoY in February, after rising by 6.9% YoY last month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 1.5% YoY. Retail Sales went down by 20.5% YoY after rising by 8% YoY in January. Forecasts suggested an increase of 0.8% YoY.

USD/JPY

USD shows ambiguous dynamics against JPY during today's Asian session, trading near the opening level at 107.00. Investors take a lead from a sudden decision of the US Fed to lower interest rates to zero, which should help a weakening global economy amid the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Other leading regulators come forward with similar measures. Earlier, the Bank of Japan announced a new program of purchases of government bonds worth JPY 200B, and also announced the issuance of JPY 1.5T of short-term loans for small and medium-sized businesses. Moderate support for JPY at the beginning of the week is provided by macroeconomic statistics published in Japan. Machinery Orders in January grew by 2.9% MoM after a decrease of 12.5% MoM last month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to remain at –1.6% MoM. In annual terms, the decline slowed from –3.5% YoY to –0.3% YoY, which also turned out to be better than forecast of –0.5% YoY.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, gradually returning to the levels of the end of last week, when the instrument recorded a strong decline and updated local lows of the end of December 2019. Gold, like many other assets paired with USD, showed a positive gap at the opening of trading of the new week, which was caused by extremely aggressive measures of support for the national economy by the US Fed. Without waiting for the scheduled meeting, the regulator announced a reduction in interest rates to zero, which, coupled with unprecedented support of USD 1.5T, should significantly help the national and global economy.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is trading in different directions, consolidating near the level of 1.1180. Investors are concerned about the rapid development of the situation with coronavirus in the world and are looking for salvation in shelter assets, which are becoming less and less. Yesterday, the main news came from the United States: the Fed announced a sudden rate cut to almost zero. However, a sharp decline in USD did not follow, it was able to quickly recover and move into the green zone. The single currency closed Monday trading with a slight decrease, which, among other things, was due to the publication of poor macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation in Italy. Investors also focused on a sharp decline in February industrial production by 13.5% YoY in China. During the day, traders expect the publication of data on business sentiment in the EU and Germany from ZEW, as well as statistics on production volumes in the construction sector in January. Europe also plans to hold a meeting of the Council of Ministers of Finance and Economics, which will discuss additional measures to support the region's economy in the context of the further spread of the epidemic.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in a downward direction, continuing the development of a “bearish” trend since March 9, which led to the renewing of local lows from October 2019. New measures to support the economy, which the Fed announced the day before, had virtually no effect on the active growth of USD across the entire spectrum of the market. This was especially noticeable in the dynamics of the pound against the dollar since the British currency in the current realities is far from the concept of a “shelter asset”. Also, after the Fed’s decision, investors expect the Bank of England to take additional measures to support the economy at its next meeting on March 26. The focus of investors on Tuesday is the publication of information on the UK labor market for January-February of this year.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing slightly, retreating from record lows of the end of 2008, renewed the day before. Now, the instrument has added insignificant 0.07% and is trying to consolidate above the levels of 0.6100–0.6110. The price is under pressure amid the coronavirus pandemic, which is forcing the world's leading central banks to resort to the most decisive measures to support the global economy. The weakening of the Australian currency on Monday was also due to the disappointing data from China. February industrial production decreased by 13.5% YoY after an increase by 6.9% YoY in January. Retail sales for the same period fell by 20.5% YoY after rising by 8% YoY at the beginning of the year. On Tuesday, slight support for the instrument is provided by data from Australia on the dynamics of housing prices. In the fourth quarter, prices rose by 3.9% QoQ and 2.5% YoY, which was noticeably better than the data for the previous period +2.4% QoQ and –3.7% YoY.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing, compensating for the decline the day before, when the yen still got a chance to strengthen after a sharp decrease in the Fed’s interest rate. The Bank of Japan, in turn, left rates at the previous lows, however, noted that it would increase the quantitative easing program and also develop a new corporate lending scheme that should support economic activity in the country. On Tuesday, JPY was slightly supported by macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Thus, industrial production in January increased by 1% MoM after an increase by 0.8% MoM over the past month. In annual terms, production slowed down its decline from –2.5% YoY to –2.3% YoY. The capacity utilization rate for January increased by 1.1% MoM after a decline by 0.4% MoM for December.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices remain under pressure and are testing for a downward breakdown of the level of 1500.00. The instrument continues to develop a confident “bearish” trend, which led to the renewing of record lows on Monday. Although at the beginning of the new week at Forex, the Fed announced a sudden decrease in the interest rate to almost lows, investors actively sold the precious metal, compensating for their losses in other assets. Meanwhile, US bond yields continued to decline steadily. Collapses were also recorded on stock and commodity platforms. Macroeconomic statistics published yesterday was poor. Investors were disappointed by the Chinese record decline in February industrial production by 13.5% YoY. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in March fell from 12.9 to –21.5 points against the forecast of a decrease to only 4 points.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR is growing against USD during today's Asian session, correcting after another active decline yesterday when EUR was under pressure from the depressing statistics on business activity from ZEW. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment collapsed from 8.7 points to –49.5 points in March, which turned out to be almost half the market’s expectations of –26.4 points. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment for the same period fell from –15.7 to –43.1 points with a forecast of –30 points. ZEW Economic Sentiment in the euro area in March fell from 10.4 to –49.5 points with a forecast of a decrease of only 35.4 points. Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage in Europe, which is pushing states to take new measures to support the economy and tighten quarantine. Many European companies have announced that they will suspend their production for several weeks in an attempt to minimize their losses. On Wednesday, European investors are focused on the February statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area.

GBP/USD

GBP is correcting against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from half-year lows, updated the day before. The instrument adds about 0.45% and is trying to consolidate above 1.2100–1.2110. The main driver of the pair's movement remains the coronavirus epidemic, which stirs the markets. Investors continue to buy USD as a safe currency, only occasionally paying attention to more risky assets. The current growth of GBP can be attributed to the fixation of quick profits, while fundamentally the situation remains the same. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK published yesterday turned out to be mixed. Claimant Count Rate in February increased by 17.3K after a decrease of 0.2K in the previous period. Analysts had expected a more confident growth of 21.4K. Average Earning Including Bonus in January increased from 2.9% 3MoY to 3.1% 3MoY, which was 0.1% better than expected. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in January rose from 3.8% to 3.9%.

NZD/USD

NZD today shows flat trading dynamics, consolidating after another decline yesterday, which led to the updating of record lows since May 2009. NZD noticeably lose to USD, which is popular with those trying to minimize their risks. The pursuit of liquidity does not interfere even with unprecedented measures to support the US economy. On Monday, the Fed sharply reduced its rates to the lowest levels, and also said that it had adjusted its program aimed at providing USD abroad with other leading regulators. The US Treasury Department announced that it intends to buy back USD 1 trillion in securities by US companies, while the business can expect a deferment in paying taxes. Yesterday's macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand put additional pressure on the instrument. Global Dairy Trade Price Index in February fell by 3.9% MoM after a decrease of 1.2% MoM in the previous month. The indicator was worse than the forecast of –2.7% MoM.

USD/JPY

USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, correcting after active growth yesterday, which proceeded against the backdrop of a market race for liquidity. At the same time, Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday provided insignificant support to JPY. Industrial Production in January slightly increased from 0.8% MoM to 1.0% MoM. Capacity Utilization in the same period added 1.1% MoM after the decline by 0.4% MoM in December. At the same time, US data were disappointing. Retail sales fell in February by 0.5% MoM after rising by 0.6% MoM in January.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are consolidating during today's Asian session near the level of 1530.00, to which the instrument managed to rise due to corrective growth the day before. Investors drew attention to gold amid the ongoing rally of USD, as concerns about a further slowdown in the global economy remain. Additional support for the instrument was provided by weak US Retail Sales data, which reflected a natural weakening of economic activity at the beginning of the epidemic. On Wednesday, investors expect the appearance of statistics on the housing market in the US for February, but do not expect to receive any additional support for USD.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is falling, continuing to develop a downtrend, which leads to the renewing of local minimums on the instrument since February 21. Now, the European currency has lost about 0.16%, testing the level of 1.0900 for a breakdown. The instrument remains under pressure amid the ongoing collapse in the stock markets and the growth of panic sentiment that is pushing investors to buy USD. Yesterday, European stock exchanges recorded the strongest decline in the last 7 years. Traders are also shocked by the price of oil, which fell to $20 per barrel (WTI Crude Oil). Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation in the EU met the forecasts but failed to provide significant support to the euro. The consumer price index in March rose by 0.2% MoM after a decline by 1% MoM in January. Annual inflation growth rates remained at the previous level of +1.2% YoY.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair continues to renew record lows amid a sharp decline since March 10. Today, during the Asian session, the instrument tries to consolidate below 1.1500, the lowest level since 1985. Investors are actively buying up dollars in the market, fearing a negative scenario for the development of the coronavirus epidemic. Also, the UK, unlike many other countries, delayed the introduction of strict quarantine, and now investors fear that with an outbreak of illness, the health system may not be able to cope with the flow of patients.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is actively declining, renewing record multi-year lows against the ongoing rally of the US dollar. Panic in the market, as well as the sharp collapse of stock exchanges, are pushing investors to buy US currency, which currently serves as one of the main sources of liquidity in the market. Also to the situation with the coronavirus epidemic, the RBA decision on the interest rate is in the spotlight on Thursday. As many expected, the Australian regulator took additional measures to support the economy and lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25%. At the same time, the published Australian labor market report for February added some optimism to the markets. So, the level of employment in February rose sharply by 26.7K jobs after rising by 12.9K last month. Analysts had expected an increase of only 10K. The unemployment rate in February unexpectedly dropped from 5.3% to 5.1% with a constant forecast.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing, renewing local highs since February 28. Amid a sharply negative picture in the stock markets and the difficult epidemiological situation in the world, investors are inclined to buy the dollar as a source of liquidity. Demand for the yen as a shelter asset remains quite low, although it allows its dynamics to be relatively calm. Additional pressure on the position of the Japanese currency has published poor macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Thus, according to the results of February, CPI slowed down from +0.7% YoY to +0.4% YoY against the forecast of growth to +0.8% YoY. However, the activity index in all sectors of Japan at the beginning of the year steadily increased by 0.8% MoM, which was significantly better than market expectations +0.2% MoM.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices show a negative trend, however, they make no attempt to consolidate below local lows since November 2019, renewed at the beginning of the week. Investors prefer the American currency to the precious metal, fearing that measures taken by the world Central Bank will be insufficient to curb negative trends. The US cannot yet calm the markets, which reflected in the sharp collapse of stock exchanges the day before. The Fed has promised to restore its mechanism for issuing loans directly to companies and households, which it has used during the 2008 financial crisis.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR has shown rather active growth against USD during today's Asian session, recovering from an active rally in the last 3 trading days, which led to the updating of record lows of April 2017. The growth of the pair is observed against the background of profit taking by investors at the end of the week, while the fundamental picture is not changing much. World regulators are taking the most decisive measures to stabilize the situation, but the panic in the market has not yet been stopped. USD, despite the reduction in the rate to almost zero, is still considered a risk aversion and serves as a reliable source of liquidity. Macroeconomic statistics published from the euro area and Germany turned out to be mixed, but, as has already become usual recently, has remained without proper attention. German IFO Business Climate index fell from 96 to 87.7 points in March. German IFO Current Assessment index for the same period decreased from 99 to 93.8 points. German IFO Expectations index fell from 93.2 points to 82 points. At the same time, Construction Output data in the euro area in January reflected an increase from –2.3% YoY to 6% YoY, which was noticeably better than market expectations of 1.3% YoY.

GBP/USD

GBP is trading upwards against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record lows since 1985. The instrument adds more than 1.2% and is testing the level of 1.1650 for a breakout. Investors are focused on yesterday's meeting of the Bank of England, at which it was decided to lower the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.1%, trying to minimize the damage from the spread of the coronavirus epidemic and slowdown the global economy. In addition, the British regulator increased the volume of the quantitative easing program from 435B to 645B pounds.

AUD/USD

AUD strengthens against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from record lows updated the day before. The corrective sentiment on the instrument began to strengthen on Thursday, which allowed AUD to win back most of the losses. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced next stimulus measures following other global regulators. The interest rate was reduced from 0.50% to 0.25%, while traders expressed cautious optimism in connection with the publication of a relatively good Australian labor market report for February. However, the markets agree that the February statistics weakly reflects the real situation in the economy and the March data will be significantly worse.

USD/JPY

USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since February 24. The decline in the instrument proceeds against the background of the growth of correctional sentiments in USD at the end of this week, while the general situation in the market does not change much. Macroeconomic statistics fade into the background, especially when it comes to February or even January data, and the market is firmly focused on the coronavirus pandemic and related measures that world regulators are taking to stabilize the economy.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, correcting against the background of a slight decline in USD. In addition, the low exchange rate of the instrument made the purchase of gold an attractive investment, given that fundamentally the situation in the markets does not change much. Gold is also supported by the rapid decline in interest rates by global regulators and additional quantitative easing measures designed to help a slowing economy.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR shows strong growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a weak correction, which gradually comes to the market after the rally of USD. Last week, due to a sharp collapse in the quotes of risky assets in the market, EUR updated its record lows since April 2017. Despite the fact that coronavirus remains one of the main topics in the current market, investor sentiment is gradually improving. The active measures that global regulators are taking seem to have taken, if not economic, then psychological action. Macroeconomic statistics published on Friday again turned out to be rather depressing, but did not have a noticeable effect on the market. German Producer Price Index in February fell by 0.4% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% MoM. The euro area's Current Account n.s.a. collapsed from EUR 51.2B to 8.7B in January, while forecasts suggested a decrease of only EUR 20.5B.

GBP/USD

GBP is showing uncertain growth against USD during today's Asian session, trying to win back losses at the opening. The recovery of the instrument proceeds against the background of the growth of corrective sentiment in the market, as investors calmed down after the active support measures undertaken by the leading regulators of the world. Last Thursday, the Bank of England lowered rates to a record level of 0.1% and significantly expanded its quantitative easing program in an effort to minimize the damage from the coronavirus crisis. It is not yet clear how exactly these measures will affect the UK economy, but the markets still got the main signal – politicians and economists are ready to undertake emergency measures to deal with the crisis. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the UK was ambiguous. The UK Public Sector Net Borrowing reflected a sharp increase from GBP –12.433B to –0.394B. However, the figure turned out better than the forecast of +0.85B pounds.

AUD/USD

AUD is falling against USD during today's Asian session; however, it shows a tendency to corrective growth against the background of some stabilization of the situation in the foreign exchange markets. The active measures that global regulators are taking to curb negative trends in the economy seem to be gradually bearing fruit. A quantitative increase in indicators is out of the question, but moral support is undoubtedly being formed. In addition, investors are very optimistic about the experience of China in the fight against coronavirus. Last Friday, the People’s Bank of China kept its key rate at 4.05%, and economic activity in the country is gradually recovering, which also gives hope for a favorable outcome of the coronavirus crisis outside the PRC. Only a few publications from the USA are in the spotlight today, and interesting statistics from Australia will appear on Tuesday when business activity data from Commonwealth Bank is published.

USD/JPY

USD is falling against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated last week. The instrument loses about 0.7%, testing the level of 110.00 for a breakdown. The growth of correctional dynamics is facilitated by a slight improvement in market sentiment. Active support of the global economy by leading financial regulators had a calming effect on investors, while previous negative assessments of the coronavirus epidemic did not change significantly. In addition, investors still use JPY as a safe haven asset, although USD looks a bit more attractive during a major crisis.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling again during today's Asian session, correcting after moderate growth at the end of last week, caused by further purchase of safe haven assets amid concerns about the economic consequences of coronavirus. Demand for gold remains quite low, as investors seek to seize the source of increased liquidity in the market by actively buying USD. However, against the background of a slight improvement in the situation and measures taken by leading regulators, the demand for liquidity is somewhat reduced and gold in this case looks like a very attractive investment.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is actively growing, retesting the level of 1.0800 for a breakout. EUR is supported by growing political uncertainty in the USA and new measures to support the European economy. On Sunday, US parliamentarians blocked a bill to stimulate the economy amounting to more than $1 trillion but investors continue to hope that additional support will be provided anyway. Now, the Fed is trying to push the measures for virtually unlimited QE, which should help restore the stalled sectors of the economy. The EU Council on Economics and Finance has made an unprecedented decision and suspended the Stability and Growth Pact, one of the main documents of the EU, which implies that countries must adhere to a certain level of the budget deficit and not exceed a predetermined public debt ceiling. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the publication of a block of statistics on business activity in Europe for March.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in an upward direction, recovering from another decline at the beginning of the week, which violated the plans of investors who hoped to see the corrective growth of the oversold pound. GBP is supported by a slight weakening of USD, as the Senate slowed down the adoption of the bill on new stimulus measures. Traders fear the development of a new American political crisis, which would be completely out of place, given the current realities and the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. On Tuesday, traders expect the publication of March statistics on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the services sector from Markit. Also, today, Meeting Minutes of the Committee on the financial policy will be published.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing significantly, adding more than 1.1% and trying to consolidate above the level of 0.5900. The instrument is actively being strengthened after the US Federal Reserve's statement on the purchase of treasury securities and bonds in virtually unlimited quantities. Also, investors are focused on the fact that the Senate slowed down the adoption of new stimulus measures proposed by the Donald Trump administration, and this could lead to an increase in political uncertainty in the country. Australian macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday was ambiguous. Thus, the Commonwealth Bank PMI in the service sector fell from 49 to 39.8 points for March, which was significantly worse than market expectations of 48.3 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI for the same period from 50.2 points corrected only to 50.1 points, which was better than forecasts and contributed to the growth of optimistic market sentiment.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair significantly reduced, retreating from local highs since February 24, renewed yesterday. Investors dropped some of the long USD positions amid unprecedented economic support measures by the US Federal Reserve. On Monday, the regulator announced unlimited QE, while the Senate suspended the approval of the bill on economic incentives amounting to more than $1 trillion. Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday slightly disappointed investors. So, Manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank for March fell from 47.8 to 44.8 points against the forecast of a decrease to 47.6 points.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are actively rising, continuing to develop a confident “bullish” signal formed yesterday. The instrument is supported by the weakening of USD amid the launch of new Fed measures to support the economy. In addition to the virtually unlimited volume of purchases of US Treasury bonds, the regulator will prepare new programs for lending to companies and households.

Meanwhile, the market situation remains difficult due to the further spread of the coronavirus epidemic. The United States is trying to significantly limit the movement of citizens within the country, while Italy has completely banned all domestic travel to contain the increase in the number of deaths. In China, the number of cases is growing again; however, as noted in official statistics, most of these cases are imported from abroad.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR again shows active growth during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse that formed at the beginning of this week. USD has come under pressure amid unprecedented economic support measures taken by the Fed over the past few days. On Monday, the regulator announced an unlimited quantitative easing program, as well as new lending programs for small and medium-sized businesses. The EU, in turn, will suspend one of its fundamental documents, which imposes a restriction on the size of the budget deficit and public debt for EU members. The macroeconomic statistics from the euro area published on Tuesday was quite weak. Composite Manufacturing PMI of the euro area in March fell from 51.6 to 31.4 points against the forecast of 38.8 points.

GBP/USD

GBP is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 20. Support for the "bullish" sentiment is still provided by the weakening USD against the backdrop of the announcement of new measures to support the US economy. At the same time, the liquidity crisis in the market continues to provide significant support to USD, and the overall risk demand remains rather weak. Macroeconomic statistics from the UK released on Tuesday turned out to be ambiguous, but did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. Markit Services PMI in March fell from 53.2 to 35.7 points against the forecast of a decrease to 45 points. At the same time, Manufacturing PMI over the same period decreased from 51.7 to 48 points, which turned out to be better than market expectations of 45 points.

NZD/USD

NZD is showing moderate growth against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 18. Active support for the instrument is still provided by the growth of correctional sentiments in USD against the background of the aggressive Fed policy aimed at helping the US economy. However, the general tension in the market associated with the risks of the further spread of the coronavirus pandemic remains, and investors are in no hurry to sell USD. Published on Wednesday, macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand slightly supported NZD. In February, export volumes grew by USD 4.92B, accelerating from the previous value of USD 4.689B. Imports for the same period slowed from USD 5.103B to USD 4.33B, which led to a slight increase in the trade surplus in February. In monthly terms, in February, the trade balance entered the green zone at USD 594M after a deficit of USD 414M in January.

USD/JPY

USD shows ambiguous dynamics against JPY, staying close to its monthly highs amid continued market anxiety about the prospects for the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and its negative consequences. USD somewhat staggered after the Fed representatives announced an unlimited program of quantitative easing and also promised to provide favorable lending programs for small and medium-sized businesses in the United States. However, the corrective sentiment on USD did not lead to a noticeable demand for the yen, which is considered a safe asset. The Bank of Japan is still lingering with new measures to support the economy, but its arsenal is not so large, since the annual asset purchase program for JPY 1T has been operating since 2013, and in 2016 the regulator increased its volume to JPY 6T. Earlier this month, the Bank of Japan announced the possibility of temporarily doubling the quantitative easing program, but there are still doubts in the market regarding the regulator’s readiness to take such a step.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth for two consecutive sessions, which led to the renewal of local highs of March 12. Negative trend emerged due to fixing of long positions in gold, while the fundamental picture on the market is not changing much. The increased interest in the asset is associated with unprecedented measures taken by the Fed in an attempt to support the slowing US economy amid the threats posed by the coronavirus pandemic.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately, renewing local highs since March 19. The euro is recovering amid increasing correctional sentiment in the US currency, which only intensified with the adoption of new unprecedented stimulus measures from the Fed. Yesterday, it became known that the US Senate also managed to negotiate with Donald Trump’s administration and approved a bill on economic support worth $2 trillion. Traders were inspired by Trump’s speech, as he expressed a desire to remove quarantine in the country by Easter (mid-April). Macroeconomic statistics released yesterday were expectedly weak. Thus, the German Ifo Business Climate Index for March fell from 87.7 to 86.1 points with a neutral outlook. German Business Expectations fell from 82.0 to 79.7 points, which was worse than market expectations of 81.9 points. German Current Assessment for the same period decreased from 93.8 to 93.0 points against expectations of 93.6 points.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is falling, retreating from the local maximums, renewed yesterday, currently losing about 0.10% and trying to consolidate below 1.1870. The pound, like many other currencies on the market, is growing amid some improvement in investor sentiment. Investors hope that new unprecedented US economic support measures will help curb the development of negative trends in the global economy. Yesterday, traders focused on a block of UK consumer inflation data. For February, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% MoM, which was slightly better than market expectations +0.3% MoM, and 1.7% YoY, which coincided with investors' expectations. Core CPI without seasonal adjustment for February accelerated from +0.2% YoY to +0.4% YoY. The Retail Price Index, as expected, rose for February by 0.5% MoM after a decline by 0.4% MoM for the previous month. On Thursday, investors are awaiting the Bank of England interest rate decision. It is assumed that the regulator may take additional mitigation measures, although the key rate has already remained at the lows.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is falling, retreating from the local highs, renewed yesterday. The negative dynamics is mainly due to technical factors, while the position of USD is still under pressure amid a slight increase in investor interest in risk. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Wednesday was ambiguous. So, the Durable Goods Orders for February grew by 1.2% MoM after a growth of 0.1% MoM for the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.8% MoM. Orders for capital goods excluding the defense and aviation sectors in February fell by 0.8% MoM after growth by 1% MoM for January. Experts predicted a decrease of only 0.4% MoM. On Thursday, investors are focused on the Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of March 20. Due to quarantine, the number of applications is expected to rise sharply to 1 million.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is falling, retreating from the local highs, renewed on Tuesday. However, in the short term, the dynamics of the instrument is still flat, and there is no reason to form a full reversal of the trend. Traders noted the growth of correctional sentiments in the US currency, which felt the strength of stimulating measures by the US Federal Reserve. The optimism to the market was also added by the speech of US President Donald Trump, who expressed the hope that most of the restrictive measures may be removed closer to mid-April.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are correcting, continuing the development of the “bearish” impulse formed yesterday when the instrument renewed its local highs since March 12. Nevertheless, the depreciation so far can only be associated with the technical factors of profitable positions closing, while fundamentally the situation in the markets remains very depressing. The new package of measures to support the US economy, which the Senate approved the day before, can provide significant help in containing the negative consequences for the global economy but the source of the problem itself – the spread of the virus – still generates significant risks.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR is trading up against USD during today's Asian session, updating local highs of March 17. The instrument is supported by the growth of correctional sentiments in USD, which intensified with the adoption of unprecedented incentives for the US economy. Analysts reckon that approved bills will significantly limit the economic damage from the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. Meanwhile, data from the US labor market, released on Thursday, pointed at rapidly growing risks. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 20 sharply increased from 282K to 3283K, which significantly exceeded expectations of 1000K.

GBP/USD

GBP is growing against USD at the end of the trading week and can complete it with steady growth at the highs since March 16. This week’s growth is facilitated by a decline in USD, as well as a slight improvement in investor sentiment in response to the approved stimulus package in the US, which is expected to minimize damage from a slowing economy. Yesterday, investors were focused on a meeting of the Bank of England on monetary policy. As expected, this time the British regulator decided not to rush to introduce new measures to support the economy, especially since the rate is already at record low level of 0.1%. The Bank also maintained a quantitative easing program at GBP 645B. Today, during the day, markets expect publication of data on Nationwide Housing Prices in the UK, as well as the release of the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin for Q1 2020.

NZD/USD

NZD shows an uptrend against USD during today's Asian session, trying to consolidate above 0.6000, the highest level since March 17. Correction of USD across the entire spectrum of the market contributes to maintaining the "bullish" trend of the instrument, while there are not many fundamental reasons for the growth of NZD. The macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand published on Friday was weak. The ANZ Consumer Confidence in March showed a sharp decline from 122.1 to 106.3 points. Total Filled Jobs in February rose slightly from 2.2M to 2.21M, but analysts caution against premature conclusions, since it is obvious that the March figures will be much worse.

USD/JPY

USD is rapidly falling against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing to develop the "bearish" momentum that formed the day before. The instrument loses about 1%, testing the level of 108.20 for a breakdown. Demand for the yen is growing amid large-scale correction of USD across the entire spectrum of the market in response to new measures to support the US economy from the administration of Donald Trump and the Fed. Investors also win back macroeconomic statistics on the US labor market published on Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 20 sharply increased from 282K to 3283K. This is not to say that the growth of the indicator was somewhat unexpected for the market, but the real results were closer to the upper threshold of expected values. In addition, this figure is not finalized, since many Americans simply could not complete the application on time due to long queues and congestion in Internet resources.

XAU/USD

Gold prices show a moderate decline during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs, updated the day before. The instrument loses about 0.28%, testing the level of 1620.00 for a breakdown. Gold is corrected after explosive growth at the beginning of the week, due to the return of investors after a period of sales. The panic in the market subsided slightly against the backdrop of the US government taking significant measures to support the economy, which pushed the market to diversify. Leading analytical companies noted the possibility of buying a precious metal. For example, Goldman Sachs analysts expect that in the next few months gold can reach 1800.00.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR is declining against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since March 17, updated last Friday. Investors close part of the existing long positions, which provokes the appearance of corrective dynamics for the instrument, while the fundamental picture changes little. Demand for USD remains high, despite unprecedented measures to support the US economy and injecting huge amounts of liquidity. Last Friday's macroeconomic statistics from the US was ambiguous. The February data on Personal Income and Spending in the US provided insignificant support for the market, while the March Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflected a decrease from 95.9 to 89.1 points against the forecast of 90 points. Today, investors are focused on the publication of statistics on business sentiment in the euro area in March. In addition, investors are expecting the release of data on consumer inflation for March in Germany.

GBP/USD

GBP is falling against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs of March 13, updated at the end of last trading week. USD weakened significantly amid market reactions to new stimulus measures from the US government, as well as the publication of disappointing data from the US, indicating growing risks for the national economy due to the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. British investors today expect the publication of February data on the dynamics of consumer credit. On Tuesday, the UK will release an updated estimate of GDP dynamics for Q4 2019.

NZD/USD

NZD shows ambiguous trading dynamics against USD during today's Asian session. The instrument is trading near 0.6030, feeling the pressure from the strengthening USD, which is recovering from a weekly fall. Demand for USD is growing again amid the further spread of the coronavirus pandemic, as investors fear that government action may not be enough. However, a certain effect of incentive measures is certainly observed. In particular, amid the approval by the US Senate of an economic support program worth more than USD 2 trillion, a significant reduction in the dollar financing deficit was achieved.

USD/JPY

USD is trading in both directions against JPY during today's Asian session. After a steady decline at the end of last week, which led to the renewal of local lows of March 18, USD is again prone to growth, receiving support from the worsening forecasts of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy. However, since the Fed managed to satisfy the increased demand for USD abroad, it is becoming increasingly difficult for investors to choose a safe haven asset for themselves. Interesting macroeconomic statistics from Japan is not expected on Monday, but on Tuesday February data on Retail Sales and Industrial Production will be published.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are declining during today's Asian session, continuing the development of flat dynamics for the instrument, which is traced from March 25. Demand for the asset is somewhat reduced amid the recovering USD, but investors are not in a hurry to transfer to USD en masse. Last week, disappointing macroeconomic statistics on jobless claims frightened investors. In addition, the Fed, through the activation of emergency mechanisms, managed to satisfy the increased demand for USD abroad, which somewhat reduced the hype around the lack of liquidity in the market.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is developing a correctional trend, approaching strong support around 1.1000. EUR decline is due to the growing uncertainty in the market, which expects some improvement in the situation. Many governments have taken incentive measures to support their economies and strengthened quarantine against the spread of the epidemic. Now, it remains only to wait until the peak of incidence passes, and the world economy begins to recover from these shocks. Published on Monday, EU macroeconomic statistics were poor, which increased pressure on the euro. Thus, German HICP for March fell from +1.7% YoY to +1.3% YoY, which was worse than market expectations of +1.4% YoY. In monthly terms, the index growth slowed to a minimum of +0.1% MoM.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading in a downward direction, continuing the development of a “bearish” impulse formed yesterday. After a rather active “bullish” rally last week, provoked by the emergence of new stimulus measures by the US government and the Fed, GBP again is weakening against USD amid extremely low interest of investors in risky assets. UK macroeconomic statistics released earlier this week only reinforced this trend. So, BoE Consumer Credit for February fell from 1.107 billion to 0.9 billion pounds, which was worse than market expectations of 1.1 billion. On Tuesday, GfK Consumer Confidence data for March appeared. The indicator expectedly fell from –7 to –9 points but analysts' forecasts suggested a much more significant drop to –15 points. During the day, investors expect the publication of statistics on the Current Account and the dynamics of Q4 2019 UK GDP.

NZD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair shows flat dynamics, consolidating near the level of 0.6000. Last week’s active growth of NZD was replaced by multidirectional trading amid yet another strengthening of the American currency, which is in demand amid increasing uncertainty in the market. Now, as most of the measures to support the economy and limit the spread of the epidemic have already been taken, the most unpleasant time is coming for investors – the time for waiting. New Zealand macroeconomic statistics released on Tuesday put pressure on the instrument. Thus, the business optimism index from the National Bank of New Zealand in March fell from –19.4 points to a record value of –63.5 points. Analysts had expected a decline only to –24.1 points. The forecast of activity from RBNZ in March fell from 12% to –26.7%, which also was worse than market expectations of 7.3%.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, retreating from local lows since March 18, renewed yesterday. Demand for the dollar and the yen is again growing amid increased uncertainty but interest in the dollar, as expected, is slightly stronger. Recently, investors are increasingly reacting to the publication of macroeconomic statistics for March, which reflects a sharp deterioration due to the coronavirus crisis. So, the data released yesterday, business activity in the industrial sector of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (USA) fell sharply to the level of –70 points in spite of the expected growth from 1.2 to 6.2 points. On Tuesday, Japan released a block of retail and industrial data for February. Given the obvious difference between the February and March data, the market ignored most of the information.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are falling, continuing the development of an uncertain "bearish" trend in the ultra-short term. The gradual strengthening of the US currency puts pressure on the instrument but investors are not in a hurry to close their positions amid growing uncertainty in the market. The global economy is in recession, and the recovery process will be very difficult, especially since the peak of the epidemic has not yet been passed.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR declines against USD during today's Asian session, developing a "bearish" impulse that formed at the beginning of the week, when the instrument retreated from its local highs since March 17. EUR loses significantly to USD amid continuing uncertainty due to the raging coronavirus epidemic; however, investors' attention is gradually shifting to macroeconomic indicators from the US, which inhibits the growth of consumer activity. Macroeconomic statistics show negative results not only in the USA. The data indicated a slowdown in consumer inflation in the euro area from 1.2% YoY to 0.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than expert estimates. At the same time, investors drew attention to the surprisingly stable results on the labor market from Germany. The number of unemployed grew by only 1K, while analysts expected a growth of 29K. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5%. Such strong results are due to the fact that data collection in Germany was completed before the start of national quarantine, and therefore they do not reflect the real situation on the market at the moment.

GBP/USD

GBP is falling against USD during today's Asian session, but the dynamics of the instrument in the short term remains flat. After a long decline last week, USD is trying to recover, but it has not yet been able to go into corrective growth, as investors are worried about the increasing uncertainty in the market and the disappointing macroeconomic data from the US. Today, traders are focused on the publication of statistics on business activity in the UK and the USA for March. Analysts expect a decline in all key indicators; however, American data can again exert the greatest pressure. In addition, today the release of ADP Employment Change report is expected. Experts expect to see a decrease in employment by 154K, but it is possible that the scale of the crisis in the labor market is underestimated. At the end of the week, the US will publish the final report on the labor market for March, which can deliver several anti-records at once.

AUD/USD

AUD shows multidirectional dynamics paired with USD, trading near 0.6100. USD failed to win back the losses of the past week, and is waiting for new drivers on the market. It is possible that the report on the US labor market, which will be released at the end of this week, will help to restore former activity; however, investors are afraid that this activity will be "bearish". In the meantime, a good macroeconomic statistics from Australia hinders further decline in the instrument. AiG Manufacturing Index went up from 44.3 to 53.7 points in March. Commonwealth Bank Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.7 points over the same period, which in the current situation can be considered positive. However, it is likely that the collected statistics are not entirely relevant, since it only partially captures the period of mass quarantine.

USD/JPY

USD is rising against JPY during today's Asian session, retreating from its local lows, updated earlier this week. The instrument adds about 0.17% and is testing the level of 107.70 for a breakout. Investors are noticeably frightened by the development of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States, which has already taken first place in the world in the number of confirmed cases. The pressure on USD is also reinforced by macroeconomic statistics from the United States, which gradually exerts more and more influence on the sentiment of traders. Investors are awaiting the publication of the March report on the US labor market, which will allow drawing preliminary conclusions about how much the world's first economy could suffer from the crisis. Macroeconomic data released in Japan on Wednesday turned out to be controversial. Tankan Large All Industry Capex in Q1 2020 slowed down from 6.8% QoQ to 1.8% QoQ, which was significantly better than market expectations of –1.1% QoQ.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, correcting after an active decline, which was triggered by another attempt of strengthening USD and the emergence of strong Chinese statistics. Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI in March rose sharply from 29.6 to 52.3 points, which was significantly better than market expectations of 37.8 points. NBS Manufacturing PMI for the same period jumped from 35.7 to 52 points with a forecast of growth of only 45 points. The data from China were strong today as well; however, gold growth is again noticeable amid the expectations of the publication of the March US labor market report at the end of the week. Anyway, Caixin Manufacturing PMI in March rose from 40.3 to 50.1 points, while investors expected it to rise to only 46 points.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair is falling, continuing the development of a downward correctional impulse formed at the beginning of the week. USD strengthens, supported by rising concerns about the further spread of coronavirus. In turn, the published macroeconomic data holds back the “bullish” activity, indicating a severe economic crisis that erupted in the American (and not only) economy. Yesterday, investors were focused on business activity data in Europe and the United States. In all areas, activity fell as expected, although some actual data were slightly better than forecasts. EU Manufacturing PMI for March fell from 44.8 to 44.5 points against the forecast of a weakening to 44.7 points. German data fell from 45.7 to 45.4 points, which also was worse than analysts' forecasts of 45.5 points.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian trading session, the GBP/USD pair shows flat dynamics, trading near 1.2400. USD is still in demand as a shelter asset, however, it is clear that the “bullish” activity is gradually slowing down, partly due to the expectation of new drivers in the market. At the end of this week, a March report on the US labor market will be released, which may put significant pressure on the position of the US currency. Yesterday, investors were focused on the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls report. At the end of March, the employment decreased by 27K after rising by 179K last month. However, the data are positive, as analysts expected a much more significant decrease, by 150K. On Wednesday, the British data on business activity slightly supported the pound. Markit Manufacturing PMI index fell from 48.0 to 47.8 points, which was better than market expectations, which suggested a weakening of the indicator to 47 points.

NZD/USD

Today, during the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD pair is growing slightly, retreating from local lows renewed yesterday. Now, the instrument has added about 0.35% and is testing the level of 0.5930 for a breakout. “Bullish” activity in the US currency is gradually decreasing at the end of the week when the US will publish its March report on the labor market, which will reflect the magnitude of the impending economic crisis. Yesterday, statistics on American business activity were released, as well as an ADP employment report, which unexpectedly was much better than its negative forecasts (–27K versus –150K). Markit Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.2 to 48.5 points with a neutral outlook. The ISM Manufacturing Employment decreased from 46.9 to 43.8 points against the forecast of 43.6 points. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.1 to 49.1 points, while forecasts suggested it would drop to 45 points.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian trading session, the USD/JPY pair is growing slightly, correcting after yesterday's renewal of local lows since March 18. The dollar and the yen are still competing for the title of the best shelter asset but the current week for the US currency is quite difficult. Poor macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as expectations for the publication of the March report on the labor market at the end of the week, put significant pressure on the dollar. Also, the United States remains the main focus of the currently raging epidemic of coronavirus, which greatly increases the risks of uncertainty.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian trading session, the price of gold show flat dynamics, correcting after the growth of the instrument yesterday. However, it could not consolidate above the level of $1.600. Demand for the precious metal remains high amid extremely low investor interest in risk. Also, traders are wary of buying the dollar amid poor macroeconomic statistics and pending Friday's publication of the March report on the US labor market. The growth of gold also due to the closure of gold refineries around the world amid the strict quarantine measures that governments are taking to curb the coronavirus epidemic.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR shows a "bearish" trend against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a downtrend since the beginning of the current trading week. USD is still in high demand, as investors are scared by the situation in the world. So far, depressing macroeconomic publications from the US have little influence on USD; however, the situation is gradually changing, and it will not be possible to ignore evidence of the coming deep economic crisis. The data from the US reflected a sharp increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 27 by a record 6.6M, which was almost half worse than the forecast. Today, investors expect the publication of the March report on the US labor market, which also does not bode well. Data from the euro are in the background for the time being. On Friday, European countries will continue to report on business activity in the services sector for March, and the euro area will release February statistics on retail sales.

GBP/USD

GBP begins the last day of the trading week with a flat dynamics against USD, continuing to trade near 1.2400. Demand for USD is supported by a high interest of investors in safe assets and additional sources of liquidity; however, traders are in no hurry to actively sell GBP amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US. The prospects for the US economy have deteriorated markedly, despite the fact that the peak of the coronavirus epidemic has not yet been overcome. In the current conditions, the onset of a recession in the US economy is almost inevitable, and the darkest forecasts even suggest the beginning of a period of a new "depression". Today investors are focused on the publication of the March report on the US labor market. Among other things, analysts expect a sharp reduction in the number of new jobs and a jump in unemployment to 3.8%.

AUD/USD

AUD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows since March 26, updated the day before. Slight support for AUD has increased pressure on USD as negative macroeconomic statistics from the US accumulate. USD is still supported by the status of a safe haven currency; however, investors are seriously scared by the pace of slowdown in the first world economy. Meanwhile, weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia came out today, which, however, was not a surprise. AiG Performance of Construction Index in March fell from 42.7 to 37.9 points. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI for the same period corrected from 39.8 to 38.5 points with a neutral outlook. Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI in March fell from 40.7 to 39.4 points. Consumer sentiment, in turn, was supported by statistics from China, which is gradually recovering from the epidemic. Jibun Bank Services PMI in March jumped from 26.5 to 43 points.

USD/JPY

USD shows weak growth against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a "bullish" impulse that formed yesterday. The instrument adds about 0.07% and is actively testing the level of 108.00 for a breakout. USD ignored yesterday's publication of statistics from the US, indicating a record increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims, as investors are still interested in a source of additional liquidity. The "bullish" activity of traders in the first hours of trading on Friday is noticeably lower, since investors have no desire to maintain long positions on the weekend, and in addition, the market expects the publication of a disappointing US labor market report for March. Today's data from Japan indicated a decrease in Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI from in March from 46.8 to 33.8 points against the forecast of a reduction to 32.7 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth triggered by the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the US. Demand for the asset remains quite high against the backdrop of the raging pandemic of coronavirus. Moreover, analysts expect that with the publication of data indicating the beginning of a deep global economic crisis, the demand for the instrument will only increase.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR shows a "bearish" trend against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a downtrend since the beginning of the current trading week. USD is still in high demand, as investors are scared by the situation in the world. So far, depressing macroeconomic publications from the US have little influence on USD; however, the situation is gradually changing, and it will not be possible to ignore evidence of the coming deep economic crisis. The data from the US reflected a sharp increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 27 by a record 6.6M, which was almost half worse than the forecast. Today, investors expect the publication of the March report on the US labor market, which also does not bode well. Data from the euro are in the background for the time being. On Friday, European countries will continue to report on business activity in the services sector for March, and the euro area will release February statistics on retail sales.

GBP/USD

GBP begins the last day of the trading week with a flat dynamics against USD, continuing to trade near 1.2400. Demand for USD is supported by a high interest of investors in safe assets and additional sources of liquidity; however, traders are in no hurry to actively sell GBP amid the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US. The prospects for the US economy have deteriorated markedly, despite the fact that the peak of the coronavirus epidemic has not yet been overcome. In the current conditions, the onset of a recession in the US economy is almost inevitable, and the darkest forecasts even suggest the beginning of a period of a new "depression". Today investors are focused on the publication of the March report on the US labor market. Among other things, analysts expect a sharp reduction in the number of new jobs and a jump in unemployment to 3.8%.

AUD/USD

AUD is showing slight growth against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local lows since March 26, updated the day before. Slight support for AUD has increased pressure on USD as negative macroeconomic statistics from the US accumulate. USD is still supported by the status of a safe haven currency; however, investors are seriously scared by the pace of slowdown in the first world economy. Meanwhile, weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia came out today, which, however, was not a surprise. AiG Performance of Construction Index in March fell from 42.7 to 37.9 points. Commonwealth Bank Services PMI for the same period corrected from 39.8 to 38.5 points with a neutral outlook. Commonwealth Bank Composite PMI in March fell from 40.7 to 39.4 points. Consumer sentiment, in turn, was supported by statistics from China, which is gradually recovering from the epidemic. Jibun Bank Services PMI in March jumped from 26.5 to 43 points.

USD/JPY

USD shows weak growth against JPY during today's Asian session, continuing the development of a "bullish" impulse that formed yesterday. The instrument adds about 0.07% and is actively testing the level of 108.00 for a breakout. USD ignored yesterday's publication of statistics from the US, indicating a record increase in the number of Initial Jobless Claims, as investors are still interested in a source of additional liquidity. The "bullish" activity of traders in the first hours of trading on Friday is noticeably lower, since investors have no desire to maintain long positions on the weekend, and in addition, the market expects the publication of a disappointing US labor market report for March. Today's data from Japan indicated a decrease in Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI from in March from 46.8 to 33.8 points against the forecast of a reduction to 32.7 points.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are falling during today's Asian session, correcting after strong growth triggered by the publication of data on applications for unemployment benefits in the US. Demand for the asset remains quite high against the backdrop of the raging pandemic of coronavirus. Moreover, analysts expect that with the publication of data indicating the beginning of a deep global economic crisis, the demand for the instrument will only increase.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing moderately, retreating from local lows, renewed yesterday. As before, the current EUR’s attempt to strengthen is technical, while the demand for it remains quite low. However, investors are optimistic about the reports of European countries, which indicate a decrease in cases of new infections with coronavirus, which gives some hope and supports the euro. Published macroeconomic statistics from Europe so far leaves much to be desired. So, the data on the dynamics of production orders in Germany released on Monday reflected a decrease of 1.4% MoM in February after an increase of 4.8% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 1.9% MoM. According to preliminary estimates for April, the Sentix investor confidence indicator crashed from –17.1 to –42.9 points, which was noticeably worse than market expectations of –30.3 points. On Tuesday, investors are focused on German statistics on the dynamics of industrial production for February.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is growing, retreating from local lows of March 27. The pound grows after an uncertain decline last week, which forced him to retreat from highs since mid-March. Some pressure on the British currency has the hospitalization of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Previously, he was self-isolated and worked remotely due to infection with coronavirus but later he was still forced to seek medical help. British macroeconomic statistics remain negative. So, on Monday the index of business activity in the construction sector came out, which fell from 52.6 to 39.3 points for March against the forecast of a decrease to 44 points.

AUD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair is growing, continuing the development of the “bullish” momentum formed at the beginning of the week. Now, the instrument has added about 1% and is testing the level of 0.6150 for a breakout. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the Australian regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy and kept the rate at a minimum level of 0.25%. The accompanying statement noted significant risks of a slowdown in the global economy due to the coronavirus pandemic. Published statistics reflected a sharp decline in the AiG index of activity in the service sector of Australia in March from 47 to 38.7 points. The vacancy index for the same period from ANZ fell 10.3% after rising 0.7% in February. Experts expected the appearance of negative dynamics but expected a decrease of only 2.9%.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair significantly reduced, retreating from the local highs, renewed at the beginning of the week. Now, the instrument has lost about 0.4% and is testing the level of 108.70 for a breakdown. The yen is supported by some correction in the US currency and the publication of positive Japanese macroeconomic statistics for February. In turn, its more confident growth is hindered by fears of a state of emergency in the country today against the background of a sharp increase in the number of patients with coronavirus in Tokyo. Japan's matching indicators index in February rose from 95.2 to 95.8 points, which was better than market expectations of 95.1 points. The leading indicators index for the same period jumped from 90.5 to 92.1 points with a forecast of 90.4 points.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are consolidating, retreating from local highs, which were renewed after a sharp increase in the instrument yesterday. The instrument is supported by the strengthening of alarming market sentiment due to a sharp slowdown in the global economy. The quarantine measures that many countries take today in connection with the spread of coronavirus have an extremely negative effect on almost all sectors of the economy, threatening the onset of a long period of recession or even depression. Demand for the dollar remains high but also suffers from the publication of disappointing data from the US, which indicates a record drop in the labor market, rising unemployment, and declining manufacturing activity.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR is weakening against USD during today's Asian session, falling again after strong corrective growth yesterday, which allowed EUR to retreat from local lows since March 25. Timid optimism regarding the stabilization of the situation with the coronavirus makes its way to the market and facilitates reduction of USD, which still serves as a safe haven. The countries of Europe that have suffered the most from the epidemic publish statistics that allow to hope that the peak incidence rate has already been passed, and a number of states have even thought about easing the previously imposed restrictions. Macroeconomic statistics from Europe published on Tuesday also did not hinder the strengthening of EUR. February data on the dynamics of industrial production in Germany indicated an increase of 0.3% MoM, which was much better than market expectations of –0.9% MoM. In annual terms, production rates slowed down from –0.9% YoY to –1.2% YoY, but again came out stronger than their forecasts (–3.9% YoY).

GBP/USD

GBP shows the flat dynamics of trading during today's Asian session, slightly correcting after active growth yesterday. GBP was supported by a slight increase in optimism in the market, which is associated with the approaching peak of the coronavirus epidemic in Europe and the USA. At the same time, British investors are in no hurry to open new long positions on GBP, since Boris Johnson is still in intensive care, and the dynamics of the incidence in the UK continues to trend upward. UK macroeconomic statistics released yesterday were neutral. Halifax House Prices in March showed zero dynamics after rising by 0.2% MoM last month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at 0.1% MoM. In terms of annual growth rates, the index showed an increase of 3%, accelerating from the previous value of 2.8%.

AUD/USD

AUD declines against USD during today's Asian session, retreating from local highs since March 31, updated the day before. The instrument loses about 0.50%, testing the level of 0.6130 for a breakdown. The pair's decline is taking place against the backdrop of a partial restoration of USD, which was under pressure the day before amid the first signs of stabilization of the situation with coronavirus in the main foci in Europe and the USA. Moreover, Italy and Spain report a drop in mortality, which prompted analysts to predict the timing of the beginning of the weakening of restrictive measures in these countries. The pressure on AUD on Wednesday is exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Home Loans issued in Australia in February decreased by 1.7% MoM after rising by 1.3% MoM last month. Investment Lending for Homes for the same period decreased by 1.9% MoM after a slight increase of 0.05% (revised from +3.6%) for the previous period.

USD/JPY

USD is again showing moderate growth against JPY during today's Asian session, recovering to previous local highs after a correctional rebound the day before. The growth of optimism regarding the stabilization of the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in the main foci of the epidemic in Europe and the US contributed to the emergence of corrective sentiment for USD, but it is clear that investors are not yet ready to abandon the source of increased liquidity. Wednesday's macroeconomic statistics from Japan turned out to be ambiguous. Machinery Orders in Japan in February increased by 2.3% MoM after growth of 2.9% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected negative dynamics to appear at –2.7% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator fell by 2.4% YoY after decreasing by 0.3% YoY in January. Experts expected a decrease of 2.9% YoY. Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Current Index in March was revised downwards from 27.4 to 14.2 points with a positive forecast of growth to 27.6 points. Eco Watchers Survey Outlook over the same period decreased from 24.6 to 18.8 points with a forecast of 38.1 points. The yen is also under pressure from a state of emergency declared on Tuesday in Tokyo and six other prefectures.

XAU/USD

Gold prices are rising during today's Asian session, recovering from a decline the previous day, which allowed the instrument to retreat from local highs since March 10. The formation of correctional dynamics was caused by the growth of optimistic sentiment in the market against the background of the first signs of stabilization of the situation with the dynamics of the incidence of coronavirus in a number of regions. At the same time, the situation remains difficult, and the potential lifting of quarantine measures in the near future, of course, will not solve the aggravated economic problems.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is growing slightly, continuing to develop the “bullish” momentum formed on Tuesday. Yesterday, EUR declined due to the failure of the Eurogroup negotiations, which lasted more than 15 hours. Initially, the meeting was supposed to agree on a new package of measures to support the European economy of more than 500 billion euros but due to several disagreements, a consensus was not reached. However, the Eurogroup intends to continue its negotiations on Thursday, so investors still hope for a positive outcome. Also, today, traders are focused on the ECB Meeting Minutes release. There will be few key macroeconomic statistics from Europe. The February data on import and export of Germany, as well as the February statistics on the dynamics of industrial production in Italy, deserve the most attention. More important are US Initial Jobless Claims data, which last week rose sharply to 6648K.

GBP/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is trading ambiguously, remaining around the local highs since April 2. GBP is supported by a moderate increase in investor interest in risk against the background of some stabilization of the dynamics of coronavirus spread in Europe and the United States. However, investors are extremely cautious, fearing new outbreaks and evaluating the negative economic consequences that are only now beginning to be seen. On Thursday, traders are focused on a block of statistics on industrial production and the dynamics of the UK GDP in February. Also, the National Institute for Economic and Social Research of the United Kingdom will publish estimates of the country's GDP growth rates for March.

NZD/USD

Today, during the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is growing moderately, trading near the local highs since March 31. NZD is strengthening due to the development of USD correction dynamics, which is slightly weakening due to improved investor sentiment in the market. The statistics of incidence in Europe suggest that the epidemic has reached its peak, and soon, a gradual easing of several restrictive measures may be expected. Some stabilization was outlined in New York, which was hit hardest by the US epidemic. There it is too early to talk about reaching a peak but the general trend is positive. More confident growth in the New Zealand dollar is hindered by the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. So, Electronic Card Retail Sales in March decreased by 3.9% MoM after an increase by 0.5% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected positive dynamics of +0.3% MoM. Also, the indicator fell from +8.6% YoY to -1.8% YoY against the forecast of +5.3% YoY.

USD/JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair is growing moderately, recovering from a pullback on Tuesday. Now, the US currency is trying to consolidate above 109.00 supported by high demand for shelter assets. In turn, the position of the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the emergency regime introduced recently in Tokyo and several prefectures surrounding it in response to the accelerated spread of the epidemic within the country. Macroeconomic statistics published on Thursday from Japan remains in the background and does not significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument. Thus, the volume of foreign investment in Japanese stocks for the week of April 3 increased by 422.7 billion yen after a decrease of 1,422.1 billion yen in the previous period. In turn, investment in foreign bonds for the same period fell sharply by 1,056.4 billion yen after an increase of 2.5 billion yen in the previous period.

XAU/USD

Today, during the Asian session, gold prices are recovering, partially compensating for the decline on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the instrument retreated from its local highs since March 10. The instrument is still supported by an uncertain perspective around the coronavirus epidemic. The market is receiving signals that the epidemic may have reached its peak in Europe but investors are afraid to make hasty conclusions. The situation in the United States remains difficult, although the stabilization of new cases of infection has been outlined in New York. Also, investors are awaiting the outcome of today's OPEC+ meeting, which will be held remotely.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD

EUR is showing uncertain growth against USD during today's Asian session, continuing the development of the "bullish" trend that formed on April 7. EUR is supported by strengthening correctional sentiments for USD, which is keenly reacting to the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the USA. On Thursday, investors drew attention to the release of information on Initial Jobless Claims. For the week ending April 3, the number of applications amounted to 6.606M after 6.867M in the previous period with a forecast of 5.2M. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April fell sharply from 89.1 to 71 points, which also turned out to be worse than market expectations of 75 points. Today, investors expect the publication of March statistics on consumer inflation in the United States. In addition, closer to the end of the American session, the United States will publish a Monthly Budget Statement for March.

GBP/USD

GBP maintains the upward direction of trading paired with USD and updates local highs from March 27 during today's Asian session. GBP is ready to end the week with moderate growth against USD amid fluctuations in USD due to the coronavirus and the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from the US. Investors are seriously concerned about the economic consequences of the raging epidemic for the first economy in the world and are trying to somehow minimize their risks. The macroeconomic statistics from the UK published yesterday was contradictory. UK GDP in February showed a decrease of 0.1% MoM despite the expected growth of 0.1%. At the same time, Manufacturing Production in February unexpectedly accelerated from 0.4% MoM to 0.5% MoM, which was better than forecasts of 0.1% MoM.

AUD/USD

AUD shows ambiguous dynamics of trading against USD and is consolidating near local highs since March 12, updated the day before. Today, exchanges are closed in many countries due to Good Friday, so trading activity remains low. However, given the high level of volatility in the market, it is possible that in the afternoon, with the publication of US data, activity will begin to gradually recover. During the Asian session, traders are focused on the publication of macroeconomic statistics from China. In March, Consumer Price Index slowed down from 5.2% YoY to 4.3% YoY, which turned out to be worse than expert estimates at 4.8% YoY. On a monthly basis, consumer inflation in March fell by 1.2% MoM after rising by 0.8% MoM in February. Analysts had expected negative trend to appear, but counted on only 0.7% MoM decline.

USD/JPY

USD is trading ambiguously against JPY during today's Asian session, maintaining a downtrend amid an attempt of the instrument to correct downwards since April 7. Pressure on USD was exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics, which exposes the depressing prospects for the economy in the near future. This is about prospects for the global economy, but the data from the USA are still at the forefront. Statistics from Japan published today remained without any attention from traders. At the same time, the volume of bank lending in March slightly decreased from 2.1% YoY to 2.0% YoY, which coincided with expert estimates. Producer Price Index for the same period decreased by 0.4% YoY after rising by 0.8% YoY in February. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% YoY. MoM, Producer Price Index in March fell by 0.9%, accelerating from –0.4% in February. The indicator was worse than the forecast of –0.7% MoM.

XAU/USD

Gold prices rose significantly (about 3%) at trading yesterday, approaching the level of 1690.00, which is the highest since March 9. The data on Initial Jobless Claims in the United States again put pressure on USD, which is already subject to correctional sentiment this week. New measures to support the economy, which countries are taking in response to the economic consequences of the coronavirus epidemic, are also increasing gold demand. On Thursday, it became known that the Fed plans to implement an additional program of support for small businesses in the amount of USD 2.3 trillion.