Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: negative dynamics prevail

08/22/2019

Expectations of further easing of the monetary policy of the ECB put pressure on the euro and the pair EUR / USD. Eurodollar strengthened at the beginning of today's European session after the publication of positive macro statistics from the Eurozone.

The preliminary German manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in August was 43.6 (against the forecast of 43.0 and 43.2 in July). A similar index in France was also better than forecast (51.0 against the forecast of 49.5 and 49.7 in July).

The pair EUR / USD reached an intraday maximum near 1.1113, but then fell again, moving to negative territory.

Despite the fact that the data were better than predicted, the German economy in August continues to slow down. "Despite some improvement, production data did not grow enough to avert the threat of another small drop in GDP in the 3rd quarter, especially given the deterioration of leading indicators", IHS Markit said.

In the current situation, short positions are preferred, and the reduction targets are located at support levels of 1.1000, 1.0000.

Below the resistance levels of 1.1300 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014), long-term negative dynamics persist.

Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000

Resistance Levels: 1.1117, 1.1165, 1.1185, 1.1245, 1.1285, 1.1300



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1125. Take-Profit 1.1070, 1.1000, 1.0000

Buy Stop 1.1125. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1165, 1.1185

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: short positions are still preferred

08/23/2019

Statements by Fed Chancellor Angela Merkel that the EU and the UK could come to an agreement on Brexit by October 31 have caused the pound to strengthen and the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2273, which corresponds to a 3-week high.

However, on Friday, the decline in the pound and GBP / USD pair resumed. Investors are still betting on the further weakening of the pound, since the risks of the “hard” Brexit remain.

“We are ready” for the hard Brexit scenario, French President Macron reiterated, while Boris Johnson said that Britain is also intensely preparing to leave the EU without any agreement.

Meanwhile, investors expect the beginning (at 14:00 GMT) of the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. Market participants want to understand the Fed's future plans for monetary policy.

Several Fed leaders, as follows from the minutes of the July 30-31 meeting, believe that rates should be left unchanged because "the real economy remains in good shape".

Despite conflicting signals from the Fed management, many market participants still expect one or two more Fed rate cuts this year, and the first reduction is already at the Fed meeting on September 17-18.

The long-term negative dynamics of GBP / USD prevails. In case of breakdown of the short-term support level 1.2150 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart) GBP / USD will go towards the support level 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the GBP / USD pair decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level 1.7200).

Short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2265, 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730



Trading Scenarios

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.2280. Take-Profit 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2280. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: short positions are still preferred

08/23/2019

Statements by Fed Chancellor Angela Merkel that the EU and the UK could come to an agreement on Brexit by October 31 have caused the pound to strengthen and the GBP / USD pair to rise to 1.2273, which corresponds to a 3-week high.

However, on Friday, the decline in the pound and GBP / USD pair resumed. Investors are still betting on the further weakening of the pound, since the risks of the “hard” Brexit remain.

“We are ready” for the hard Brexit scenario, French President Macron reiterated, while Boris Johnson said that Britain is also intensely preparing to leave the EU without any agreement.

Meanwhile, investors expect the beginning (at 14:00 GMT) of the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell at the symposium in Jackson Hole. Market participants want to understand the Fed's future plans for monetary policy.

Several Fed leaders, as follows from the minutes of the July 30-31 meeting, believe that rates should be left unchanged because "the real economy remains in good shape".

Despite conflicting signals from the Fed management, many market participants still expect one or two more Fed rate cuts this year, and the first reduction is already at the Fed meeting on September 17-18.

The long-term negative dynamics of GBP / USD prevails. In case of breakdown of the short-term support level 1.2150 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) GBP / USD will go towards the support level 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to the GBP / USD pair decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level 1.7200).

Short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2265, 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730



Trading Scenarios

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.2280. Take-Profit 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2280. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: a new strong drop in indices

08/26/2019

Last month, the DJIA updated its absolute and annual maximum near the 27400.0 mark on expectations of a softer Fed monetary policy. Earlier, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed and called for lowering the interest rate by 1% at once, saying that this will accelerate growth in the stock market and support American producers.

The Fed lowered the rate by 0.25% at the end of July, however, stock markets reacted with restraint to this news, as many investors expected a rate cut by 0.50%.

However, stock indices, including DJIA, plummeted after Trump tweeted about the introduction of new 10% duties on Chinese goods from September 1.

August turned out to be extremely volatile. Fears of a slowdown in the global economy and further escalation of international trade conflicts do not leave investors.

Last Friday, global stock indices collapsed after China announced the introduction of duties on US goods worth $ 75 billion, and Donald Trump announced a response to this step of China.

On Monday, markets recovered some of the losses previously sustained after China Vice Premier Liu He said he wanted to resolve trade issues with the United States.

Market participants continue to follow any comments by the US and Chinese authorities regarding trade negotiations.

The deterioration of prospects in this direction may again bring down stock indices. Conversely, a warming or easing in trade disputes between the US and China will support stock indices.

The return of the DJIA to the zone above the resistance level of 26330.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart and local maximums) will indicate a recovery in the bull trend and the resumption of purchases.

Nevertheless, the OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are still on the side of the sellers. Shopping is still premature.

Support Levels: 25270.0, 24600.0

Resistance Levels: 26030.0, 26100.0, 26330.0, 26700.0, 27000.0, 27400.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 26500.0. Stop-Loss 25800.0. Take-Profit 27000.0, 27400.0, 27500.0

Sell Stop 25600.0. Stop-Loss 26100.0. Take-Profit 25300.0, 24600.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Current Dynamics

08/27/2019

Last Thursday, the pound strengthened sharply, while the GBP / USD pair reached an intraday and 3-week high near 1.2273. The pound was strengthened by statements by Fed Chancellor Angela Merkel that the EU and Britain could come to an agreement on Brexit by October 31. Earlier media reported that Merkel invited Britain to find a solution to the Irish problem within 30 days.

Optimism regarding the prospect of an agreement on Brexit after negotiations between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the heads of Germany and France caused the pound to rise late last week.

However, economists have warned that the growth of the pound "has no fundamental justification".

At the Jackson Hole summit, Bank of England head Mark Carney said the UK’s prospects "depend on the timing and nature of Brexit".

The risks of the “hard” Brexit are high. On October 31, Great Britain will withdraw from the EU with or without an agreement.

This creates the prerequisites for the resumption of the weakening of the pound and the fall of the pair GBP / USD.

There are no important macro data today. The focus of the traders will be the speeches of two representatives of central banks. From the vice president of the European Central Bank, Luis de Gindos, investors are waiting for signals to approve stimulus measures at the September meeting. Earlier in August, ECB board member Olli Rehn said markets could count on a “very serious set of measures”.

The second speaker (at 12:00 GMT), Bank of England representative Sylvanas Tenreiro, can talk about how interest rate policy will depend on the course of negotiations on Brexit.

At the beginning of the European session on Tuesday, the GBP / USD pair is trading at an important resistance level of 1.2265 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

A breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.2292 may trigger further growth of GBP / USD with the target at the resistance level of 1.2340 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

In any case, an increase above the resistance levels of 1.2480, 1.2530 is unlikely.

A signal for the resumption of sales may be a breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.2185 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The immediate goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of a correction to the GBP / USD pair decline in a wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

Long-term negative dynamics prevail. Short positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 1.2210, 1.2185, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2265, 1.2292, 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2730



Trading Scenarios

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.2310. Take-Profit 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2310. Stop-Loss 1.2190. Take-Profit 1.2340, 1.2480, 1.2530

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: demand for precious metals remains

08/28/2019

Precious metals continue to grow in price. Gold futures closed on Tuesday at their highest level since 2013, and silver futures reached a maximum of closure in more than 3 years. Rising prices for these precious metals is promoted by both a weakening dollar due to expectations of further easing of the Fed's monetary policy and a decrease in the US stock market due to continuing concerns about a slowdown in the global economy and the negative effects of the trade conflict between the US and China.

Back on Friday, when China announced the introduction of import duties on goods from the United States in the amount of 5% or 10% worth about 75 billion dollars, US President Donald Trump announced his intention to increase all existing and planned duties by 5%. This means that Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion will now be taxed at 30%, and new duties on goods worth $ 130 billion will be 15%, not 10%.

On Monday, Trump spoke about the prospects for US-Chinese trade relations in a conciliatory tone, and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He expressed a desire to resolve trade disputes with the United States.

Nevertheless, the conclusion of a trade agreement between the two countries is very far away. It is possible that Beijing will take a "wait and see" attitude before the election of the new US president in 2020.

December gold futures rose Tuesday at COMEX by $ 14.60, or 1%, to $ 1551.80 an ounce. This is the highest closing level for the most actively trading futures since April 2013.

On Wednesday, gold is trading in a range near recent highs. At the beginning of the European trading session on Wednesday, a troy ounce of gold costs $1542.50.

In the current situation, the demand for protective assets, including gold, will continue. With any correctional decline of the XAU / USD pair, should enter long positions. The most suitable places for this are the support levels of 1495.00 (the bottom line of the ascending channel on the daily chart and local lows), 1485.00 (Fibonacci level 50% of the correction to the wave of decline since September 2011 and the level of 1920.00), 1474.00 (line of the 200-period moving average on 4-hour chart).

For more aggressive purchases, current levels are suitable, as well as a support level of 1517.00 (EMA200 on a 1-hour chart).

The fundamental background creates the prerequisites for maintaining the demand for gold and the further growth of XAU / USD. With the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and other major global central banks, as well as amid geopolitical and trade tensions, demand for gold will grow.

So far, a strong positive momentum prevails. Above the support levels of 1474.00, 1485.00, long positions are preferred.

Only a breakdown of key support levels of 1354.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1290.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will resume the bearish trend, which began in 2012 near the mark of 1795.00.

Support Levels: 1517.00, 1495.00, 1485.00, 1474.00, 1452.00, 1440.00, 1413.00, 1380.00, 1354.00, 1290.00

Resistance Levels: 1555.00, 1585.00



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1515.00. Stop-Loss 1556.00. Take-Profit 1495.00, 1485.00, 1474.00, 1452.00

Buy Stop 1556.00. Stop-Loss 1515.00. Take-Profit 1585.00, 1600.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: Current Dynamics

08/29/2019

On Thursday, the EUR / USD pair is trading in the range near the local support level and the mark of 1.1070. The euro remains under pressure in anticipation of a significant easing of monetary policy at the ECB meeting on September 12. Olli Rehn, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, said in the middle of the month that the European Central Bank will announce a substantial stimulus package in September that will exceed investors' expectations.

OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts recommend short positions, confirming the prevalence of downward dynamics.

The immediate goals in the event of a further decrease in EUR / USD will be the support levels of 1.1030 (local minimum), 1.1000.

In an alternative scenario, a breakdown of the short-term resistance level of 1.1110 (EMA200 on a 1-hour chart) may become a signal to start an upward correction. The target is located at resistance levels 1.1150 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the upper line of the descending channel on the daily chart), 1.1165 (local maximums and EMA50 on the daily chart).

However, this is an unlikely scenario. In the current situation, short positions are preferred.

At 12:00 (GMT) inflation indicators in Germany will be published. Recent data indicate weak inflationary pressures in Germany.

Forecast for August (preliminary estimate): + 1.2%. The growth of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) is a positive factor for the euro. If the data for August turn out to be worse than the forecast or the previous value (+ 1.1%), then the euro will be under additional negative pressure.

Support Levels: 1.1070, 1.1030, 1.1000

Resistance Levels: 1.1100, 1.1117, 1.1150, 1.1165, 1.1200, 1.1245, 1.1285



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 1.1120. Take-Profit 1.1030, 1.1000

Buy Stop 1.1120. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.1150, 1.1165, 1.1200, 1.1245

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Current Dynamics

08/30/2019

At the beginning of the European session on Friday, USD / CAD is trading at a short-term support level of 1.3290 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

In the event of a breakdown of this support level and the development of a downward correction, USD / CAD may decrease to the support level of 1.3250 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA200 on the daily chart).

Nevertheless, above this support level, long-term positive dynamics prevail. After the breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3345 (August highs) USD / CAD will go towards the local resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).

Only a breakdown of the key support level 1.3250 and the local support level 1.3230 can trigger a further decline with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

In general, the US dollar maintains a positive trend, and above the 1.3300 mark, long USD / CAD positions are preferred.

Futures on the DXY dollar index is trading at the beginning of the European session on Friday near 98.50, 11 points above the opening price of today's trading day. The growth for the week at the moment is already + 0.98%, which allows the DXY index to remain in positive territory by the results of the month.

From the news today, we are waiting for the publication (at 12:30 GMT) of a whole block of important macro statistics for Canada (Canadian GDP for June and for the 2nd quarter) and the United States (index of personal spending and personal consumption spending of Americans for July).

In view of the importance of the data published at 12:30 (GMT), one should be prepared for the growth of volatility in the USD / CAD pair during this period of time.

Support Levels: 1.3290, 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3115, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880

Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3265. Stop-Loss 1.3325. Take-Profit 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3115, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880

Buy Stop 1.3325. Stop-Loss 1.3265. Take-Profit 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations

09/02/2019

On Tuesday, the next meeting of the RB of Australia will be devoted to issues of monetary policy. The decision on the interest rate will be published at 04:30 (GMT).

On the eve of this event last Sunday, new duties on the import of Chinese goods into the United States entered into force. Fee of 15% on a number of goods used mainly in everyday life will be approximately 110-115 billion US dollars, according to economists.

The escalation of tension in US-Chinese trade relations overshadows the economic prospects of not only the United States and China, but also other countries, especially their trading partners. This contributes to growing expectations that the world's largest central banks will continue to soften their monetary policy.

At a previous meeting in August, the RBA left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. RBA managing director Philip Lowe lowered the forecast for Australia's GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75% and added that unemployment is expected to drop to about 5% in the next two years. According to the RBA management, for the growth of salaries and acceleration of inflation to the target range, an unemployment rate of 4.5% or lower is required. Now unemployment is above the 5% level and is gradually growing, but not decreasing, and the return of inflation to the middle of the target range of 2% -3% is not visible even on a distant horizon.

"It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required for progress towards lowering unemployment and achieving steady progress towards the target inflation rate," Lowe said after an RBA meeting in August.

Probably, at a meeting on Tuesday, the RBA will not yet begin to change the interest rate, but signal such a decrease towards the end of the year.

If Lowe declares this, then the Australian dollar will again be under pressure, and the pair AUD / USD will continue to decline.

Today is a day off in the USA (Labor Day). US banks and exchanges will be closed. In this regard, trading volumes during the US trading session will be insignificant.

Meanwhile, AUD / USD has been declining since the opening of today. At the beginning of the European session on Monday, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6720. Negative dynamics prevails. The objectives of the decline are the support levels of 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

Support Levels: 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6745, 0.6810, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6960, 0.7000, 0.7015



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6795, 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6840. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6865, 0.6960, 0.7000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations

09/02/2019

On Tuesday, the next meeting of the RB of Australia will be devoted to issues of monetary policy. The decision on the interest rate will be published at 04:30 (GMT).

On the eve of this event last Sunday, new duties on the import of Chinese goods into the United States entered into force. Fee of 15% on a number of goods used mainly in everyday life will be approximately 110-115 billion US dollars, according to economists.

The escalation of tension in US-Chinese trade relations overshadows the economic prospects of not only the United States and China, but also other countries, especially their trading partners. This contributes to growing expectations that the world's largest central banks will continue to soften their monetary policy.

At a previous meeting in August, the RBA left the key interest rate at a record low of 1%, but gave a pessimistic forecast for the economy. RBA managing director Philip Lowe lowered the forecast for Australia's GDP growth in 2019 to 2.5% from 2.75% and added that unemployment is expected to drop to about 5% in the next two years. According to the RBA management, for the growth of salaries and acceleration of inflation to the target range, an unemployment rate of 4.5% or lower is required. Now unemployment is above the 5% level and is gradually growing, but not decreasing, and the return of inflation to the middle of the target range of 2% -3% is not visible even on a distant horizon.

"It is reasonable to expect that a long period of low interest rates will be required for progress towards lowering unemployment and achieving steady progress towards the target inflation rate," Lowe said after an RBA meeting in August.

Probably, at a meeting on Tuesday, the RBA will not yet begin to change the interest rate, but signal such a decrease towards the end of the year.

If Lowe declares this, then the Australian dollar will again be under pressure, and the pair AUD / USD will continue to decline.

Today is a day off in the USA (Labor Day). US banks and exchanges will be closed. In this regard, trading volumes during the US trading session will be insignificant.

Meanwhile, AUD / USD has been declining since the opening of today. At the beginning of the European session on Monday, the pair AUD / USD is trading near the level of 0.6720. Negative dynamics prevails. The objectives of the decline are the support levels of 0.6680, 0.6600. The distant target is located at support levels of 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

Support Levels: 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6745, 0.6810, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6960, 0.7000, 0.7015



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6795, 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6840. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6865, 0.6960, 0.7000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: American dollar is in demand

09/03/2019

Current Dynamics

The US dollar returns its previously lost positions, while commodity currencies are falling in price amid escalation of the trade conflict the USA with China.

On Tuesday, USD / CAD again tested the local resistance level of 1.3345, reached in August. Above the support level of 1.3250, the long-term positive dynamics of USD / CAD prevails. Long positions are preferred.

In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3345 (August highs) USD / CAD will go towards the local resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6%), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).

In connection with the upcoming meeting of the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, you should also pay attention to the publication on Tuesday (at 13:30 GMT) of the PMI index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy of Canada, provided by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). This indicator is an important indicator of the state of the Canadian economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the CAD, below 50 - as negative for the Canadian dollar. Forecast: 51.0 in August (against 51.2 in July). A relative decrease in the value (above 50) will have a short-term negative impact on the Canadian dollar. The data above the forecast will strengthen CAD.

Thus, most likely, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday will not reduce the rate from the current level of 1.75%, but will make it closer to the end of the year. Any hint from the Bank of Canada's management on this issue will put downward pressure on CAD.

In an alternative scenario, the signal for the resumption of short positions will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 1.3303 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The objectives of the decline are the support levels 1.3250, 1.3258 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

The breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decline in the medium-term bearish trend with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

Support Levels: 1.3303, 1.3258, 1.3250, 1.3230, 1.3185, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880

Resistance Levels: 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660



Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.3285. Stop-Loss 1.3355. Take-Profit 1.3258, 1.3250, 1.3230

Buy Stop 1.3355. Stop-Loss 1.3285. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations

09/04/2019

The weakening US dollar continues after the publication on Tuesday of weak PMI indices for the manufacturing sector.

Futures on the DXY dollar index fell again and traded at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday near 98.56, after earlier on Tuesday it reached a new multi-month high near 99.32.

At the beginning of today's European session, the AUD / USD pair is trading near the resistance level of 0.6783 (EMA144 on the 4-hour chart). A positive impulse may push the pair to the resistance levels of 0.6805 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 0.6830. Further growth may be in doubt, and from these levels you can again enter into short positions.

Below the key resistance level of 0.7015 (EMA200 on the daily chart), a long-term negative trend prevails.

Australian GDP data released during the Asian session for the 2nd quarter showed the slowest growth since the global financial crisis. This makes it possible to further soften the RBA monetary policy by the end of the year, which creates a negative fundamental background for AUD.

In case of resumption of decline, the targets will be the support levels of 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6260, 0.6000 (lows of 2008 - 2009).

Today is full of important news. During the US trading session, several Fed representatives are also expected to speak. In this regard, today we should expect an extremely volatile trading day. Also, today, the Bank of Canada makes a decision on the interest rate, which will be published at 14:00 (GMT), which will increase market volatility in this period of time.

Support Levels: 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Resistance Levels: 0.6745, 0.6810, 0.6830, 0.6865, 0.6960, 0.7000, 0.7015



Trading Recommendations

Sell by market. Sell-Limit 0.6805, 0.6825. Stop-Loss 0.6870. Take-Profit 0.6700, 0.6680, 0.6600, 0.6300

Buy Stop 0.6870. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Current dynamics and recommendations

09/11/2019

The reduced risks of the “hard” Brexit positively affected the dynamics of the pound and the GBP / USD pair.

On Tuesday, the pound received additional support after the publication of positive macro statistics, indicating a decrease in unemployment in the UK in May-July to 3.8% from 3.9% in April-June. The average earnings excluding premiums in May-July increased by 3.8%, which is higher than the forecast of 3.7%.

Meanwhile, the threat of "hard" Brexit continues to dominate the pound, not allowing it to more rapidly develop the upward trend.

During his speech yesterday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the “tough” Brexit will slow the economy down and push inflation up.

Parliament blocked the possibility of Britain leaving the EU without a deal on October 31, which had a positive effect on the pound.

However, the pound may again come under pressure when discussions on the possibility of a general election resume after October 31.

Despite the current corrective strengthening of the pound, its long-term negative dynamics prevail.

So far, GBP / USD is trading above the short-term support levels of 1.2270 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2255 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

The breakdown of these support levels will resume the long-term bearish trend of GBP / USD.

In an alternative scenario, a breakthrough of local 1.2360 will trigger an growth to the zone of resistance levels of 1.2480, 1.2530 (June lows), 1.2570 (EMA144 on the daily chart).

Nevertheless, preference should still be given to short positions, especially if GBP / USD drops to a zone below the support level of 1.2255.

Support Levels: 1.2300, 1.2270, 1.2255, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2360, 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2570



Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.2250. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2250. Take-Profit 1.2480, 1.2530, 1.2570

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: on the eve of the ECB meeting

09/12/2019

The focus of traders today is the ECB meeting. The ECB is expected to announce a large-scale easing program, including a reduction in deposit rates by 20 basis points, and bond purchases of € 30 billion per month for nine months.

If the ECB's decisions on monetary policy turn out to be more modest and disappoint market participants, then the euro may further strengthen, including in the EUR / USD pair. Thus, the intrigue about the actions of the ECB at its meeting today remains, and you need to be prepared for high volatility in this period of time. The decision on rates will be published at 11:45 (GMT), and at 12:30 the ECB press conference will begin.

In case of significant mitigation measures by the ECB today, the EUR / USD pair will again go “south” with the immediate target at 1.0960 (the lower border of the downward channel on the weekly chart).

If the ECB does not live up to market expectations and declares a less aggressive stimulus policy, then the EUR / USD pair after a short-term decline may resume corrective growth in the direction of resistance levels 1.1210 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1260 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014).

Growth above these resistance levels is unlikely.

Support Levels: 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900

Resistance Levels: 1.1030, 1.1090, 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260, 1.1285



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.0980. Stop-Loss 1.1060. Take-Profit 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0800

Buy Stop 1.1060. Stop-Loss 1.0980. Take-Profit 1.1090, 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/gcCv5zrk/120919-EU-W.png[/img]

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: positive momentum maintains

09/13/2019

As already known, on Thursday the ECB lowered the base interest rate on deposits to -0.5% and resumed the QE program by 20 billion euros per month. The new quantitative easing program is expected to be “implemented as much as needed”, the ECB said.

European, world and US stock indices positively accepted the ECB decision, continuing to strengthen on Friday.

Expectations of reaching an agreement in a trade dispute between the US and China, easing the monetary policy of the Fed and positive macro statistics coming in from the USA on Thursday also contributed to the resumption of growth in major US stock indexes.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to 27182.00 points, which was the seventh consecutive growth session. The S&P 500 added 0.3% to reach 3009.00 points, while the Nasdaq Composite also rose 0.3% to 8194.0 points. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose on Friday to 1.805% versus 1.733% on Wednesday, which indicates the tendency of investors to buy more risky, but also more profitable stock market assets.

At the beginning of the European session on Friday, futures on the S&P500 index were trading near 3014.0, close to absolute and annual highs at 3028.0.

On the eve of the Fed meeting next week, the S&P500 index maintains a long-term positive trend. It is widely expected that the Fed will lower rates by 0.25%, to 2.0%, the second time this year.

The index is trading above the key support level of 2865.0 (EMA200 and the lower border of the ascending channel on the daily chart, as well as the Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the growth since December 2018 and the level of 2335.0). After the breakdown of the local resistance level of 3028.0 (absolute maximums), the S&P500 growth is likely to continue.

Above the support level of 2940.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the middle of the rising channel on the daily chart), from S&P500 sales should be abstained.

Support Levels: 2990.0, 2972.0, 2965.0, 2940.0, 2900.0, 2865.0, 2765.0

Resistance Levels: 3028.0



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 2990.0. Stop-Loss 3022.0. Goals 2972.0, 2965.0, 2940.0, 2900.0, 2865.0

Buy Stop 3022.0. Stop-Loss 2990.0. Goals 3028.0, 3100.0, 3200.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: negative dynamics prevail

09/16/2019

EUR / USD continues to decline in the long-term bearish trend, trading in downward channels on the daily and weekly charts.

At the beginning of this month, EUR / USD tested the support level near the level of 1.0960, however, subsequently rose to the resistance level of 1.1115 (the upper border of the downward channel and EMA50 on the daily chart).

At the moment, EUR / USD is falling, remaining under pressure from the ECB's decision on monetary policy last Thursday. As you know, the ECB resumed the program of quantitative easing and lowered the key interest rate on deposits by 0.1%, to -0.5%.

Now financial market participants are turning their attention to the Fed meeting next week. As expected, the Fed will reduce the rate by 0.25% to 2.00%, which will not have a significant impact on the dynamics of the dollar. The dollar may weaken sharply if the Fed leaders announce plans to further mitigate monetary policy by the end of the year.

The Fed meeting will be held September 17 - 18. Probably, up to this point, the EUR / USD pair will also remain under pressure. In the context of trade wars, the dollar remains a protective asset.

Currently, EUR / USD is trading below the key resistance levels of 1.1210 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.1260 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1.1285 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of the correction to the fall from the level of 1.3900, which began in May 2014) .

Short positions are recommended below these resistance levels.

The breakdown of the short-term support level of 1.1045 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) will be a signal for resuming sales of EUR / USD with targets near the levels of 1.0900, 1.0850.

Support Levels: 1.1045, 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850

Resistance Levels: 1.1087, 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260, 1.1285



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1040. Stop-Loss 1.1090. Take-Profit 1.1000, 1.0960, 1.0940, 1.0900, 1.0850

Buy Stop 1.1090. Stop-Loss 1.1040. Take-Profit 1.1115, 1.1210, 1.1260

[img]https://i.postimg.cc/g0FyLwNf/160919-EU-D.png[/img]

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: NZD remains under pressure

09/17/2019

In August, the RBNZ cut the rate by 50 bp to 1.00%, explaining this decision by the aggravation of the trade war between the US and China and the loss of momentum in the New Zealand economy.

The New Zealand currency remains vulnerable amid the risks of a slowdown in the global economy and a trade conflict between China and the United States, New Zealand's two largest trading partners.

According to Westpac McDermott Miller on Monday evening (21:00 GMT), consumer confidence in New Zealand has fallen to its lowest level since 2012. The consumer confidence index in the 3rd quarter amounted to 103.1, which is 0.4 lower than the previous value and less than the forecast of 104.0.

Recent data show that New Zealand’s annual GDP growth may be below 2%, although economists believe that annual GDP growth should be 3% to sustainably achieve the inflation target.

Data on the country's GDP for the 2nd quarter will be published on Wednesday at 22:45 (GMT). According to the forecast, GDP growth in the 2nd quarter was + 0.4% (+ 2.0% in annual terms).

In general, the long-term bearish trend of the NZD / USD pair continues, which resumed in April 2018. Despite the expected easing of the Fed's monetary policy, the fall of NZD / USD is likely to continue.

Currently, NZD / USD is trading near 0.6325, below the short-term resistance level of 0.6385 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

Below the resistance levels 0.6443, 0.6425 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart and the lows of October 2018), only short positions should be considered.

Below the resistance level of 0.6620 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term bearish trend NZD / USD prevails.

Support Levels: 0.6300, 0.6260

Resistance Levels: 0.6385, 0.6425, 0.6443, 0.6490, 0.6575, 0.6620



Trading Scenarios

Sell by market. Stop-Loss 0.6390. Take-Profit 0.6300, 0.6260, 0.6200

Buy Stop 0.6390. Stop-Loss 0.6320. Take-Profit 0.6425, 0.6443, 0.6490

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: Fed meeting and rates

09/18/2019

Current Dynamics

The US dollar returns its previously lost positions, while commodity currencies are falling in price amid an escalation of the US-China trade conflict.

On Tuesday, USD / CAD again tested the local resistance level of 1.3300. Above the support level of 1.3245 (EMA200 on the daily chart), the long-term positive dynamics of USD / CAD prevails and long positions are preferred.

In the event of a breakdown of the local resistance level of 1.3345 (August highs) USD / CAD will go towards the local resistance levels 1.3435, 1.3452 (Fibonacci level 23.6% of downward correction to the pair's growth in the global uptrend since September 2012 and the level of 0.9700), 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560 (highs of the year).

In an alternative scenario, the signal for the resumption of short positions will be a breakdown of the short-term support level 1.3233 (ЕМА200 on the 1-hour chart).

The objectives of the decline are local support levels 1.3182, 1.3138.

A breakdown of these levels will trigger a further decline with targets at support levels 1.3020, 1.2880 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

Today, the focus of traders is the Fed meeting. The acceleration of inflation in the United States may prompt the Fed to report a limited space for lower interest rates in the future.

According to CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of another rate cut this year (after lowering it on Wednesday) at 58% against 93% a month ago.

If the leaders of the central bank nevertheless signal the next rate cut this year, the US stock market will receive a powerful incentive for further growth, and the dollar may drop sharply.

Otherwise (if the Fed reduces the rate by 0.25%, but does not give a signal about a further reduction in the rate), the dollar, after a short-term reduction, may go on to increase.

The decision on the rate will be published today at 18:00, and the Fed press conference will begin at 18:30 (GMT).

Support Levels: 1.3258, 1.3245, 1.3238, 1.3233, 1.3182, 1.3138, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880

Resistance Levels: 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560, 1.3600, 1.3660



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3230. Stop-Loss 1.3310. Take-Profit 1.3182, 1.3138, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2880

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3230. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3435, 1.3452, 1.3465, 1.3520, 1.3560

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: Current dynamics

09/19/2019

On the eve of the meeting of the Bank of England, the pound and GBP / USD are trading higher getting support from the reduced risks of the “hard” Brexit and positive macro statistics.

Earlier this month, the pound also received support after the publication of positive macro statistics, indicating a decrease in unemployment in the UK in May-July to 3.8% from 3.9% in April-June. The average earnings excluding bonuses in May-July increased by 3.8%, which is higher than the forecast of 3.7%, although lower than the indicator of April-June 3.9%.

The growth of British income is a positive factor for the pound, since it speaks in favor of an increase in spending on personal consumption and, accordingly, is an inflationary indicator.

On Tuesday, the GBP / USD pair reached a local and 2-month high near 1.2530 (June lows), through which the upper border of the descending channel on the daily chart passes.

A breakthrough of this resistance level will open the way for the growth of GBP / USD in the zone of resistance levels 1.2565 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.2660 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

In case of breakdown of the support levels 1.2400 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 1.2310 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), the bearish GBP / USD trend will resume.

The current goal of the decline is the support level of 1.2000 (2017 lows and the Fibonacci level 0% of the correction to decline of the GBP / USD pair in the wave that began in July 2014 near the level of 1.7200).

The intrigue regarding the decisions of the Bank of England and its further actions remains. You must be prepared for a sharp increase in volatility in pound trading after 11:00 (GMT), when the Bank of England decision on rates will be published, as well as the minutes from this meeting of the bank.

Support Levels: 1.2400, 1.2310, 1.2270, 1.2255, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Resistance Levels: 1.2530, 1.2565, 1.2660



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2390. Stop-Loss 1.2540. Take-Profit 1.2310, 1.2270, 1.2255, 1.2200, 1.2175, 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.2540. Stop-Loss 1.2390. Take-Profit 1.2565, 1.2660

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: positive dynamics prevail

09/20/2019

After media reports that last Saturday oil refineries in Saudi Arabia were attacked by terrorist's drones, oil prices rose sharply. WTI oil futures on Nymex hit $ 63.34 a barrel against Friday's close of $ 60.61.

The price of WTI crude oil rose sharply, approaching a strong resistance level of 63.50 (Fibonacci 61.8% of the upward correction to the fall from the highs of the last few years near 76.80 to the support level near 42.15, as well as the upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart )

Saudi officials said the kingdom intends to start importing crude oil and petroleum products to restore production.

Positive momentum prevails. OPEC’s policy of limiting production, increasing tensions in the Middle East, reducing the likelihood of improved US-Iran relations, and the vulnerability of Saudi oil infrastructure are leading to higher prices.

Today, oil market participants will follow the publication (at 17:00 GMT) of the weekly report of the American oilfield services company Baker Hughes on the number of active drilling rigs in the United States. If the report again indicates a decrease in the number of such installations, then this may give a short-term positive impetus to prices.

A breakdown of the resistance level of 59.50 (Fibonacci level of 50%) will strengthen the bullish trend of WTI and direct the price to the resistance level of 60.90 (July highs) and further towards the upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart and marks 63.50, 64.40.

In an alternative scenario, the first signal to resume sales will be a breakdown of the support level of 58.27. The long-term reduction target is located at the support level of 42.15 (Fibonacci level of 0% and December 2018 lows).

So far, and above the support level of 57.80, long positions are preferred.

Support Levels: 58.27, 57.80, 57.30, 56.80, 55.40, 55.00, 53.00, 50.30, 49.00, 42.15

Resistance Levels: 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50



Trading Recommendations

Sell Stop 57.70. Stop-Loss 58.40. Take-Profit 57.30, 56.80, 55.40, 55.00, 53.00, 50.30

Buy Stop 59.10. Stop-Loss 58.10. Take-Profit 59.50, 60.90, 63.50, 64.40, 66.50

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com