Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: low interest rates are desirable

07/05/2018


Current dynamics

Last week, the central bank of Australia, as expected, left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. According to the RBA Governor Philip Lowey, at present there are no arguments in favor of changing the RBA monetary policy.

On Tuesday, Philip Lowy said that "the low level of interest rates continues to support the Australian economy".

At the level of 1.5%, the RBA rate is already since the middle of 2016, and economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.

The RBA raised the forecast for core inflation by mid-2018 from 1.75% to 2.0%, to the lower limit of the RBA's target range of 2% -3%. At the same time, the RBA does not expect further growth in core inflation until June 2020.

On Friday, in the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia revised upward its forecast for the unemployment rate. Now, given the negative dynamics of the Australian labor market from the beginning of 2018, the long-awaited increase in the RBA rate in the first half of 2019 may be in jeopardy.

Nevertheless, the situation in the Australian labor market remains a key factor in the prospects for raising the key interest rate of the country's central bank.

"The board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term", the statement adds.

Economists also warn that due to the weakness of the housing market and the continuing weakening of housing prices in major cities, the RBA will not change rates until 2020.

If pressure on housing prices increases, it will undermine consumer confidence and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. And this, in turn, suggests a possibility of a decrease, rather than an increase in interest rates.

On Tuesday, investors will be attracted by the publication (09:30 GMT) of the Australian government's annual budget plan. The impact of this document on the market and on the quotations of the Australian dollar is high, because it can have a significant impact on the economy.

At the same time, the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed in combination with strong economic data of the US supports the US dollar. Its growth, most likely, will continue in the short term.

The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD/USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7430, 0.7330, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7550, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7730, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000



Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7565. Take-Profit 0.7430, 0.7330, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7565. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7730, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: US stock indexes are falling before the speech of Donald Trump

08/05/2018



Current dynamics

Major US stock indexes are down on the eve of the speech of US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump wrote on Twitter that he would announce a decision on the Iranian nuclear agreement on Tuesday. The deadline for the adoption of this decision by the US expires on May 12.

Traders took a wait-and-see position before the decision of US President Donald Trump on the Iranian nuclear deal. If Trump still decides to withdraw from the agreement and the US restores economic sanctions against Iran, it will lead to a reduction in the supply of oil from Iran, reduce the world supply of oil and cause an increase in oil prices.

In this case, the Fed may begin to respond more acutely to consumer price growth, which is partly related to the expected increase in oil prices, and to raise interest rates faster than previously expected. This is a negative factor for stock indices, although the dollar will benefit from this.

The strengthening of inflationary pressures in the US can stimulate the Fed to further raise interest rates this year. According to the futures quotations for interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of four rate increases of 50% (against 32% a month earlier). In this case, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 100%. Strong recent economic data from the US has strengthened investors' expectations about 4 Fed interest rate rises in 2018, despite the fact that the Fed is still signaling about 2 more rate hikes. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is 2.954%, which indicates the expected increase in inflation, and therefore, at a higher rate of tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed.

It is also necessary to take into account the impressive deficit of the US foreign trade balance and the federal budget deficit, which can be further aggravated against the backdrop of the new tax and economic policy of the White House and expectations of a significant increase in budget expenditures.

In recent weeks, the main US stock indices are hesitating in anticipation of the Fed's actions and trade negotiations between the US and China, which ended on Friday with nothing.

Negative dynamics of US stock indexes persists in the medium term, although in the long run, indices are still in a long-term bull trend.

Recall that the beginning of the performance of Donald Trump is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support levels: 2650.0, 2630.0, 2615.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0

Resistance levels: 2672.0, 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2640.0. Stop-Loss 2685.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2615.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0

Buy Stop 2685.0. Stop-Loss 2640.0. Objectives 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the price tends to the marks around 80.00

10/05/2018

Current dynamics

According to official data released by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, commercial oil reserves in this country fell by 2.197 million barrels last week (the forecast assumed a drop in stocks of only 0.719 million barrels). Gasoline inventories declined by 2.2 million barrels (forecasted decline is of only 0.4 million barrels), diesel fuel inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels against the expected drop of 1.4 million barrels.

This is a positive factor for oil prices. However, prices continue to grow, playing out the recent US decision to withdraw from the "nuclear deal" with Iran, as well as the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced the renunciation of the agreement on Iran's nuclear program, which means the resumption of sanctions against this country.

It is expected that the resumption of sanctions will lead to a reduction in Iran's oil production, a key member of OPEC, and a reduction in the world supply of oil.

Analysts of the oil market believe that the resumption of sanctions could lead to the withdrawal of Iranian oil from the world market and to a reduction in the world supply of oil by 700,000 barrels a day. Previously, the sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 led to the withdrawal of about 1 million barrels of Iranian oil from the market.

At the moment, pressure on oil quotations towards further price increases is also exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East, which can lead to interruptions in the supply of oil from Asia.

Israeli forces struck at Iranian facilities in Syria after rockets were fired from Iranian military bases to the positions of the Israeli army in the Golan Heights. In addition, Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels on Wednesday launched rockets for Saudi Arabia.

On Thursday, July futures for Brent crude went up by 0.75% to 77.79 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude rose during the Asian session to 77.80, a new high since November 2014.

It is likely that oil prices will continue to rise, given geopolitical risks and possible interruptions in supplies from Iraq and Venezuela, as well as OPEC's intent to adhere to a plan to further limit oil production.

According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States increased oil production by 1.34 million barrels per day in comparison with last March, ranking second in the world for oil production after Russia, outstripping Saudi Arabia.

But even despite the growth in oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand in the current situation.

On Friday (at 17:00 GMT) a weekly report will be published from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US. Their number almost weekly grows and at the moment is 834 units. The next growth of this indicator will be another negative factor for the oil market and positive - for oil prices. Probably, the price for Brent crude oil will try to break into the zone around $ 80 per barrel.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 77.00, 76.60, 76.00, 74.90, 72.25, 70.40, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70, 64.30, 63.20

Resistance levels: 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 75.80. Stop-Loss 77.20. Take-Profit 75.00, 74.00, 72.25, 70.40, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70

Buy Stop 77.80. Stop-Loss 75.80. Take-Profit 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00

Buy Limit 72.25. Stop Loss 70.00. Take-Profit 73.00, 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: investors fix profit after growth of US dollar

11/05/2018



Current dynamics

After the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% in April, the Canadian dollar declined. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.

"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, there is the question of likely investors switching to US assets", the central bank said.

Nevertheless, in recent days, the Canadian dollar has been receiving support from rising oil prices. Strengthening of the Canadian dollar and the decline in the USD / CAD will continue if the bull market continues to be present in the oil market.

So far, everything is in favor of further price increases after Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the agreement on Iran's nuclear program. The unilateral exit of the US from the deal implies the resumption of sanctions against Iran and limiting of the Iranian oil on the world market, which is approximately 1 million barrels a day.

At 12:30 (GMT), the publication of data from the Canadian labor market is planned. It is expected that unemployment in Canada in April remained at 5.8%, and the number of employed increased by 17,400 people. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen, and the USD / CAD will decrease.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is declining from the opening of today's trading day. Investors continued to analyze yesterday's weak data on consumer inflation in the US. The growth in consumer price indices was less significant than economists had expected.

Data pointed to a possible slowdown in inflation, and this is a negative sign for the Fed in the matter of tightening monetary policy and the prospects for strengthening the US dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2765, 1.2805, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170

Buy Stop 1.2780. Stop-Loss 1.2720. Take-Profit 1.2805, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: investors are expecting for data from the UK labor market

14/05/2018



Current dynamics

As you know, last week the Bank of England retained the key interest rate at 0.50% without risking the weak recovery of the British economy, and also with the continuing of uncertainties regarding Brexit. The program for the purchase of stock assets by the Bank of England also remained unchanged at the level of 435 billion pounds sterling a year.

The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%.

In early May, disappointing macro data were published, indicating a weak growth in the UK economy in April. The PMI index for the manufacturing sector turned out to be the lowest for 17 months (53.9 against 54.8 under forecasts and 54.9 in March). Gross domestic product in the 1st quarter increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, or by 1.2% year-on-year (the forecast was + 0.3% and + 1.4%, respectively). Thus, GDP growth has slowed significantly; The UK economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew at a slower pace in more than five years.

Slowing down the rate of inflation also caused the Bank of England leaders to refrain from raising the interest rate. So, the consumer price index pointed out that the annual inflation in the UK in March slowed from 2.7% to 2.5%.

On Tuesday, the focus of traders will be data from the British labor market, including data on employment and wages, which will be published at 08:30 (GMT). If the data here also prove to be weak, then the prospect of an increase in the rate in August will be postponed for an even later period. Although, some economists expect that the Bank of England can still go on raising rates in August or November.

The Bank of England's propensity for a softer monetary policy amid the Federal Reserve's intention to gradually raise the interest rate makes the pound vulnerable to the dollar and leads to a further decline in the GBP / USD.

As stated on Monday by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and FOMC member Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue tightening monetary policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability". In her opinion, "fiscal policy turns from limiting to stimulating, the growth rate of the economy exceeds trend, and investments are increasing, so the neutral interest rate is also likely to grow".

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3535, 1.3465, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210

Resistance levels: 1.3595, 1.3610, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3625. Stop-Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3710, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400

Sell Stop 1.3530. Stop-Loss 1.3625. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3465, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CHF: the dynamics of the pair is determined, basically, by the strengthening of the dollar

15/05/2018

Current dynamics

As reported by the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics this morning, the import price and producer prices index rose by 0.4% in April (+ 2.7% in annual terms), mainly due to higher oil and equipment prices. The forecast was +0.3% and + 3.0%, respectively.

This has not yet led to an increase in consumer prices; annual consumer inflation in Switzerland is 0.8%. Nevertheless, the current weakening of the Swiss franc and the increase in producer prices can increase inflationary pressures and provoke the acceleration of consumer inflation in the coming months.

This, on the one hand, can contribute to changing the NBS rhetoric about the current monetary policy. On the other hand, the NBS already almost traditionally considers the franc overbought and conducts an extra-soft monetary policy aimed at reducing the relative value of the franc.

As you know, in mid-March, the Swiss National Bank left its negative interest rates unchanged. The deposit rate remained at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate also remained unchanged, between -1.25% and -0.25%. The NBS traditionally stated that the franc rate is still too high, which indicates that the NBS still intends to keep rates in the negative territory.

"The bank still considers it necessary to have a negative interest rate and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it", the NBS said.

At the moment, the USD / CHF reached the levels of October-November last year, near the mark 1.0030, from which the weakening of the pair began. Beginning in February, when the USD / CHF reached its 3-year lows near the 0.9200 mark, then the pair almost weekly grew.

During this period, the dynamics of the USD / CHF was determined, basically, by a large-scale strengthening of the dollar.

A cheap franc is beneficial to Swiss exporters. It will be interesting now to listen to the opinion of the head of the NBS, Thomas Jordan, about the current weakening of the franc. Will his performance strengthen the franc and reduce the USD / CHF from current levels, or the NBS will be tolerant of further weakening of the franc and the growth of the pair USD / CHF to the resistance level of 1.0300. From this level twice in the last 3 years (in November 2015 and December 2016) another wave of USD / CHF decline began.

Speech by Thomas Jordan is scheduled for Wednesday (16:00 GMT).

So far, the difference in the direction of monetary policy in the US and Switzerland is the most important argument in favor of the growth of the pair USD / CHF.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.9965, 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610

Resistance levels: 1.0030, 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.0040. Stop-Loss 0.9960. Take-Profit 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300

Sell Stop 0.9960. Stop-Loss 1.0040. Take-Profit 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

We congratulate you on the Sacred Holiday - the beginning of Ramadan!​

Tifia Markets Limited congratulates all Muslims on the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan! May Ramadan bring you force and patience and free your soul, body, and life from bad things. May your good deeds, mercy and sympathy reward you with peace, happiness, love, and well-being. May all nations live in peace and harmony!


We know that the Holy month of Ramadan lays special emphasis on charity. Respecting this tradition, Tifia Markets Limited invites its clients to participate in special promotions dedicated to Ramadan:


Ramadan Charity while trading Program - https://tifia.com/ms/contests/ramadan-charity-2018

Ramadan Giveaway – https://tifia.com/ms/contests/ramadan-giveaway


Tifia Markets Limited wishes you well not only during the holy month, but in the whole course of your life.

May joy, love, and understanding reign in your homes!

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the positive dynamics will be preserved, despite the current correction

16/05/2018

Current dynamics

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in crude oil inventories in the US for the week of +4.854 million barrels. Nevertheless, this information almost did not affect the quotations of oil, futures for which increased by 35 cents, to 71.31 dollars per barrel following the results of trades on Nymex.

The spot price for Brent crude at the end of the trading day on Tuesday was near the mark of 77.90, after rising to new annual highs near the 79.25 dollars per barrel in the middle of the trading day.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday, oil reserves in advanced economies fell to a three-year low.

In its monthly report, which closely follows the markets, the IEA reported a reduction in oil reserves in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in March compared to the previous month by 26.8 million barrels, to 62.819 billion barrels. This level is 1 million barrels below the 5-year average, which is used by participants to assess the process of market rebalancing. The efforts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to level the world's excess supply, which has put pressure on the oil market since the end of 2014, is bearing fruit.

Since the entry into force of the OPEC agreement, oil reserves in the OECD countries have fallen by 233 million barrels. As you know, OPEC and 10 oil-producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia, from the beginning of last year reduce the total oil production by about 1.8 million barrels a day.

The market is also supported by geopolitical risks. Iran is the third largest OPEC oil producer, and in the past sanctions limited Iranian oil exports by about 1 million barrels a day. If the US now restores sanctions against the Islamic Republic (currently Iran exports about 2.4 million barrels a day), it will reduce OPEC's total production and further reduce the global supply.

At the moment, pressure on oil quotations towards further price increases is also exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East, which can lead to interruptions in the supply of oil from Asia.

Nevertheless, oil prices have so far suspended growth and declined from the highs for three and a half years on signs that the oil rally is beginning to weaken the growth in demand.

In the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the forecast for growth in oil demand in 2018 was reduced to 1.4 million barrels per day against the previous estimate of 1.5 million barrels per day, including because of a significant price increase.

In the current year, Brent oil prices have increased by about 17%, and since 2016 prices have increased by approximately 2.6 times.

On Wednesday (at 14:30 GMT), the Ministry of Energy will provide official data on oil and petroleum products in the US. The stock is expected to decline by -0.763 million barrels, which will positively affect oil prices while confirming the forecast.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40, 72.00, 70.40, 70.00, 66.90, 64.80, 63.30, 58.00

Resistance levels: 78.50, 79.30, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 76.80. Stop-Loss 78.60. Take-Profit 76.00, 75.60, 75.00, 74.40, 73.40

Or Buy Limit 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40. Stop-Loss 72.80. Take-Profit 78.00, 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00

Buy Stop 78.60. Stop-Loss 76.80. Take-Profit 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: downward dynamics prevails

17/05/2018



Current dynamics

As reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, the unemployment rate in April was 5.6% after 5.5% in March (the forecast was 5.5%). Nevertheless, other articles of the report were more positive, and the Australian currency strengthened. Thus, the number of jobs increased by 22,600 against the expected 20,000, the number of full-time jobs increased in April by 32,700, and the number of part-time jobs dropped by 10,000. Meanwhile, the proportion of economically active population in Australia in April was 65.6% after 65.5% in March and compared with the forecast of 65.5%.

Published on Wednesday, data showed that the growth rate of wages in Australia remained near the record low in the first three months of this year. Wage growth in Australia in the first quarter of 2018 was + 2.1% (in annual terms). The Reserve Bank of Australia pays much attention to this indicator when deciding on the interest rate. Low wage growth rates may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to not change interest rates for a longer period of time.

Since mid-2016, the RBA's key rate is at a record low of 1.5%.

Deputy Governor of the RBA Debell said that interest rates will not be raised until consumers' incomes rise. Economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.

"The Board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term", - said in one of the latest statements of the RBA.

Economists also warn that due to the weakness of the housing market and the continuing weakening of housing prices in major cities, the RBA will not change rates until 2020.

If pressure on housing prices increases, it will undermine consumer confidence and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. And this, in turn, suggests a possibility of a decrease, rather than an increase in interest rates.

In general, the negative dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains. The US dollar receives support from the growing yield of 10-year US government bonds, which reached a new high of 3.122% on Thursday.

The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD pair.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7565, 0.7595, 0.7655, 0.7715, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000



Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7715, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: oil price growth supports CAD

18/05/2018



Current dynamics

Uncertainty over the NAFTA negotiations puts pressure on Canada's investments and exports, said earlier in the week, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Lawrence Schembri.

"Economic capacities are almost fully loaded, inflation is close to the target level of 2%, and yet rates remain below the neutral level, in part because we have to hedge ourselves because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations", added Lawrence Shembry.

As you know, in April the Bank of Canada left the rate at the same level of 1.25%. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.

"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules", said in the central bank.

Nevertheless, in recent days, the Canadian dollar has been receiving support from rising oil prices.

So, Brent oil prices exceeded the $ 80 mark per barrel on Thursday, although they fell to 79.30 by the end of the trading day. The US decision to resume economic sanctions against Iran continued to support the rally in oil prices, which reached new highs since November 2014.

If the bull market continues to be in the oil market, then the probability of strengthening the Canadian dollar will increase.

At 12:30 (GMT), publication of data on retail sales and consumer inflation in Canada is planned. Retail sales are expected to grow by 0.3% in March, after rising by 0.4% in February. The level of retail sales is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence, which reflects the state of the retail sector in the short term. The growth of this indicator is a bullish factor for CAD.

The consumer price index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of prices relative to the retail prices of the corresponding basket of goods and services. The target inflation rate for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1% -3%. The growth of CPI is a positive factor for CAD. Forecast: consumer prices rose in Canada by 0.4% in April (against +0.3% in March). The base CPI rose in April, expected to be +1.4% (in annual terms). Thus, the CPI indicators are still weak, so that the Bank of Canada could return to the issue of raising the interest rate.

If the data are better than forecasts, then against the backdrop of rising oil prices, as well as against the fixation of profit in long positions on the US dollar at the end of the trading week, CAD can significantly strengthen against the USD.

In any case, a surge in volatility in the USD / CAD is expected during the publication of this macro statistics.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2805, 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2790. Stop-Loss 1.2855. Take-Profit 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260

Buy Stop 1.2855. Stop-Loss 1.2790. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: US and China agree on trade armistice

21/05/2018



Current dynamics

Markets positively perceived the information that the US and China agreed on a trade truce. At last weekend's talks, Beijing agreed to increase purchases of goods manufactured in the US to reduce the US trade deficit with China, which is $ 375 billion now.

The Trump administration tried to force China to agree to reduce the trade imbalance by $ 200 billion.

Nevertheless, Beijing has refused to determine the exact amount of purchases in dollar terms, and now everything depends on the talks between the two presidents, Trump and Xi Jinping.

On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said that the administration of US President Donald Trump intends to "put the trade war on a pause" and postpone the introduction of duties on the import of goods from China, until the two sides discuss the details of the agreement to reduce the trade deficit.

The successful season of reporting US companies for the first quarter also contributed to the growth of US stock indices in recent days.

At the same time, long-term estimates of inflation in the US are still restrained, despite improvements in indicators. In this regard, investors are interested in how actively the Fed will react to one-time price increases.

As you know, at the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. In 2017, the rates were also raised 3 times. This temp of tightening of monetary policy is already taken into account in quotes.

According to the futures quotations for interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of four rate increases at 50% (against 32% a month earlier). In this case, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 100%. Strong recent economic data from the US has strengthened investors' expectations about 4 Fed interest rate rises in 2018, despite the fact that the Fed is still signaling about 2 more rate hikes.

Now investors will carefully monitor the release of the minutes of the Fed's May meeting (on Wednesday 18:00 GMT), which may shed light on how quickly rates will be raised in response to increased inflation.

On Friday (13:20 GMT) the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will act. If he signals a high probability of 4 rate increases this year, then US stock indices may fall again. As a rule, raising rates leads to the strengthening of the national currency and to a decrease in the attractiveness of the assets of the stock market.

Meanwhile, the bullish trend of the US stock market remains.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2712.0, 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2741.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2700.0. Stop-Loss 2742.0. Objectives 2688.0, 2660.0, 2630.0, 2625.0

Buy Stop 2742.0. Stop-Loss 2700.0. Objectives 2760.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: negative dynamics prevails

22/05/2018



Current dynamics

As the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, stated today, "the signs of the restoration of momentum can be manifested in the next few months". "If the momentum recovers, then, according to our guidelines, certain actions will follow logically", added Carney. In the meantime, Mark Carney suggests waiting for "recovery of momentum before raising the stakes".

Another representative of the Bank of England Vlige spoke in the same vein, saying that "we can wait for a few more months without special expenses before raising rates".

As you know, earlier in the month the Bank of England retained the key interest rate at 0.50%. In the face of continuing uncertainties regarding Brexit, as well as against the backdrop of the absence of "signs of recovery of momentum", the Bank of England preferred not to change the current conditions of monetary policy. Although the collapse of the British economy after the referendum on Brexit in the summer of 2016 did not happen, the collapse of the pound and the subsequent rapid growth of inflation significantly worsened the level of welfare of the British. The fall in the level of retail sales and domestic demand had a negative impact on the UK economy, focused primarily on the domestic market.

The tightening of the monetary policy of the central bank would have a stimulating effect on the growth of consumer spending, especially with regard to imported goods.

However, the increase in the interest rate makes higher interest rates on loans for commercial banks and for the population, including mortgage loans. A higher exchange rate of the national currency also reduces the competitiveness of export products abroad, which negatively affects the country's exporters. The deficit of the UK trade balance exceeds 3 billion pounds and has a tendency to increase. The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%.

On Wednesday (08:30 GMT) data on consumer inflation in the UK will be published. As expected, the consumer price index (CPI) will indicate that the growth rate of annual inflation in April did not change (2.5% against 2.5% in March).

If the data does indicate an acceleration of inflation, the Bank of England will be forced to tighten monetary policy. Some economists expect that the Bank of England can still go on raising rates in August or November, which will cause the strengthening of the pound.

Meanwhile, representatives of the Federal Reserve regularly give signals about the commitment of the US central bank to a plan to further tighten monetary policy.

So, on Tuesday, a member of the Committee on open market operations, the FRS Patrick Harker said that he will support three more increases in the key rate this year. It is characteristic that even last month Harker was among those who spoke of "two more rises".

According to another member of the FOMC, Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue tightening monetary policy to avoid increasing risks to macroeconomic stability".

Thus, the Bank of England's predilection for a softer monetary policy amid the Federal Reserve's intention to gradually raise the interest rate makes the pound vulnerable to the dollar and leads to a further decline in the GBP / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3460, 1.3390, 1.3300, 1.3210

Resistance levels: 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3720, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3460, 1.3390, 1.3300, 1.3210

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: weakening of inflation pressure in Great Britain

23/05/2018



Current dynamics

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday, consumer prices in the UK in April rose by 2.4% (in annual terms) after growing 2.5% in March. The forecast assumed an increase of + 2.5%. The rate of price growth in April was the weakest since March 2017. On the one hand, this is good for British consumers; on the other hand, a weakening of inflationary pressures postpones a probable increase in the interest rate in the UK to a later date.

At its previous meeting, the bank's management left rates at the same level, as official statistics pointed to the weakness of economic growth in the first quarter of 2018. The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%. At the same time, the deficit of the UK trade balance exceeds 3 billion pounds sterling and has a tendency to increase.

As the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, said on Tuesday, we should wait "restoring of momentum before raising the stakes".

Political events are also putting pressure on the pound. Conservative politician Jacob

Rice-Mogg, who actively supported Brexit, accused the British government of weakness. Statements by a government spokesman suggest a renewed risk of a change in the composition of the country's leadership. The pound is unlikely to grow until this uncertainty is resolved with Brexit and the composition of the UK government.

At the same time, the Fed leaders continue to give signals for the continuation of the Fed's policy, aimed at further tightening of monetary policy.

According to FOMC member Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policies to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".

Today, the focus of traders' attention will be the publication (at 18:00 GMT) of the protocol from the May meeting of the Fed. If it turns out that the Fed assesses the economy less optimistically than the market expects, then it can deploy the dollar, or at least suspend its strengthening.

At the December meeting, the leaders of the Federal Reserve planned 3 rate increases in 2018. However, investors expect that on the background of positive macro statistics and a strong labor market in the US, the Fed can make 4 rate increases this year.

This will significantly increase the investment attractiveness of the dollar among investors looking for a stable profit.

If the Fed's protocols contain signals about the possibility of 4 rate increases this year, then the strengthening of the dollar will continue.

The different focus of the monetary policy of the central banks of the United Kingdom and the United States will further reduce the GBP / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050

Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3450. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050

Buy Stop 1.3470. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3505, 1.3600

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: retail sales in the UK rose in April

24/05/2018



Current dynamics

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (ONS) report released on Thursday, retail sales in UK rose 1.6% in March after falling by -1.1% in March. The data presented became a pleasant surprise for the pound buyers after in the 1st quarter of this year compared to the last quarter of 2017, sales decreased by 0.5%.

The increase in retail sales may indicate the restoration of consumer confidence, as well as the acceleration of inflation, which may prompt the Bank of England to tighten its monetary policy. Nevertheless, the data released on Wednesday on consumer price inflation for April showed the weakest growth in more than a year.

In a broader perspective, "the growth in retail sales has slowed significantly, and the growth in sales of food, household items and sales in online stores has largely been offset by a decline in sales of many other goods and services", said National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Rob Kent-Smith. At the same time, it is likely that the salaries of the British will grow only gradually. In this case, the retail sector is likely to remain under pressure.

The UK economy is focused mainly on the domestic market, while the retail and domestic consumption sector is an important part of the British economy.

It is expected that in 2018 the UK economy will grow more slowly than other developed economies, as the uncertainty of the Brexit conditions puts pressure on activity and investment.

On Tuesday, the Governor of the Bank of England and members of the Committee on Monetary Policy said in Parliament that the bank could raise interest rates "in a few months". However, we should wait for "recovery of momentum before raising rates".

At the same time, as follows from the minutes of the May meeting of the Fed, published on Wednesday, the leaders of the US central bank came to the conclusion that "the next increase in interest rates will be expedient in the near future". However, there is no consensus on 3 or 4 rate increases this year among the leaders of the Fed.

Nevertheless, the leaders of the Fed intend to systematically pursue the planned monetary policy aimed at its further tightening.

With an increasing interest rate, the attractiveness of the dollar will grow. According to some leaders of the Fed, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".

Thus, the different focus of the monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the US, as well as the uncertainty about Brexit, will further reduce the GBP / USD pair.

From the news for today we are waiting for the speech at 17:00 (GMT) of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. If he touches on the topic of monetary policy in his speech, then volatility in pound trade can grow dramatically.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050

Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3680, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4025



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3470. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050

Buy Stop 1.3470. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3505, 1.3600, 1.3680

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: oil quotes are down

25/05/2018

Current dynamics

After the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Ministry reported on Wednesday about the growth of oil reserves in the US last week by 5.8 million barrels (although analysts had expected a decrease of 2.2 million barrels), quotes of oil prices crawled down.

Oil prices are also under pressure due to reports that OPEC at the June meeting may decide to increase oil production amid fears of a reduction in production in Iran and Venezuela.

On Thursday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia and other major oil producers at the OPEC+ meeting next month will discuss mitigation of the terms of the agreement on production reduction. The Russian minister noted that he will discuss with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members the possibility of a "gradual recovery of oil production".

Thus, the direction of the oil price dynamics is currently in the grip between the growth of oil reserves in the US and the intention of OPEC to increase oil production, on the one hand, and geopolitical risks, on the other hand.

Among geopolitical risks - the resumption of US sanctions against Iran and the aggravation of the crisis in Venezuela, which led to a reduction in oil production in the country. Trump's decision to withdraw from the "nuclear deal" with Iran is still a strong driver for rising oil prices. Because of possible US sanctions against Iran, the supply of oil in the world market may decrease by about 1 million barrels per day of Iranian oil.

As we see, the risks associated with the possible increase in oil production by OPEC so far outweigh, and oil prices are declining.

On Friday (at 17:00 GMT) a weekly report from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US will be published. Their number almost weekly grows and at the moment is 844 units. Another growth of this indicator will be another negative factor for the oil market and for oil prices.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 69.10, 68.00, 66.90, 66.30, 65.50

Resistance levels: 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 75.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 68.70. Stop-Loss 70.10. Take-Profit 68.00, 66.90, 66.30, 65.50

Buy Stop 70.10. Stop-Loss 68.70. Take-Profit 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: CAD weakens amid lower oil prices

28/05/2018



Current dynamics

On Wednesday, May 30, the Bank of Canada will be deciding on the interest rate. After the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% in April, the Canadian dollar declined. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.

Uncertainty over the NAFTA negotiations puts pressure on Canadian investment and exports, said earlier this month, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri, noting that "we (at the Bank of Canada) have to hedge themselves because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations".

The USD / CAD is currently in the grip between two differently directed factors. The strengthening US dollar and the uncertainty associated with the prolongation or amendment of the terms of the NAFTA agreement support the USD / CAD pair. At the same time, rising oil prices help strengthen the Canadian dollar and reduce the pair USD / CAD.

However, the last few days, oil prices are falling due to reports that OPEC may decide at its June meeting to increase oil production amid fears of a reduction in production in Iran and Venezuela.

So, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khaled Al-Falih said on Friday he wants to discuss the possibility of easing the requirements for limiting production with other participants in the OPEC + agreement during the meeting in June.

"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, the question of likely investors switching to US assets", said in the Bank of Canada in the accompanying statement after the decision on the interest rate at the previous meeting in April.

Economists expect that at the May meeting (May 30), the Bank of Canada will also not change the current monetary policy. The rate will remain at the current level of 1.25%.

Nevertheless, investors will carefully study the text of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada in order to understand the intentions of the central bank regarding the prospects for the monetary policy of the bank. Any hints of a rate hike in the coming months could cause a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market, primarily in currency pairs with the Canadian dollar, including in the pair USD / CAD.

If the rhetoric of the Bank of Canada's statement is soft, it will cause further weakening of the Canadian dollar. However, with the resumption of rising oil prices, it is also necessary to wait for the resumption of the strengthening of the Canadian dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2900, 1.2830, 1.2800, 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2940. Stop-Loss 1.3010. Take-Profit 1.2900, 1.2830, 1.2800, 1.2765, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550

Buy Stop 1.3010. Stop-Loss 1.2940. Take-Profit 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3300, 1.3450

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: demand for gold as a safe haven grew

29/05/2018

Current dynamics

On Sunday, Italian President Sergio Mattarella blocked the formation of a Eurosceptic government. On Monday, representatives of European countries expressed concern about the unstable political situation in Italy, which could provoke a new centrifugal crisis in the Eurozone.

The situation with Brexit is not yet fully settled, and in Spain a new political crisis is maturing after the referendum in Catalonia, the political crisis in Italy again made us speak about the future of a united Europe.

On Wednesday in Paris, high-ranking representatives of the EU and the US will hold talks on trade issues. Negotiations will take place in the context of deepening contradictions between Europe and the US on trade and defense issues. The European Commission was told that they will seek to abolish duties on imports of steel and aluminum in the US from Europe and exclude the EU from the duty regime two days before the end of the deferment of their introduction.

Investors as a whole avoid risks, in connection with which the prices for government bonds of the US and Germany are growing. The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2.8% on Tuesday from the level of 3,122%, fixed in the middle of last week. The yield of similar German bonds fell to 0.214% from yesterday's 0.340%.

The unstable geopolitical situation in the world once again provoked an increase in demand for safe haven assets, such as yen and gold. Quotes of gold on Tuesday increased again.

Nevertheless, the current growth in the price of gold in the face of a strengthening dollar can be considered corrective and used to build short positions on gold.

As you know, at the meeting that ended in early May, the Fed confirmed its intention to adhere to its plan to gradually tighten monetary policy. "Too slow increase of rates will lead to the fact that at some point it will be necessary to sharply tighten monetary and credit policy, putting GDP growth at risk", Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month.

On June 12-13, the Fed will hold a regular meeting, and most market participants believe that at this meeting the interest rate will be increased by 0.25% to 2.00%.

According to the Fed interest rate futures quotes, investors estimate the probability of a rate hike in June at about 100%, and the likelihood of another three rate increases this year is approximately 50% (compared to 32% a month earlier).

As you know, in the context of an increase in the interest rate, the price of gold is falling, because it is more difficult for him to compete with other objects for long-term investments that generate revenue, such as, for example, government bonds. At the same time, the investment attractiveness of the dollar is growing.

The focus of traders this week will be the publication (on Friday 12:30 (GMT)) of data from the US labor market. Strong figures are expected (the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy increased by 185,000 in May against +164,000 in April, unemployment remained at the same low level of 3.9%, the lowest level in the last 18 months). If the data prove to be better, the dollar will receive another strong support against the backdrop of positive macro statistics coming in recently from the US, and gold will continue to fall in price.

Only weak macro data from the United States, as well as an even greater strengthening of geopolitical tensions in the world, can push gold quotes higher. So far, negative dynamics prevails.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1299.00, 1295.00, 1282.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1248.00

Resistance level: 1304.00, 1310.00, 1325.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1311.00. Take-Profit 1295.00, 1282.00, 1277.00, 1274.00, 1248.00

Buy Stop 1311.00. Stop-Loss 1294.00. Take-Profit 1322.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CAD: The Bank of Canada will decide on the interest rate

30/05/2018



Current dynamics

Political instability in Italy and its possible consequences for the European economy forces investors to buy safe assets. Against this background, not only the euro is falling, but also the quotations of commodity currencies, as well as commodity prices, are falling. Against this negative background, the Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar, reaching a 2-month low at 1.3045 on Tuesday.

The US dollar, which also enjoys the status of a safe asset in this situation, continued to grow on Tuesday. The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, reached its new annual high of 94.98 on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, on Wednesday the US dollar took a pause and declined from the opening of the trading day. Futures on DXY traded at the beginning of the European session on Wednesday near the mark of 94.35.

Today the publication of important macroeconomic data is expected.

In particular, at 12:15 (GMT) ADP data on the number of jobs in the private sector of the US for May will come out. If they are strong, then the positive trend of the dollar will resume. As a result, the dollar index DXY could rise to 96, according to many economists. It is expected that the number of employed in the private sector of the US rose in May by 190,000 (after an increase of +204,000 in April). Strong ADP data on employment in the private sector will support the upward momentum of the dollar.

At 12:30 (GMT), the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the US Department of Commerce will publish data on US GDP for the first quarter (second estimate). Data on GDP are one of the key (along with data on the labor market and inflation) for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. In the previous quarter, GDP growth was + 2.5%. The forecast for the 1st quarter of this year is 2.3% (2.3% on the preliminary release). The dollar will decrease only if the data prove to be much worse than the forecast.

Despite the decline observed today, the dollar continues to dominate the foreign exchange market.

At 14:00 (GMT) the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate will be published. It is expected that the Bank of Canada will not change the current monetary policy. The rate will remain at the current level of 1.25%.

As Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said earlier this month, the Bank of Canada "has to hedge itself because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations".

The strengthening US dollar and the uncertainty associated with the prolongation or amendment of the terms of the NAFTA agreement support the USD / CAD pair.

Nevertheless, investors will carefully study the text of the accompanying statement of the Bank of Canada. Rigid rhetoric of the accompanying statement and any hint of a rate hike in the coming months could cause a surge in volatility in the foreign exchange market and lead to the strengthening of the Canadian dollar.

If the rhetoric of the Bank of Canada's statement is soft, it will cause further weakening of the Canadian dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2865, 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2960. Stop-Loss 1.3050. Take-Profit 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2865, 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550

Buy Stop 1.3050. Stop-Loss 1.2960. Take-Profit 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3300, 1.3450

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

WTI: decrease of reserves in US oil storage facilities is expected

31/05/2018

Current dynamics

As the American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Wednesday evening, US oil inventories rose by 1 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels.

This is negative information for oil quotes, which are again declining after corrective growth the day before.

At the beginning of the European trading session on Thursday, the price of WTI crude oil fell below the psychological level of 68.00 dollars per barrel.

After reaching an annual maximum near the $ 73.00 per barrel level last week, prices fell by 10% over the next 5 trading days, coming close to $ 66.00 per barrel.

The fall in oil prices was triggered by expectations that OPEC might increase oil production in June.

Last Friday, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced plans to soften the terms of the OPEC + agreement and increase oil production. The OPEC + agreement on production reduction came into force in January 2017, and since then oil prices have risen by about 35%. The agreement expires at the end of 2018.

Earlier in May, Brent oil prices broke through the level of $ 80 per barrel, and this happened for the first time since 2014.

Now, due to an increase in production of 1 million barrels per day, prices may fall by about $ 15 per barrel.

On Friday, a weekly report from the American oilfield service company Baker Hughes was released, according to which the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US increased again and currently stands at 859 units (against 844 in the week before last). The growth of this indicator is another negative factor for the oil market and for oil prices.

On Thursday, oil market participants are waiting for the publication of weekly data from the US Department of Energy, which will be released at 14:30 (GMT). It is expected that oil and oil products stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels last week. If the data is confirmed, then it will support oil prices.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 67.00, 66.30, 65.50

Resistance levels: 68.00, 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 67.30. Stop-Loss. 68.20. Take-Profit 67.00, 66.30, 65.50

Buy Stop 68.20. Stop-Loss 67.30. Take-Profit 68.85, 70.00, 71.25, 72.80, 74.00, 75.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the activity of traders is minimal before NFP

01/06/2018



Current dynamics

The volume of consumer lending in the UK in April rose sharply after a period of weakness in March.

The data published on Thursday pointed to the strongest growth in unsecured consumer lending for almost 18 months. Unsecured consumer lending jumped to 1.8 billion pounds in April after falling to 400 million British pounds in March.

This signal can affect the Bank of England and convince in the need to raise the key interest rate in the coming months.

On Friday, the pound gained additional support after the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector, which in May exceeded the forecast of 53.5, to 54.4, was published at the beginning of the European session.

The production growth accelerated to the highest level in the last year of the current year against the backdrop of the strongest growth in inventories over the entire 26-year history of observations and a sharp reduction in outstanding orders.

After the publication of the data, the pound strengthened, and the GBP / USD pair increased by 30 points relative to the opening price of today.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is trading almost unchanged, while investors are preparing to the publishing of important economic report at the end of the week.

The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, today declined slightly at the beginning of the European session, to 93.95, after it reached its next annual maximum of 94.98 on Tuesday.

At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will report on the most important indicators of the labor market in the US in May (Average hourly wage / Number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector / Unemployment rate). Forecast: + 0.2% (against + 0.1% in April) / 188 000 (against 164 000 in April) / 3.9% (against 3.9% in April), respectively.

In general, the indicators can be called strong. If they coincide with the forecast or come out better, then this will have a positive effect on the USD.

Strong data will strengthen the likelihood of four Fed rate increases this year. In this case, the investment attractiveness of the dollar will grow.

According to some leaders of the Fed, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".

Thus, the different focus of the monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the US, as well as the uncertainty about Brexit, will further reduce the GBP / USD.

However, if the data prove to be worse than the forecast or market participants find the report on the labor market weak, then the dollar will inevitably fall.

In any case, it is often difficult to predict the market reaction to the publication of indicators. Often, a strong move to the one side should be followed by an equally strong rollback to the other side, since the data published earlier is often revised.

Probably the most successful trading position today will be to stay out of the market, at least, in this period of time.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050

Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3580, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4000



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop-Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3050

Buy Stop 1.3350. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3580, 1.3620

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com