Tifia Daily Market Analytics

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: financial markets are waiting important events

02/11/2017

Current dynamics

For several days in a row, the main US stock indexes are traded in a narrow range, while maintaining, in general, a positive dynamic.

As it became known, on Saturday Trump stopped on the candidacy of Powell. He is a Republican and since 2010 has been one of the central bank governors, well aware of the Fed's activities "from within". Powell is considered to be a supporter of the actions of the current head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, and is less inclined to aggressively tighten monetary and credit policy than other candidates. In his opinion, the Fed's actions to raise interest rates "should be carried out gradually, while the development of the economic situation in the country roughly corresponds to expectations". The appointment of Powell is likely to mean continuity in the conduct of monetary policy and, perhaps, a slight easing of measures to regulate financial markets.

In addition, the Fed on Wednesday, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged, but signaled that it could raise them one more time this year. Until the end of the year, another meeting of the Fed is scheduled, which should be held December 12-13.

"Economic activity is growing at a strong pace, despite the obstacles, made by hurricanes," the Fed said in a statement following the meeting that ended on Wednesday.

Markets with a high degree of confidence expect a rate hike in December.

At the beginning of the European session, the dollar partially recovered from the initial losses, but remained on the negative territory to most other major currencies. Yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, fell to 2.371% from 2.378% recorded on Wednesday, and investors, just in case, buy gold in case of unforeseen events.

Today investors are waiting for a busy day. The Bank of England is expected to raise the key interest rate for the first time in more than a decade, while Republicans in the United States are preparing to publish a plan for changing the taxation system.

At 12:00 (GMT), the Bank of England's interest rate decision will be published, and at 12:30 the Bank of England head, Mark Carney, will make an explanation of the bank's further plans.

Thus, today, volatility in the financial markets is expected to grow rapidly. Nevertheless, the US stock market is expected to retain a positive momentum. In addition, analysts closely monitor corporate reporting, which many regard as the main driver of the rally in the stock markets this year

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

Last month DJIA updated the absolute maximum near the mark 23460.0. Since January 2016 DJIA has been growing steadily. Especially remarkable are the last 8 almost recoilless weeks of growth.

Positive dynamics is maintained, and at the beginning of today's European session, the index is trading near the mark of 23400.0. In case of breakthrough of resistance level 23460.0, DJIA growth will continue until the price "gropes" for new resistance levels.

Consideration of short positions is possible only in the short term with targets at support levels 22900.0 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), 22720.0 (EMA50 on the daily chart).

The signal to open short positions will be a breakdown of short-term support level of 23340.0 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

So far, the DJIA index is trading above the key support levels of 21610.0 (the Fibonacci level is 23.6% correction to the wave growth from the level of 15660.0 after the recovery in February of this year to the collapse of the markets since the beginning of the year. The maximum of this wave and Fibonacci 0% is near the mark 23460.0), 21460.0 (EMA200 on the daily chart), its long-term positive dynamics persists.

Support levels: 23340.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0

Resistance levels: 23460.0


Trading scenarios

Buy Stop 23490.0. Stop-Loss 23300.0. Take-Profit 23600.0, 23700.0, 24000.0

Sell Stop 23300.0. Stop-Loss 23490.0. Take-Profit 23285.0, 22820.0, 22670.0, 22410.0, 22140.0, 22000.0, 21610.0, 21460.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

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[TifiaFX]

GBP / USD: on the eve of NFP publication

03/11/2017

Current dynamics

The index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector in October was 55.6 (forecast was 53.4, in September PMI for the UK services sector was 53.6). Such data was presented today by the Royal Institute of Procurement and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics. This index is an indicator of the economic situation in the services sector of the UK and does not have such a strong impact on GDP, as PMI in the manufacturing sector. Despite the strong performance, the pound reacted rather sluggishly to the data presented. Investors continue to assess yesterday's decision by the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the speech of the head of the bank Mark Carney.

As you know, the rate was raised to 0.5% from 0.25%, for the first time in the last 10 years, which was not a surprise. Two of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee David Ramsden and John Cunliffe voted against the decision, remaining dissatisfied with the low growth in the British salaries and the decline in domestic spending. The UK economy is largely oriented to the domestic market, and a weak growth or decrease in domestic consumption costs negatively affects the country's GDP growth.

The minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England also indicated the need for two stages of raising the rate by the same amount until 2020. In response, the rate of the pound and UK government bonds fell. On Thursday, the pound fell to the dollar by 1.4%.

The uncertainty that emerged after the vote for secession from the EU in June 2016 continues to have a negative impact on the country's economy. According to the forecast of the Bank of England, in 2018 and in subsequent years, GDP growth will be 1.7%.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the index of the dollar WSJ, assessing its rate to 16 currencies, grew by 0.1%. Investors continue to assess the details of the Republican project and the appointment of Jerome Powell to the post of head of the Fed.

Today, investors are preparing to publish (at 12:30 GMT) data on the number of jobs outside of US agriculture in October. This report is a key indicator of the state of the US economy, and favorable data will be taken into account by the Fed in the decision to raise rates at the meeting on December 13. It is expected that the number of jobs (indicator NFP) in October increased by 312,000. In September, for the first time in seven years, there was a decrease in the number of new jobs (by 33,000), which is explained by hurricanes.

If the data is confirmed, the dollar will continue to strengthen. If the data prove to be much weaker, for example, below 150,000 new jobs, the dollar will react with a decline throughout the currency market. In any case, a surge in volatility is expected in the period of publication of data from the labor market. Often there is a sharp jump in the dollar in one direction and no less sharp subsequent rollback. Many traders in the US call the day of publication of data on the labor market "pay day".

Also, important US macro data (business activity indices in the services sector and production orders) will be published at 14:45 and 15:00 (GMT), which can become a generator of either a rollback after a strong movement on the NFP, or an incentive to strengthen the dollar's movement to the same side.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics




Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3030. Stop-Loss 1.3110. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.3110. Stop-Loss 1.3030. Take-Profit 1.3185, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3740, 1.3970, 1.4100

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited

07/11/2017

Current dynamics

Yesterday, the New Zealand dollar received support after New Zealand's finance minister Grant Robertson said he did not want to include targeting of the national currency in the new responsibilities of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

As it became known, the new government of New Zealand intends to new evaluate the policy of the RBNZ. At the first stage, changes will be recommended to the RBNZ policy aimed at increasing employment in New Zealand, and changes will be offered regarding the RBNZ leadership. Decisions in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, while the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.

It is still not clear how the planned changes in the activities of the RBNZ will affect the quotations of the New Zealand currency. Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.

A survey of business circles conducted last week in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The last two weeks there has been a recovery of the New Zealand dollar, which became the leader of the fall last month after the results of the general elections in New Zealand, held at the end of September, became known.

Nevertheless, the growth of the NZD/USD is likely to be limited in the face of the strengthening US dollar and, therefore, the decline in commodity prices and the quotations of commodity currencies, which include the New Zealand dollar.

The US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market as against the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against the background of the appointment of a new Fed governor, who will take office in February next year. According to some economists, under the leadership of the new head of the Fed can raise rates not three, but four times in 2018. It is assumed that at the next meeting, which is scheduled for December 12-13, the interest rate will be increased by 0.25%. In the future, the Fed may raise the rate quarterly, starting in March 2018.

Thus, the fundamental factors testify to the further reduction of the NZD / USD.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -1% (against the previous value of -2.4%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, therefore, a decline in world prices for dairy products will hurt the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6970. Take-Profit 0.6900, 0.6860, 0.6800

Buy Stop 0.6970. Stop-Loss 0.6890. Take-Profit 0.7000, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7140, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: prices remain on mid-2015 highs

08/11/2017

Current dynamics

Quotations of oil futures fell on Tuesday, however, they remained on the mid-2015 highs. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.53%, to 63.35 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 63.55 dollars per barrel after the day before the price reached the high of 2017 near the mark of 64.45 dollars per barrel.

Oil prices at the beginning of the week rose to their highest levels since 2015 due to the fact that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the arrest of more than 50 people on suspicion of corruption, including members of the royal family, ministers and big businessmen.

Oil prices also received support after Yemeni hussites rebels launched a ballistic missile in the vicinity of Riyadh, which was shot down in the vicinity of the capital. The tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which supports the hussites, intensified. Both countries are members of OPEC.

Investors are concerned that the power struggle in Saudi Arabia, which is the world's largest oil exporter, brings uncertainty to the market, and numerous conflicts in the Middle East can lead to disruptions in oil supplies.

Also, the rise in prices is fueled by the expectation that at the November meeting, OPEC will extend the deal. As you know, last year, OPEC and other oil exporters, including Russia, entered into an agreement to reduce total production by 1.8 million barrels a day. In Vienna on November 30, OPEC will hold a meeting, within which the extension of the agreement on the reduction of production, which expires in March 2018, will be discussed.

Today, traders are waiting for data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy on oil reserves in the country. The weekly EIA report will be published at 15.30 (GMT).

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), which was published on Tuesday evening, US oil inventories fell 1.6 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks increased by 520,000 barrels, and distillate stocks decreased by 3.1 million barrels, according to the API report.

There is a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature. The next target is resistance level 65.30 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).

Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are on the buyers’ side. Long positions are preferred.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 62.90. Stop-Loss 63.90. Take-Profit 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00

Buy Stop 63.90. Stop-Loss 62.90. Take-Profit 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

XAU/USD: demand for safe assets increased

09/11/2017

Current dynamics

Mass arrests in Saudi Arabia, including members of the royal family, a missile attack on this country by Yemeni rebels, as well as the appearance of risks of slipping in the implementation of the plans of the presidential administration for tax reform, provoked purchase of gold as a safe haven.

December gold futures on COMEX finished trading on Wednesday with an increase of 0.6%, at $ 1,283.70 per troy ounce.

Reports in the press that the US Republican Party can make changes to its tax reform plan or postpone it for a year, provoked a decline in quotations of the dollar. Some economists believe that tax reform can spur the growth of the US economy and allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster pace. Expectations for raising rates tend to put pressure on gold, which can not compete with more profitable assets with rising borrowing costs.

Under conditions of a soft monetary policy in the US and against the backdrop of geopolitical or economic uncertainty, the price of gold, as a rule, is growing.

As a result, gold prices on Wednesday closed at 2-week highs, and with the opening of today's trading day quotes on it are rising again.

So, the spot price for gold at the beginning of today's European session is near the mark of 1284.00 dollars per troy ounce.

Of the news for today, we are waiting for publication at 13:30 (GMT) of weekly data on the labor market (number of applications for unemployment benefits) for the United States. According to the forecast, a slight increase in the indicator is expected - up to 231,000 versus 229,000 for the previous period. However, this figure remains below 300,000 for almost 140 consecutive weeks, which is the longest period since 1970. The consistently low level of applications for unemployment benefits is one of the signs of a strong US labor market.

The stable state of the labor market in the US and the low level of unemployment (just above 4%) is a powerful argument for the Fed in considering the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the US. And this is a downward factor for the price of gold.

According to the CME Group, the probability of a rate hike in December is taken into account by investors in about 97%.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

With the opening of today, the XAU/USD is growing, making an attempt to gain a foothold above the short-term resistance level at 1283.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). Through the mark of 1283.00 also passes the lower limit of the ascending channel on the weekly chart.

If the price is fixed above the local resistance level of 1287.00 (weekly highs), risk of the returning XAU/USD to the upward channel on the weekly chart, the upper limit of which runs near the resistance level of 1370.00 (the beginning of the wave of decline since July 2016 and the Fibonacci level of 100%) grows.

The reverse scenario involves a breakdown of the support level of 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the drop in the wave from July 2016 and EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and a decline to support levels of 1267.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 1260.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The breakdown of the support level of 1248.00 (the Fibonacci level of 50%) raises the risk of the XAU/USD returning to the downtrend.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the weekly, monthly charts went to the side of sellers.

Support levels: 1277.00, 1273.00, 1267.00, 1260.00, 1248.00

Resistance levels: 1283.00, 1287.00, 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1281.00. Stop-Loss 1286.00. Take-Profit 1277.00, 1273.00, 1267.00, 1260.00, 1248.00

Buy Stop 1286.00. Stop-Loss 1281.00. Take-Profit 1290.00, 1305.00, 1312.00, 1340.00, 1350.00, 1357.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: RBA is in indecision

10/11/2017

Overview and dynamics

After earlier in the week the leadership of the RBA again decided to leave the key rate at 1.5%, the Australian dollar remains under pressure. The rate remains at this level since August 2016, and the central bank will most likely leave it unchanged until mid-2018.

The longer the RBA will remain idle, while many central banks raise interest rates, the stronger the Australian dollar will fall.

Despite the fact that Australian economic data draws a contradictory picture, the RBA is confident in accelerating GDP growth over time. In the coming years, the central bank expects to accelerate the annual GDP growth to 3%, which is almost double the current rate. The Australian economy for the current year has created more than a million jobs, which led to a drop in unemployment. At the same time, indicators of conditions for doing business and business confidence have peaked in the last ten years.

On the other hand, inflation data for the 3rd quarter were not particularly impressive. Core inflation, according to the RBA, will not reach the lower end of the target range of 2% -3% until mid-2019. Retail sales in the middle of the year fell sharply, and a slowdown in house prices could undermine consumer confidence.

Thus, the Reserve Bank of Australia is in a difficult situation. It can not raise interest rates with weak inflation and high levels of consumer debt, but it can not reduce them because of fears of increasing risks of destabilizing the financial system.

Many economists believe that the RBA will return to the issue of raising the interest rate in the country not earlier than mid-2019.

And this, amid a large-scale strengthening of the US dollar due to the expectations of a phased tightening of monetary policy in the US, creates the conditions for further reduction of the AUD / USD pair.

Support levels: 0.7650, 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460

Resistance levels: 0.7720, 0.7755, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7710. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7570, 0.7500, 0.7460

Buy Stop 0.7710. Stop-Loss 0.7610. Take-Profit 0.7720, 0.7760, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: Support and resistance levels

13/11/2017


There remains a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature. If growth continues, the next target is resistance level 65.30 (Fibonacci level 100% correction to decline from the level of 65.30 from June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00).

Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the daily, weekly, monthly charts are still on the buyers side. Long positions are preferred.

Consideration of short positions is possible after the return of the price under the support level of 62.35 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart). The immediate goal is the support level of 59.30 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

And only if the price returns to the level of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart) will the risks of resuming the downtrend increase with targets at 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (lows in August), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).

Support levels: 62.90, 62.35, 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 59.30, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00

Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 62.30. Stop-Loss 64.50. Take-Profit 62.00, 61.50, 60.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.70, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00

Buy Stop 64.50. Stop-Loss 62.30. Take-Profit 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: inflation rate in the UK fell slightly

14/11/2017

Current dynamics

After the data on inflation in the UK were released at the beginning of today's European session, the pound declined.

According to the British Office of National Statistics, inflation in the UK in October was 3% (forecast was + 3.1%), which indicates the possible end of a sharp acceleration in price growth caused by the collapse of the British pound after last year's referendum on UK membership in the EU.

Core inflation also failed to reach the forecast of 2.9%, amounting, as in September, 2.7%.

Nevertheless, inflation is still much higher than the target level of the Bank of England, which is 2%. At the same time, prices are growing faster than a salary, which means that consumer spending will remain low-key.

This is a negative factor for the pound and the country's economy, which focuses on domestic consumption.

The pound continues to remain under pressure also against the backdrop of the crisis that is ripening in the UK government. As you know, several dozen members of the British Parliament favored the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May. At the weekend, the Sunday Times reported that 40 parliamentarians agreed to sign a letter of no confidence in Theresa May. The Brexit talks resumed last week, and, according to EU officials, Britain's hopes for the progress of negotiations in December are weakening.

Thus, the problems in the negotiations of the UK with the EU on Brexit, political uncertainty in the country, based on growing dissatisfaction with the activities of the Prime Minister of the UK, as well as the Bank of England's restrained attitude to the issue of further tightening of monetary policy (as is known earlier this month, the Bank of England decided to raise the key interest rate by 0.25% and planned two more rate hikes in the next two years) create a negative background for the pound. To this, it should be added that last week the European Commission lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the UK this year, including, due to a weak increase in investment in the UK economy against the background of Brexit.

At the same time, the dollar is recovering today. As it became known, the administration of President Trump will not support the law on taxes, if it provides for a corporate tax rate of over 20%. This was announced the day before by US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support levels: 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.3125. Take-Profit 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.3125. Stop-Loss 1.3080. Take-Profit 1.3137, 1.3175, 1.3210, 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

AUD/USD: Downtrend prevails

15/11/2017

Current dynamics

Weak data on the growth of wages in Australia, as well as on the level of consumer confidence, published at the beginning of today's Asian trading session, "knocked" the Australian dollar, which fell 4-month low against the US dollar.

According to data provided on Wednesday, wage growth in the 3rd quarter was 0.5% compared to the previous quarter (the forecast was + 0.7%).

The Australian dollar remained today almost the only major world currency, declining against the US dollar. And so far, the fundamental background for the Australian dollar remains negative.

We are waiting for data from the USA today. It is expected that the growth in retail sales in October was 0% (against growth of 1.6% in September). The consumer price index, which is a key indicator for estimating inflation and changing consumer preferences, is also expected with a value just above 0 (+ 0.1%).

These are very weak values. If the weak data on inflation in the US are confirmed, the US dollar will continue to decline. In this case, an upward correction in the AUD/USD is likely.

Recall that the publication of macro data from the United States is scheduled for 13:30 (GMT).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

AUD / USD continues to decline in the downward channel on the daily chart, the lower limit of which runs near the support level of 0.7535 (balance line and EMA200 on the daily chart in April 2017).

AUD / USD is below the key resistance levels 0.7710 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 0.7740 (EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart).

Downward dynamics prevails. Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly and monthly charts are on the side of sellers.

In the event of further downside, the targets will be support levels of 0.7535, 0.7460 (Fibonacci level of 23.6% correction to the wave of decline of the pair since July 2014; the minimum of the wave is near 0.6830 level). The breakdown of the support level of 0.7460 will return the AUD / USD into a global downtrend that began in July 2014.

You can proceed to consideration of long positions only after AUD / USD returns to the zone above the resistance level 0.7740 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA144 and the top line of the descending channel on the daily chart). The growth targets in this case will be the levels of 0.7850 (Fibonacci level 38.2%), 0.7885 (October highs), 0.7980 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460

Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980



Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7660. Take-Profit 0.7580, 0.7535, 0.7500, 0.7460

Buy Stop 0.7660. Stop-Loss 0.7590. Take-Profit 0.7710, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7980

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: the price may stay in the range until the end of November

17/11/2017

Current dynamics

The third day, oil is trading in the range after a sharp decline in the price at the beginning of the week. January futures for Brent crude oil fell in price by 0.21%, to 61.23 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of today's trading day was close to the level of 61.00 dollars per barrel.

Nevertheless, at the beginning of today's European session, the price is close to 62.00, through which there is a strong short-term resistance level (200-period moving average on the 1-hour chart).

Since the opening of the trading day, the price has risen by 1.00 dollars. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that on the eve of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of this month, prices may remain in the range. It is expected that the meeting will extend the deal to reduce oil production.

As the UAE oil minister said earlier this week, "there is a potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the surplus on the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement," the minister added.

Today (17:00 GMT), the report of the Baker Hughes oilfield services company on the number of active drilling platforms in the US, which is an important indicator of the activity of the oil sector of the US economy, will be published and significantly affects the quotations of oil prices. The current value of the indicator is 738 active drilling rigs.

If the number of drilling rigs increases, this will indicate the next recovery of oil production in the United States. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support and resistance levels

A strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force and keeps prices from a deeper decline. The current decrease should be considered so far as correctional.

In case of resumption of growth, the nearest target will be resistance level 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart). The growth above the level of 65.30 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.30 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the 27.00 mark.

If the decline resumes, then up to the support level of 59.85 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), it should still be considered only as a correction in the uptrend.

Long positions are preferred.

Consideration of short medium-term positions is possible after the price returns under support level 59.85. The first signal for the opening of short positions will be the breakdown of the short-term support level of 61.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart).

The medium-term targets in this case will be the support levels of 55.00 (EMA200 on the weekly chart), 54.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 50.70 (Fibonacci level 61.8%) 50.00 (August lows), 48.75, 48.00 , 46.20 (Fibonacci 50%), 44.50 (lows of the year), 41.70 (the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% of the correction to the decline from the level of 65.30 since June 2015).

Support levels: 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00

Resistance levels: 62.00, 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00


Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 60.80. Stop-Loss 62.20. Take-Profit 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00

Buy Stop. 62.20. Stop-Loss 60.80. Take-Profit 62.90, 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

GBP/USD: the range remains relevant

20/11/2017

Current dynamics

Published in the press on the weekend news, that German Chancellor Angela Merkel failed to create a ruling coalition, caused a surge in volatility at the opening of trading on Monday.

Euro, as well as European stock indexes, above all, DAX (the leading German index), fell at the opening of today. The fall of the euro against the pound in the pair EUR / GBP caused, on the contrary, the growth of the pound, including against the dollar. The pound gets support also against the backdrop of the fact that British Prime Minister Theresa May will most likely convince the government to support the increase in the payment to the European Union for Brexit.

As you know, the financial question is the cornerstone in the Brexit process. In September, British Prime Minister Theresa May promised that Britain would pay its share in the EU budget until 2020. But the EU authorities said that they still do not have a clear understanding of whether the UK will fully fulfill its obligations. The final amount of payments on Brexit may exceed 60 billion euros. It even mentions a figure of 100 billion euros, but representatives of the UK dispute this figure.

Last week, the representative of the EU in Brexit talks from the EU Michelle Barbier stated that it would be time for Britain to clarify the situation on the issues of "exit" from the bloc.

The draft budget will be presented on Wednesday. UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond will present his plan for taxes and expenses, which, apparently, will be met with approval. On this positive for the pound background, the GBP / USD pair can update the local highs of the previous month near the 1.3335 mark.

Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for the pound will remain negative until the details of the UK's exit procedure from the EU are finally understood.

Investors will also be interested in data on public sector borrowing, which will be presented on Tuesday (09:30 GMT), as well as the volume of capital investments of British companies in the third quarter, which will be known on Thursday (09:30 GMT). Also at this time on Thursday will be published the second estimate of GDP growth in the UK in the third quarter. Economists expect that in the third quarter GDP grew by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter, which coincides with a preliminary estimate.

Also volatility in the financial markets may rise on Wednesday, after at 18:00 (GMT) will be published "FOMC minutes". In the published minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, investors will seek signals on the future of US monetary policy. The publication of the protocol is extremely important for determining the course of the current policy of the Fed and the prospects for raising the interest rate in the United States. According to interest rate futures, the probability of a rate hike in December in the US is above 90%.

Economists expect that the US labor market situation will continue to improve, and inflation will rise to a target level of 2%, which will force the Fed to raise the key interest rate four times next year.

And this is the strongest factor for the growth of the dollar, including in the pair GBP / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3145, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3230. Stop-Loss 1.3280. Take-Profit 1.3200, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3065, 1.3020, 1.2975, 1.2590, 1.2365, 1.2110, 1.2000

Buy Stop 1.3280. Stop-Loss 1.3230. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3335, 1.3400, 1.3440, 1.3500, 1.3630, 1.3760, 1.3970, 1.4100

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

NZD/USD: pair growth will be limited

21/11/2017

Current dynamics

The large-scale decline in the New Zealand dollar, which began in August, continues. An additional downward impulse to the New Zealand currency was given by the general elections held in late September in New Zealand, as a result of which the ruling conservative party was defeated. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. First of all, this refers to the improvement of the situation on the labor market of the country. For example, unemployment in the 3rd quarter fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis.

It is still too early to say what adjustments the new government will make to the earlier forecasts. Nevertheless, a survey of business circles conducted earlier this month in the country showed a sharp drop in confidence, and it turned out to be much lower than its average. The new government of New Zealand intends to reassess the RBNZ policy. Now the decision-making in the central bank will have to be carried out by the vote of the committee, whereas the role of the manager will go to the background. Further changes in the RBNZ policy will be discussed with the involvement of independent experts.

As a result of the meeting of the RB of New Zealand held in early November, the interest rate was maintained at the current level of 1.75%.

According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.

Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters has already hinted that a weakening of the New Zealand dollar could help the country's exporters.

On the other hand, the US dollar continues to strengthen in the foreign exchange market both the background of positive macroeconomic data coming from the US, and against expectations of a gradual increase in the rate of the Fed. According to some economists, the Fed can raise the rate not three, but four times in 2018.

Fundamental factors support the further reduction of the NZD / USD pair.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the price index for dairy products, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out with a value of -3.5% (against the previous value of -1.0%). Dairy products - one of the main exports of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products will harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.6800, 0.6775

Resistance levels: 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270





Trading scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.6830. Take-Profit 0.6800, 0.6775, 0.6700

Buy Stop 0.6830. Stop-Loss 0.6790. Take-Profit 0.6863, 0.6900, 0.6960, 0.7030, 0.7075, 0.7100

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

S&P500: major indexes have updated highs

22/11/2017

Current dynamics

World stock indexes on Wednesday continued to rise. On the eve, the major US stock indices Dow Jones Industrial Average, S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite updated record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 23590, S & P 500 added 0.7%, Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1%.

The leaders of growth were shares of technology companies. Apple's shares rose 1.9%, International Business Machines shares rose 1%, Microsoft shares rose 1.4%. The shares of these three technological giants made the largest contribution to the growth of DJIA. The shares of retailers also significantly strengthened. "Dollar Tree" went up by 2.4%, after the profit and proceeds of this discounter exceeded expectations. Shares of Hormel grew by 3.3%.

Yesterday's rally completely offset the losses suffered by the indices in the last two weeks. This points to the strength of growth, despite concerns about the high ratings and unclear prospects for the tax reform proposed by the Republicans.

Only a large increase in rates or a decline in the economy, according to economists, could lead to a more significant decline in the American stock market. In the next 6-12 months, this is not expected, therefore, most likely, the bullish trend will continue.

On Wednesday, trading on the stock markets is sluggish in anticipation of a weekend in the US on Thursday, and a shortened one on Friday.

Investors analyzed the statement of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, who said that she would withdraw from the Board of Governors of the Central Bank, as soon as Jerome Powell will replace her at the post in February.

Today Janet Yellen delivered a speech at the business school at New York University, which investors regarded as soft. "We expect inflation to rise (to the target level) in the next one or two years, but I have to say that I'm not sure about it", Yellen said.

"We have almost reached full employment", Yellen said. The unemployment rate in October was 4.1%, becoming the lowest since December 2000. The Fed is facing a problem of low inflation for most of this year, despite the growth of the economy and a strong labor market.

Yellen did not comment on the immediate prospects for monetary policy. The probability of a rate hike in December is above 90%, according to the CME Group. The last time the Fed raised rates in June, to the range of 1% -1.25%. At its meeting on September 19-20, the Fed signaled another increase in rates this year. It is expected that in 2018, the Fed will raise 3 or 4 times.

As Janet Yellen previously stated, the rate hike speaks of the strength of the American economy. It is unlikely that a gradual increase in rates will cause a reversal of the bullish stock market. On the contrary, the banking sector of the economy will benefit from this.

Today, investors will focus on the publication (at 19:00 GMT) of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed (minutes FOMC). Investors will carefully study the text to understand the outlook for the current Fed policy and the increasing of the interest rate in the US. Volatility during the publication of the protocol can significantly increase, especially against the backdrop of low trading volumes on the eve of the celebration of Thanksgiving Day in the US on Thursday.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2594.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0

Resistance levels: 2598.0, 2600.0, 2650.0, 2700.0



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2592.0. Stop-Loss 2600.0. Objectives 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2480.0, 2444.0, 2415.0

Buy Stop 2600.0 Stop-Loss 2592.0. Objectives 2650.0, 2700.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/CHF: the dollar shows a large-scale decline

23/11/2017

Current dynamics

After yesterday (19:00 GMT) minutes from the November meeting of the Fed were published, the dollar collapsed throughout the currency market. Although, in general, the protocols continued to testify to the Fed's commitment to further tightening monetary policy, there was something new in the rhetoric of the Fed's statements, which alarmed investors. Fed executives said that interest rates in December will be increased by 0.25%, however, they are not sure about the reasons for maintaining sluggish inflation. This, according to investors, can slow down the pace of monetary tightening in the coming year.

The uncertainty about the Fed's leadership regarding the inflation forecast calls into question the vigorous pace of tightening monetary policy in the US. Earlier, it was announced about 3, and according to some information, 4 rate increases in 2018, starting already in March.

As a result, yesterday the index of the dollar WSJ fell by 0.8% after the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting, and today the decline in the dollar continues against the backdrop of low trading volumes. The US and Japanese stock markets are closed today on the occasion of the holidays.

On the Eurozone today, positive macro statistics emerged, which caused the euro to rise, including against the dollar, provoking additional pressure on the dollar.

The dollar fell strongly against safe haven assets, such as gold, yen, franc. Concerning the dynamics of the franc, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the Head of the National Bank of Switzerland, Thomas Jordan, scheduled for today (16:30 GMT).

The Swiss National Bank is pursuing an extra soft monetary policy, trying to disperse inflation in the country and supporting Swiss producers supplying their products for export. To disperse inflation, which is at a record low 0.7%, and lower, the NBS prints huge amounts of francs and uses them to buy foreign shares and bonds. From Thomas Jordan, traders will be waiting for signals about further plans for monetary policy of the National Bank. If he again traditionally declares his adherence to the course of the central bank, then the franc can react with a decrease, including against the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


The negative dynamics is prevailing.

In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.9800, the targets for the decline will be support levels of 0.9775 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300), 0.9730 (EMA144, EMA200, bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 0.9800, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445

Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000



Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9840. Stop-Loss 0.9790. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

Sell Stop 0.9790. Stop-Loss 0.9840. Take-Profit 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: The dollar is recovering, but continues to decline against the euro

24/11/2017

Current dynamics

The third day, the EUR / USD is growing and at the beginning of today's European session again reached the level of 1.1875 (last month's highs). The growth of the pair is facilitated by the sharp weakening of the dollar after the publication of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed, and the strengthening of the euro against the background of positive macro data on the Eurozone, published on Thursday and Friday.

Today we received information about the growth of business optimism in Germany in November.

The German IFO index reached a new record high of 117.5 (against the forecast of 116.6 and 116.8 in October), the index of expectations in Germany rose to 111.0 in November (against the forecast of 108.9 and 109.2 last month).

The economy of Germany, which is the leading economy of the Eurozone, ranked 4th in the world in terms of GDP, is moving towards a boom. Among the leaders of the Fed there is uncertainty about the rate of inflation, which may somewhat reduce investors' optimism about future increases in rates in the US. At the same time, in the minutes of the ECB meeting published on Thursday, it was said about the proposal of some leaders in the guidelines for the future policy of the ECB - not to link the quantitative easing program to the steady growth of inflation.

According to economists, this is a key factor, since it "implies the possibility of completing the program for the purchase of assets in 2018, even if there are no clear signs of accelerating inflation."

The dollar is now attempting to recover from a large-scale decline the day before and is rising against commodity currencies and the yen. Nevertheless, the dollar is falling against the euro.

A number of positive macro data on the Eurozone, received in the last two days, more than offset political uncertainty in Germany, where the ruling conservative party of Angela Merkel, was in the minority after the German chancellor failed to form a coalition with other opposition parties.

In the US today, a shorter working day after Thanksgiving and in view of "Black Friday", when the Christmas sales period starts, and in retail trade huge discounts.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of important macro data from the US, when at 14:45 (GMT) the indexes of business activity in various sectors of the US economy for November will be published, as well as the composite PMI index. The growth of indicators with values above 50 is expected, which is seen as evidence of economic growth.

If the indices are above the forecast values, the dollar will continue to recover. In the second half of the US trading session, the activity of traders will decline, and the volume of trading will be insignificant.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are on the buyers side. Positive dynamics persists. Nevertheless, the likelihood of a downward correction is also high, if strong macro data comes from the US (at 14:45 GMT).

Support levels: 1.1848, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285

Resistance levels: 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1840. Stop-Loss 1.1885. Take-Profit 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285

Buy Stop 1.1885. Stop-Loss 1.1840. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

Brent: on the eve of the OPEC meeting

27/11/2017

Current dynamics

The large-scale weakening of the dollar is reflected not only in the financial markets, but also in the commodity market, including the oil market.

Oil prices have been rising for the fifth consecutive month. During today's Asian session, the price of Brent crude slightly decreased. Futures for Brent crude fell down in price by 0.02%, to 63.85 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to $ 63.20 per barrel, which is about 0.14 dollars lower than the opening price of today's trading day.

Nevertheless, the positive dynamics persists. This week the market will wait for the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the further fate of the production reduction deal.

The meeting of OPEC and a number of countries outside the cartel, including Russia, will be held on Thursday in Vienna. Participants will hope for an extension of the agreements to reduce oil production to the end of 2018.

If there is no extension of the deal, then this can alert investors, and the prices in this case may drop sharply.

In the event of a positive outcome of the meeting and the extension of the deal, prices may soon overcome the $ 65.00 mark and go up to the area of $ 70.

As the oil minister of the UAE said earlier this month, "there is the potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the excess in the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement", the minister added.

Saudi Arabia is extremely interested in higher world oil prices for a more profitable IPO of state-owned company Saudi Aramco, which is the largest oil company in the world.

An upward trend in oil prices may also be linked to the risks of a possible production disruption in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

Nevertheless, the negative impact on prices will be provided by the growing production of shale oil in the US, which will create a new inflow of oil to the market.

After a decline in recent months due to hurricanes over the US, the number of oil rigs in the US increased by nine units last week to 747 units, according to Baker Hughes. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units). So, American oil companies still have a significant prospect for growth and increase in production. This will become one of the main negative factors. However, further price increases, perhaps, can not be avoided if the agreement to reduce production on Thursday will be extended.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


So far, a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force, and long positions are preferred.

Support levels: 62.90, 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00

Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00


Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 62.80. Stop-Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00

Buy Stop 63.60. Stop-Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

USD/JPY: The dollar is trying to recover

28/11/2017

Current dynamics

"I think that the agreement (between the government and the Bank of Japan on the target inflation rate of 2%) remains in force, and I do not see any need to change anything", Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said today in a speech to members of the parliamentary committee. "I expect that the Bank of Japan will adhere to the mitigation policy in order to achieve the target level of inflation", he said. At the meeting of the same parliamentary committee, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda spoke in support of the current soft monetary policy.

These statements were made at a time when market participants expect that the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest-rate targets in the near future to ease the collateral effect of the aggressive easing of monetary policy.

This has become one of the factors of strengthening the yen, including against the dollar, this month.

Expectations for changes in the direction of extra soft policy of the Bank of Japan stopped this month the growth of the Japanese stock index Nikkei Stock Average. This year, the Nikkei index grew by 18%, with almost the growth coming in the period after the beginning of September. Nikkei Stock Average reached a peak this month near the mark of 23400.00 amid the strengthening of shares of export-oriented companies and the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party in the parliamentary elections held in Japan last month. Nikkei Stock Average set a record for the duration of continuous growth (8 consecutive weeks). However, the index subsequently declined amid expectations of a change in the policy of quantitative and qualitative easing by the Bank of Japan and the strengthening of the yen, while other major central world banks made statements that showed the possibility of a gradual tightening of their monetary policies.

Stopping the growth of the Japanese stock market, apparently, has alarmed the monetary authorities of Japan. And today Abe and Kuroda tried to dispel doubts of investors in the commitment of the Bank of Japan to the former soft policy.

The next meeting of the Bank of Japan, dedicated to monetary policy, will be held on December 21. Last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen a year, and the head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful easing in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and " take additional mitigation measures, if necessary ".

At the same time, the dollar is now recovering in the foreign exchange market and continues to grow during the European session, interrupting the drop observed within 4 days after the publication of the minutes from the November meeting of the Fed.

On Monday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, spoke in favor of raising rates "in the near future", in part because of concerns over the economy's overheating.

Today, the dollar also was supported by the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, who said that the economy is close to achieving full employment. Dudley reiterated his view that low inflation with low unemployment - "not really bad" and expressed support for a gradual rate hike.

Investors are waiting for Jerome Powell's speech in the Senate today. "We expect that interest rates will grow a little more, and the amount of the balance will gradually decrease", says the text of his speech, which will begin at 14:44 (GMT).

It is likely that Powell will support the Fed's plan to further raise the rate, which will provide short-term (1-2 days) support to the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 110.80, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

Levels of resistance: 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00



Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop Loss 110.70. Take-Profit 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40

Sell Stop 110.70. Stop Loss 111.70. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

DJIA: indexes updated recent absolute highs

29/11/2017

Current dynamics

After yesterday, the main US stock indexes updated the absolute highs, today the indices are traded in a narrow range, maintaining a positive momentum.

It is likely that the news that North Korea has launched another ballistic missile, which, according to the leadership of North Korea, can reach any point of the United States, kept the markets from continuing growth. Experts confirmed that the launched missile had a higher trajectory. This launch may once again intensify tensions in the region and worsen the country's relations with the United States.

So far, investors' reaction to this news has been rather low-key. It is likely that they are waiting for a reaction from the administration of the US President. If aggressive statements follow, investors can again begin to withdraw funds into safe assets and sell some of the high-risk assets of the stock market. The tougher the statements from the US president, the stronger the stock markets can "shake".

If the reaction from the administration of the US president does not follow, then the growth in US stock exchanges will continue.

Investors continue to analyze positive economic data from the US, as well as information that the US Senate Budget Committee voted on Tuesday to adopt a tax bill proposed by Republicans.

Now we can assume that the bill will be approved on Thursday, when it will be put to the vote in the Senate. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill.

At the same time, investors drew attention to the positive macro data received from the US on Tuesday. The index of consumer confidence in the US (according to the Conference Board version) rose in November to a new high for 17 years and amounted to 129.5 against 126.2 in October. The national housing price index in the USA increased by 6.2% in September (against + 5.9% in August) compared to the same period of the previous year, showing the fastest annual growth since June 2014. The growth of the production index (according to the Fed-Richmond data) was 30 in November (against 12 in October), the highest level since 1993.

The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.338% from 1.328% on Monday.

As a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said yesterday during a hearing in the banking committee of the Senate, the Fed may move toward "normalizing interest rates". In his opinion, "if to wait too long for an increase in rates, the economy may overheat". Powell also suggested that US GDP growth in 2018 will be 2% -2.5%, and the unemployment rate will drop below 4%.

The data show that the growth of the US economy is accelerating towards the end of the year. Now investors are trying to understand how aggressively the Federal Reserve will be able to raise rates in the next year. The higher cost of borrowing makes the dollar and US assets more attractive for purchases.

Today, again, the rapid growth of volatility in the financial markets is expected during the American session, when important macro statistics from the United States begin to arrive, and Fed Chairman Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT) and FOMC member San Francisco FRB John Williams (at 17:45) start speeches.

If the data presented (GDP for the 3rd quarter (preliminary release), as well as the inflation index of spending on personal consumption of Americans) coincides with positive forecasts or will be stronger (3.2% GDP is expected to grow against 3.0% in the second quarter), then the dollar and US stock indices will react with growth.

At 19:00 (GMT) "Beige Book" with an economic review of the Fed the current situation in the US economy will be published.

The US stock market is expected to retain positive dynamics in the short term, if unexpected extraordinary events of a geopolitical scale do not follow.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0

Resistance levels: 23900.0



Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 23780.0. Take-Profit 23900.0, 24000.0, 24100.0

Sell Stop 23780.0. Stop-Loss 23910.0. Take-Profit 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[TifiaFX]

EUR/USD: amid positive US macro data

30/11/2017

Current dynamics

According to the US Department of Commerce, the gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of the production of goods and services in the economy, increased by 3.3% per annum in the third quarter (the forecast was + 3.0% and + 3.1% quarter).

This growth was the strongest in three years.

Federal Reserve manager Jerome Powell, who was nominated by US President Donald Trump as chairman to replace Janet Yellen, said on Tuesday at a Senate hearing that he expects GDP growth in 2017 to be 2.5%.

The yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, after the release of data on US GDP on Wednesday rose to 2.385% from the level of 2.338% recorded on Tuesday.

"I believe that there are conditions for raising interest rates at the next meeting", Powell told lawmakers. The next meeting of the Fed is scheduled for December 12-13. Almost with 100% certainty, investors expect an increase in the key rate in December by 0.25%, which is currently in the range of 1% -1.25%.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FOMC member John Williams on Wednesday also called for higher rates.

"As long as the data continues to indicate stable growth, and we see such an increase in inflation as we expect, we, in my personal view, should continue to slowly increase interest rates next year. If we do not return interest rates to more normal levels, we risk undermining steady growth and create conditions that could lead to a recession in the future", he said.

In a report published on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve System, known as the "Beige Book", it is said that economic activity in the country has increased "from modest to moderate" in recent weeks amid signs of rising prices and the continued strengthening of the labor market.

And yet, the dollar's growth on Wednesday turned out to be restrained, and on Thursday the dollar traded in different directions from the opening of the trading day and during the Asian session, declining against the euro and the pound. Apparently, several important factors do not allow the dollar to move into a more aggressive offensive.

Earlier in the week, the Budget Committee of the US Senate approved the republican bill of tax reform. On Thursday, a vote on this bill in the Senate should take place. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill. And yet, there is a certain share of the risk for investors who are betting on the further growth of the dollar, if the bill is not adopted today in the Senate.

Disagreements among the leaders of the Fed on the pace and need to raise rates in 2018, which became clear from the previously published protocols from the November meeting of the Fed, also impose a negative imprint on the dynamics of the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

At the beginning of the European session EUR / USD resumed its decline. This was facilitated by statistical data, published at 10:00 (GMT) and indicated that the rate of inflation in the Eurozone in November remained low.

The annual preliminary consumer price index (CPI) of the Eurozone in November is + 1.5% (against + 1.4% in October and + 1.6% according to the forecast). The unemployment data in the Eurozone, which declined to 8.8% in November (against 8.9% in the forecast and last month), slightly brighten the negative picture.

The EUR / USD could not develop the upward momentum and gain a foothold above the resistance level at 1.1875 (last month's highs). Breakdown of resistance level 1.1900 would determine its further growth.

EUR / USD broke the short-term support level 1.1837 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the 4-hour chart) and is down to support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2% corrective growth from the lows reached in March 2015 year in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900, as well as EMA144, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

The break of this level will call into question the further growth of EUR / USD, and the medium-term reduction targets will be the support levels 1.1640 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart), 1.1585 (EMA144), 1.1490 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Support levels: 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490, 1.1285

Resistance levels: 1.1837, 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1930, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430



Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1810. Stop-Loss 1.1880. Take-Profit 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490

Buy Stop 1.1880. Stop-Loss 1.1810. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com