Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "HIGH WAVE" STOPPED BULLS
12:18 25.05.2017

There are bearish patterns such are a "Tower" and a "Shooting Star", which both have been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there'll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

We've got a bearish "High Wave" pattern, which has strong confirmation. In this case, the price is likely going to decline in the direction of the last low in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_"high_wave"_stopped_bulls_1255

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BEARISH "SHOOTING STAR"
12:21 25.05.2017

The 55 Moving Average is acting as resistance, so we've got a "Doji" and an "Engulfing" at the local high. However, these patterns haven't been confirmed enough, so the pair is likely going to test the 55 Moving Average once again. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will have a chance to achieve the nearest support level.

There's a consolidation, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. The 144 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so we've got a "Shooting Star" pattern. Under these circumstances, we could keep in mind the lower "Window" as the next bearish target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bearish_"shooting_star"_1256

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: BEARS BREAKDOWN CLOUD’S SUPPORT
04:53 26.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7370, 0.7400/10; resistance – 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7440; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7370; TP2 — 0.7340.
Reason: narrowing bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are entered into the negative zone.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_bears_breakdown_cloud’s_support_1268

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: TRADES CONTINUE IN CLOUDY AREA
04:54 26.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 111.50, 111.00; resistance – 112.20/30.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 111.50; SL — 112.30; TP1 — 112.20; TP2 — 113.20.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices keep staying in the cloudy area; strong support of horizontal Kijun-sen and Senkou Span A.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_trades_continue_in_cloudy_area_1269

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 26
06:04 26.05.2017

Brent futures dropped to $51.00 from $54.65 overnight after OPEC and some non-OPEC producers agreed to extend output cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2018. Market participants expected longer and deeper cuts to curb a global oil glut. So, oil prices tumbled following the announcement. Prior they rose higher being driven by the talk around the extension of the supply cuts. This was the case of buying the rumor and selling the fact.

GBP slumped below 1.2880 from 1.3015 after a YouGov poll showed that the gap between the two major UK parties is narrowing as we approach the official date of elections – June 8 (the poll indicated that Labour Party is within 5 points of Theresa May’s Conservatives). Further on, we expect a move towards 1.2830 on the GBP/USD technical chart. A break of the following level may send prices lower towards 1.2775.

Aussie was trading lower at 0.7428 because of the strengthening USD and falling iron ore prices. AUD/USD will likely consolidate within the range of 0.7380- 0.7480 in the short-term.

The yen managed to find some strength today despite the strong USD. Japan’s headline inflation release in Tokyo morning was in line with expectations. Core figures hit its best level since April 2015. But Japanese core-core inflation is still subdued (it is at zero % level now). The BOJ pledged to keep its current accommodative policy until inflation figures hit 2%. USD/JPY is trading at 111.45 The yen has a scope of extension of its gains toward 110.20. On the upside, we see a strong resistance at 112.50 (near 100-day MA).

EUR/USD is trading lower in the Asian session at 1.2000 from yesterday’s high at 1.2505. The recent comments from ECB President Mario Draghi about bank’s commitment to full implementation of its QE program put pressure on the single currency. Investors were disappointed with ECB refusing to wind down its bond purchase program at previous meetings. Today’s focus will be on the US economic data –durable goods orders (expected to rise in April), Revised UoM Consumer sentiment and most importantly preliminary GDP for the first quarter of 2017.

USD/CAD spiked to 1.3495 overnight as OPEC members failed to commit to longer and deeper cuts. Brent oil futures is trading at 51.20 from yesterday’s high at $54.67 downgrading outlook for Loonie.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_26_1270

 

[riki143]

GOLD IS TRAPPED IN THE TRIANGLE
06:24 26.05.2017

Recommendations:

BUY $1262,5 SL $1252,5 TP $1315,

SELL $1248 SL $1258 TP1 $1233 TP2 $1224.

On the daily chart of gold, quotes are hovering near the upper border of the triangle. A break of the resistance and return of quotes to the upward trading channel can lead to the continuation of the rally towards $1315 per ounce (target 127.2% of the AB = CD pattern). In contrast, the return of the bullion to the long-term downward trading channel may result in the correction to the medium-term bullish trend.

On the hourly chart of gold, there is a consolidation within the triangle. A break of the resistance at $1262.5 will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally. A successful test of the support at $1248.3 is fraught with the rollback.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gold_is_trapped_in_the_triangle_1271

 

[riki143]

OIL: BULLS ARE PREPARING FOR THE ATTACK
06:26 26.05.2017

Recommendation: BUY 51.5 SL 50.5 TP1 52.8 TP2 53.9.

On the daily chart of Brent futures, "bulls" failed to overcome resistance at $54.42 per barrel. As a result, we got a rollback and formation of the short-term downward trading channel. There is a room for a decline towards $48 (the intersection of two trading channels + 61.8% of the last long-term "bullish" wave). At the same time, the odds for rebound from the $50-51.5 convergence area are quite high.

On the hourly chart of Brent oil futures, the quotes reached the support area of $50.66-51.08. At the beginning of the second decade of May, here was an accumulation of speculative longs and formation of 113% target of the "Shark" pattern. This allows bulls to recoup their losses.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/oil:_bulls_are_preparing_for_the_attack_1272

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BULLISH "TRIANGLE"
07:44 26.05.2017

The price is consolidating between resistance at 1.1267 and support at 1.1171. Also, there's a triangle, so the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.1278 - 1.1307 in the short term. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards support at 1.1204 - 1.1171.

There's a consolidation, which is taking place along the Moving Averages. So, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest resistance at 1.1287 - 1.1307 in the coming hours. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will have a chance to test the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bullish_"triangle"_1275

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: SUPPORT WAITING FOR BEARS
07:50 26.05.2017

The price faced support at 1.2865, but the market is likely going to continue falling down in the direction of the next support at 1.2843. If a pullback from this level forms afterwards, there'll be an option to have an upward price movement towards resistance at 1.2945 - 1.2964.

Bears meet support at 1.2865, so the price is consolidating. Anyway, the pair is likely going to achieve another support at 1.2843 - 1.2816 soon. If sellers are stopped here, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction in the direction of the closest resistance at 1.2926.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:__support_waiting_for_bears_1276

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUNE 2
11:58 26.05.2017

USD/JPY has posted slight gains in the first half of past week as political tumult over Trump's obstruction of justice subsided. The yen regained its momentum following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes that conveyed a less hawkish tone than traders had expected. Fed’s policymakers demanded more evidence that the recent slowdown in the US economy was temporarily before raising interest rates. On Friday, the yen has strengthened following the release of solid inflation figures out of Japan. Japan’s core consumer prices rose for a fourth month in April which it the longest rally of gains since mid-2015.

Traders will continue searching for confirmation of the Fed’s June rate hike next week. First, they will pay attention to the US consumer confidence report, US Chicago PMI and pending home sales all coming in the first half of the week. The US unemployment claims, ADP report and manufacturing figures will be awaited on Thursday. Friday will be marked with the US labor market report. From Japan, we will get jobless rate, core inflation figures and retail sales on Monday, final manufacturing PMI on Thursday and consumer confidence report on Friday. Following the US Memorial Day scheduled for the 29th of May, the investigations into Russia’s meddling into the US election and any ties with Trump campaign will probably be renewed. This might increase the demand for safe-haven yen and hurt the yen.

The current technical outlook for the USD/JPY is still neutral. The weekly moves over the past few days have been quite muted. In the short term, the prices will likely trade in the cloudy area of Ichimoku indicator on the daily chart. A break of the horizontal Senkou Span B located at 111.80 will open the way towards the resistance at 112.50. A drop below the lower border of the 110 – 113.10 consolidation range might send quotes to test lower supports at 109.60, 108.70.

https://fbs.com/img/articles/1279/1495799777-9979bfdacf87e6ddf67fc3a1764756d7_1200x1200_q90.png[/IM_G]

More:
[URL=https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_outlook_for_may_29___june_2_1279]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_outlook_for_may_29___june_2_1279[/URL]

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUNE 2
12:02 26.05.2017

The British pound dropped in the past week on UK election jitters and weak economic fundamentals. Monday’s terrorist attack in Manchester city rattled people’s confidence in the government and shrank May’s lead in the polls. British GDP for the first quarter was revised downwards to 0.2% from 0.3% back in April. UK consumer spending, the key economic growth engine, had its worst quarter since 2014. It seems that Brexit has finally started taking its toll on the British economy.

With only two weeks before the legislative elections, the pound should remain under pressure in the near-term. Next week, investors will be watching for the British manufacturing and construction PMI. If economic data continues posting weak gains, the pound will be set to test lower levels. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar will be a bellwether of the pair with the CB consumer confidence coming on Tuesday, Wednesday’s Chicago PMI followed by the US pending home sales. Thursday will be marked with ADP report, unemployment claims, and manufacturing figures. On Friday, traders will be focused on the US labor market report. Strong readings will bring hopes for an additional rate hike at the Fed’s June meeting.

The technical outlook for the GBP/USD is bearish. The pair broke the support border of the short-term upward trading channel. This was a signal of potential reversal or correction. The British pound may slide towards the nearest supports at 1.2825, 1.2750 and 1.2596. To restore the uptrend, the bulls need to break the 1.30 psychologically important round level.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd:_outlook_for_may_29___june_2_1280

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUNE 2
12:04 26.05.2017

USD/CAD was trading choppily in the course of the past week. The loonie got lots of strength in the first half of the week with the Bank of Canada being more positive on the domestic growth outlook, a less hawkish Fed’s meeting minutes and investors’ expectations of supply cuts ahead of the OPEC meeting. The Canadian dollar has given back lots of its earlier gains on Thursday as oil prices dropped after the OPEC agreed to extend production deal by an additional 9 months, but failed to provide deeper cuts. At the current moment, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3440 just a few pips below its weekly opening price.

Next week, traders will get lots of economic data from the American continent. Canada’s data agencies will release the gross domestic figures on Wednesday, trade balance and labor productivity data on Friday. The USD traders will be waiting for the CB consumer confidence report coming on Monday, Tuesday’s Chicago PMI and Friday’s labor market report from the US. The loonie’s high correlation to crude prices will make it very susceptible to the release of US oil inventories and Baker Hughes’ rigs estimate coming on Thursday and Friday respectively.

USD/CAD dropped to 1.3385 in the course of the past week. Falling oil prices helped the pair to rebound sharply to 1.3490. At the present moment, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3445. If it manages to test the lower border of the long-term trading channel located at 1.3390, we expect it slide further towards 1.3345 (100-day MA), or towards the psychologically important support at 1.3300. The nearest resistances can be found at 1.3490, 1.3545 (crossover of the 50 and 200 MAs on the H4 timeframe).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad:_outlook_for_may_29___june_2_1281

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: BEARS TRYING TO DELIVER REVERSE
12:28 26.05.2017

We've got a couple of pullbacks from 8/8 MM Level, so wave [y] of 2 may have been formed. Therefore, we could have a bearish impulse in wave (i) in the coming days. In this case, we should keep in mind 6/8 MM Level as an intraday bearish target.

8/8 MM Level is acting as resistance. However, there's an opportunity to have wave ii a little bit bigger, so the last local high is likely going to be broken shortly. Meanwhile, if the price fixates below 8/8 MM Level afterwards, bears will probably try to deliver wave iii of (i).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_bears_trying_to_deliver_reverse_1282

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: PRICE GOING TO GET SUPPORT ON MA
13:04 26.05.2017

There's a correction, which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Also, we've got a developing a "Three Methods" pattern, so the market is likely going to continue moving down towards the Moving Averages.

We've got a "Shooting Star", which has been confirmed. Therefore, the 34 Moving Average is likely going to act as resistance. If a pullback from this line happens, bears will have an opportunity to reach the nearest support level.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd:_price_going_to_get_support_on_ma_1283

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: BULLISH "HAMMER"
13:06 26.05.2017

There are a "Doji" and an "Engulfing", which both have been confirmed. In this case, the price is likely going to get resistance in the middle of the last huge black candle. If a pullback from this level arrives afterwards, there'll be an option to have another bearish price movement.

The 89 & 144 Moving Averages have acted as resistance, so we've got an "Inverted Hammer". Therefore, we're likely going to have an upward correction, but bears are still nearby, so there's a chance to have a new local low afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_bullish_"hammer"_1284

 

[riki143]

GBP/NZD BROKE DAILY UP CHANNEL
13:19 26.05.2017

GBP/NZD broke daily up channel
Next sell target - 1.8000
GBP/NZD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from the start of February (which has enclosed the (C)-wave of the previous ABC correction ? from the middle of October). The breakout of this up channel accelerated the active impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary impulse wave ?, which started earlier from the resistance level 1.9000 (previous buy target).

GBP/NZD is expected to fall to the next sell target at the round support level 1.8000. Strong resistance remains at 1.9000.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_nzd_broke_daily_up_channel_1285

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP REACHED BUY TARGET 0.8700
13:21 26.05.2017

EUR/GBP reached buy target 0.8700
Next buy target - 0.8800
EUR/GBP continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 0.8700 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from the middle of January. The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave (iii).

EUR/GBP is expected to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.8800 (top of the previous (b)-wave from the middle of March).

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_gbp_reached_buy_target_0.8700_1286

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: BEARS READY TO CONTINUE SALES
05:32 29.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7370, 0.7400/10; resistance – 0.7440.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 0.7440; SL — 0.7460; TP1 — 0.7370; TP2 — 0.7340.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are under the Cloud.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd:_bears_ready_to_continue_sales_1293

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: DOLLAR STUCK IN THE CLOUDS
05:39 29.05.2017

Technical levels: support – 111.00; resistance – 112.20/30.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 111.50; SL — 112.30; TP1 — 112.20; TP2 — 113.20.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a new weak dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the SSA.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy:_dollar_stuck_in_the_clouds_1295

 

[riki143]

MORNING BRIEF FOR MAY 29
06:16 29.05.2017

The start of this week was really quiet with the UK, the US observing Memorial Day and China celebrating Dragon Boat Festival.

The British pound slumped to 1.2775 on Friday after YouGov poll suggested the UK election race was getting tighter with Theresa May’s party lead over her Labour counterparts to just 5 points. GBP will likely remain under pressure throughout this week as Sunday’s opinion poll appear to confirm the decline of Conservative support. A poll for the Sunday Telegraph showed Labour party regaining its support lacking just 6 points to catch up with the Conservative party. While the conservative win is still the most probable outcome in June 8 election, recent polls raised concerns over the possibility of a smaller working majority for Tories or even a hung parliament.

The US dollar regained its strength on Friday after the Commerce Department upgraded its first quarter GDP estimate and after Fed of San Francisco President John Williams said that the US economy is strong enough for three-four rate hikes this year. The possibility of President Trump being impeached is low. US domestic intelligence and security service is now investigating into the ties of Trump’s son law Jared Kushner with Russian authorities.

Trump’s finally back home after his 9-day foreign trip. Trump’s first foray on the international stage saw him engaged in multiple negotiations in which he touched on many global issues. He visited Saudi Arabia, Israel, met with the Pope Francis, discussed security issues with NATO members and participated in G7 summit in Taormina, Sicily. The later one ended up with the most developed countries failing to agree on a common stance on climate change or trade (because of Trump of course).

USD/JPY is trading a little bit higher in today’s session at around 111.30 from Friday’s low at 111.20. The yen didn’t show any reaction to North Korea’s missile launch. It seems that market already used to this sort of occasions. The pair has room for extension towards the solid resistance towards 111.80 – the horizontal Senkou B span (the upper border of Ichimoku Kumo).

EUR/USD declined to 1.1170 in the Asian session from Friday’s high at 1.1235. The single currency soared to 1.268 last week following the fortunate election outcome but failed to make any further gains. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is speaking today at 4:00 PM MT time. He will likely be asked about his plans for stimulus withdrawal (QE taper). If Draghi still points to still low inflation figures, the euro will be hurt. The euro area data that came in recent weeks is very strong, The disconnect between accelerating growth in the Eurozone and sluggish inflation is a puzzle that should be unraveled by the ECB officials before they meet to decide on their monetary policy stance on June 8.

The NZD was the major performer on Friday. It spiked almost to 0.7080. In today’s Tokyo session, it was trading at 0.7060 level.

USD/CAD ticked up to 1. 3460 from Friday’s low of 1.3430 as oil crude futures slipped some points in the Asian session. Oil prices suffered significant losses last week after an OPEC-led decision to curb oil supply didn’t go as far as many investors projected.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/morning_brief_for_may_29__1297