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Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

USD/CAD: bears notices shark
2/24/2017

On the USD/CAD daily chart, bulls failed to test the resistance at 1.3175. It is not possible to talk about the realization of the Wolf waves. Perhaps a new attempt will be more successful than the previous one. Meanwhile, there is a growing risk of another movement towards the lower border of the long-term upward trading channel.

Screenshot_2017_02_24_08_36_25.png


On the USD/CAD hourly chart, a breakout of the resistance at 1.312 will lead to the return of the quotes within the boundaries of the previous upward trading channel. Alternatively, a drop below support at 1.308 will contribute to the implementation of the target 88.6% in the AB = CD pattern.

Screenshot_2017_02_24_08_36_42.png


Recommendations:

BUY 1,312 SL 1,3065 TP 1,322,

BUY 1,303 SL 1,2975 TP 1,316.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12624
 
AUD/USD: aussie under main resistance
2/24/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7690, 0.7600; resistance – 0.7720/30.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7730; SL — 0.7750; TP1 — 0.7600; TP2 — 0.7560.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and rising Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the prices are under the daily resistance and overbought market.

03-audusdh4(82).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12626
 
USD/JPY: Dollar going lower
2/24/2017

Technical levels: support – 112.70, 112.20; resistance – 113.00, 113.60.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 113.00; SL — 113.20; TP1 — 112.20; TP2 — 112.00.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are formed a new local lows.

04-usdjpyh4(79).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12627
 
Key option levels for Friday, February 24th
2/24/2017

EUR/USD

EURUSD(133).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 19 569 ? + 21 393 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0602; 1.0618; 1.0642; 1.0673
Closest support levels 1.0578; 1.0555; 1.0537; 1.0510
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0578, with target points at 1.0555 and 1.0537
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0602 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0618 and 1.0642
USD/JPY

USDJPY(100).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 616 ? + 1 038 ?
Closest resistance levels 112.74; 113.01; 113.22; 113.55
Closest support levels 112.60; 112.38; 112.16; 111.84
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 112.74, with target points at 113.01 and 113.22
Alternative scenario Moving below 112.60 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 112.38 and 112.16
USD/CAD

USDCAD(114).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 105 ? + 205 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3111; 1.3129; 1.3154; 1.3200
Closest support levels 1.3070; 1.3029; 1.2970; 1.2898
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3111, with the target points at 1.3129 and 1.3154
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3070 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3029 and 1.2970
More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12628
 
EUR/USD: bulls going to test Moving Averages
2/24/2017

24-2-2017-EUR-H4.png


We’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the price reached a resistance at 1.0588. At the same time, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.0619 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.0552 – 1.0506.

24-2-2017-EUR-H1.png


Bulls faced a resistance on the 89 Moving Average, so the price is consolidating. Also, there’s a possible “Pennant”, so the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.0607 – 1.0619. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.0560 – 1.0552.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12629
 
GBP/USD: broken "Triangle"
2/24/2017

24-2-2017-GBP-H4.png


All Moving Averages have been broken, so the price faced a resistance at 1.2548, which led to the current consolidation. Meanwhile, there’s an opportunity to have an upward movement towards the next resistance at 1.2581 – 1.2630. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.2548 – 1.2509.

24-2-2017-GBP-H1.png


There’s a “Pennant”, so bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.2481 – 1.2599 during the day. At the same time, if a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an option to have a decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.2548.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12630
 
GBP/USD: outlook for Feb.27- March 3
2/24/2017

Results of the past week:

GBP/USD spiked to 1.2560 in the course of the past week after Fed’s senior officials toned down expectation of a March hike and the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin failed to provide substantial details on the upcoming tax reforms. The economic calendar for GBP was light this week with UK fourth quarter GDP data being revised up to 0.7% and inflation report hearings hardly bringing any news.

With no significant fundamentals on the docket the pound has strengthened mainly due to the US dollar weakness.

Upcoming events:

Next week, the FOMC voting and non-voting members will be extremely talkative. Don’t miss Dallas President Robert Kaplan speaking on Monday and Wednesday, Fed’s Governor Lael Brainard – on Thursday, and Evans, Powell, Fischer and, most importantly Fed’s Chair Yellen all giving their comments on Friday. As you struggle to unravel the effect of their speeches, you might consider looking at the chart below exhibiting for hawks and doves at the FOMC.

%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%B41(9).JPG


Another focus will on the UK manufacturing and construction PMI indexes, US preliminary GDP, CB consumer confidence index and ISM non-manufacturing and manufacturing PMI.

With strong economic data and insufficient hawkishness of the FOMC members, the sterling may well extend its gains next week. A decision of the Scottish government to hold another referendum on the Scottish Independence from the UK might clip the pound’s wings and send it into the negative territory.

Technical picture:

From a technical point of view, an advance above the resistances at 1.2580/1.2620 levels, should favor additional gains up to 1.2705 (February high). On the downside, there are some supports located at 1.2400 (100-day MA) and 1.2380 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe) that can be tested in case of the breakout of 1.2475 level.

GBPUSDDaily(35).png


Outlook:

The GBP/USD outlook for the present moment is neutral with immediate pressure on the upside in case of the breakout of 1.2580/1.2620 resistances, and possible rollback in case of a move below 1.2470.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12631
 
cAUD/USD: outlook for Feb.27 - March 2
2/24/2017
Results of the past week:

Aussie has been one of the greatest beneficiaries of the recent USD selling, popping up above 0.7700. In the beginning of the past week, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe highlighted the bank’s unwillingness to cut rates. He also said that RBA is not going to push harder on reducing unemployment and getting inflation rates back into the targeted band. In his Friday’s testimony before the House Economics Committee, he said nothing that could surprise the markets. On the commodity front, iron ore, copper, coking coal and steel prices extended their recent gains offering additional stimulus to AUD.

Upcoming events:

Next week we would recommend you to focus on the Australian current account and trade balance data, quarterly GDP and building approvals updates. Pay closer attention to the highlights of the FOMC members speeches, US manufacturing data, CB consumer confidence report and core PCE index.

Aussie may rise higher against its US counterpart if US policymakers refuse to give more details on the tax policies, while Fed’s officials keep repeating their favorite “a rate hike will be delivered fairly soon” instead of actually providing it.

Technical picture:

AUD/USD may extend its gains in the upcoming week. But there could be a corrective movement since present upward movement is lacking momentum. The closing of the today’s NY session could give us some signs of further path of the pair. A close above 0.7700 level would make us believe in the continuation of the rally towards the nearest resistance levels at 0.7740 (February 23 high), 0.7780 (November 8, 2016 high). If quotes fail to hold their current position, wait for the corrective movement towards the supports at 0.7670 (near 100-H4 MA and lower border of Ichimoku cloud), 0.7610.

AUDUSDDaily(28).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12633
 
US dollar: ourlook for Feb. 27 - Mar. 3
2/24/2017

Fundamentals: The main disappointing factor for the American currency was the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. Many traders expected the minutes to turn out hawkish, because the recent comments of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen were hawkish. However, the central bank’s statement released on Feb. 1 right after the meeting was dovish, and the minutes echoed this dovishness. No wonder that the USD got hit. In addition, the new US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that that any policy steps the Trump administration takes would likely have a limited impact this year. As a result, the bullish impulse provided by Trump’s pledge to unveil “phenomenal” tax plan evaporated.

Upcoming events: US economic calendar includes some important data releases (durable goods orders, pending home sales, prelim GDP Chicago PMI, CB consumer confidence, core PCE price index, ISM manufacturing & services PMIs) as well as the many speeches of the FOMC members (doves Evans, Brainard and Yellen, hawk Fischer and Kaplan and Powell who are in between). The PCE inflation data released on Wednesday is the key release to watch.

Technical picture: US dollar index made another top near 101.70. The upside was once again limited by the 50-day MA at 101.35. The currency now looks vulnerable for decline to 100.40 (last week’s low, 100-day MA) and 100.00 (psychological level).

Outlook: Comments from the Fed may clarify the picture somewhat, but given the lack of action from Trump on fiscal stimulus, central bank officials will likely sound cautious. Thus, the bearish turn of events is more likely.

USD_index(23).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12636
 
EUR/USD: ourlook for Feb. 27 - Mar. 3
2/24/2017

Fundamentals: It was an eventful week for the euro with a significant decline first and the moderate recovery later. The euro keeps feeling negative pressure from the fears about anti-European Union rhetoric from Marine Le Pen ahead of the first round of French elections in April. In addition, the debate about Greek debt relief has once again resurfaced adding to the market’s concerns. The euro area’s preliminary PMI data for both manufacturing and services sectors rose to new cyclical highs but failed to provide support for the single currency. The main thing that let EUR/USD turn upwards was the weakness of the US dollar.

Upcoming events: There will be some European economic releases to pay attention to in the coming days: German retail sales and preliminary CPI, as well as CPI and retail sales for the entire currency union.

Technical picture: EUR/USD tested 1.0490, but, as we expected, the area of 1.0500 provided support. Since then the euro managed to recover forming a bullish pattern. Potential targets lie at 1.0620/30. Further resistance levels lie at 1.0660 and 1.0700. Support is at 1.0570 and 1.0530.

Outlook: If the region’s inflation figures surprise to the upside and the Fed officials cool down the rate hike prospects, the euro will have a chance to strengthen further. Beware, however, of political risks that can make the single currency once again go for support. Trade with stops!

EURUSDH4(50).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12637
 
USD/JPY: ourlook for Feb. 27 - Mar. 3
2/24/2017

Fundamentals: Japan’s trade surplus narrowed in January, but February flash manufacturing PMI was very encouraging. All in all, news from Japan have a minor impact on the market. Risk sentiment should remain the primary driver of USD/JPY.

Upcoming events: In the coming days, Japan will release information on industrial production, retail sales, housing starts, household spending and consumer prices.

Technical picture: USD/JPY formed a lower interim top just below 113.80. In fact, this top consists of 2 highs, and the second one is lower than the first. Below Feb. 12 low at 112.60 the pair is extremely vulnerable to a decline to 111.70/60 (100-day MA, top of the weekly Ichimoku, February lows, 38.2% Fibo of September-December advance). A decline below this are will open the way for a deeper fall towards 110.00. Resistance is at 113.00, 113.20 and 114.00.

Outlook: Taking into account the European political uncertainty, event risk points at potentially higher Japanese yen. As a result, the bearish scenario is more likely, so we favor USD/JPY shorts.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12638
 
Key option levels for Monday, February 27th
2/25/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) *

EUR/USD

EURUSD(134).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest -?- -?-
Closest resistance levels 1.0570; 1.0590; 1.0606; 1.0631
Closest support levels 1.0538; 1.0513; 1.0479; 1.0439
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0570, with target points at 1.0590 and 1.0606
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0538 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0513 and 1.0479

GBP/USD

GBPUSD(106).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest -?- -?-
Closest resistance levels 1.2473; 1.2494; 1.2513; 1.2539
Closest support levels 1.2448; 1.2422; 1.2398; 1.2367
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2448, with the target points at 1.2422 and 1.2398
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2473 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2494 and 1.2513

USD/JPY

USDJPY(102).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest -?- -?-
Closest resistance levels 112.23; 112.46; 112.79; 113.22
Closest support levels 111.93; 111.71; 111.51; 111.21
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY above 112.23, with target points at 112.46 and 112.79
Alternative scenario Moving below 111.93 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 111.71 and 111.51

USD/CAD

USDCAD(115).png



Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest -?- -?-
Closest resistance levels 1.3113; 1.3141; 1.3189; 1.3257
Closest support levels 1.3086; 1.3067; 1.3028; 1.2970
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3113, with the target points at 1.3141 and 1.3189
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3086 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3067 and 1.3028

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12639
 
Morning brief for February 27
02/27/2017

A bit drowsy trading session with the US dollar grinding modest gains despite a slight drop in Treasury yields and a rather low probability of March rate hike (40% using Fed Funds and 47.8% using OIS). Markets are calling the recent Ms. Yellen’s comments on the introduction of hike “fairly soon” a bluff, not expecting much from the Fed’s March meeting. New Treasury Secretary with unspeakable last name Mnuchin (see smth funny on CNN) said in an interview broadcast on Sunday that Donald Trump will address to Congress on Tuesday to preview some elements of his sweeping plans to cut taxes for the middle class, simplify the tax system, and to make American companies more competitive worldwide. Some strategists believe, that Trump will be long on rhetoric and short on detail. Stock market having risen on the anticipation of Trump’s cut tax plans, may start bleeding if it doesn’t receive substantive details about the plan in Tuesday’s speech of the US President.

Today’s focus will on the US data, namely, durable goods and pending home sales. Market majors expect really strong headlines that should be supportive for the USD (durable goods orders will likely increase due to new aircraft orders). The euro outlook remains very volatile driven by swings and dips in French pre-election polls. The risks of winning of anti-EU Marin Le Pen are still high. EUR/USD is currently trading above 1.0565 waiting for thunderbolts to instigate the quotes’ pace.

USD/JPY was a great mover in the course of the past session having slide under 112. On Monday’s morning, the US dollar managed to regain its strength and rose to 112.20.

The British pound was Friday’s and Monday’s underperformer. It slumped to 1.2400 on the talks that Scottish parliament is preparing a new independence referendum. For the present moment, a recovery of the GBP/USD is ruled out. The pair will likely slide below 1.2380 level on the subsequent session especially if the US economic data is strong.

AUD/USD made some gains on the session having advanced to 0.7685 (still below the 0.7700 level) thanks to upbeat company operating profits release. Kiwi ticked a bit higher in the Asian session having risen to 0.7200.

USD/CAD slid to 1.3050 on Friday but climbed to 1.3100 earlier today feeding on the surging oil prices. The key focus of this week – the BoC rate statement to be delivered on Wednesday. The Canadian central bank is expected to leave it policy stance and outlook unchanged, leaving Loonie at the mercy of global factors (risk sentiment and commodity prices).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12641
 
USD/JPY: do bears still have strength?
02/27/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, the bears are making great efforts to push the quotes below support at 111.15-111.25. If they succeed, it will lead to the continuation of the downward movement towards 107.65 (Target 200% pattern AB = CD). The bulls rekindle dreams of the restoration of the long-term uptrend. To fulfill their dreams, they need to test the diagonal support in the form of the upper boundary of the descending trading channel.

Screenshot_2017_02_27_08_32_45.png


On the USD/JPY hourly chart, prices reached the convergence zone. There are the targets in the Shark and AB = CD pattern. There is a great chance for the rebound from the current levels.

Screenshot_2017_02_27_08_32_58.png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12642
 
NZD/USD: armistice won't last long
02/27/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, a struggle between bulls and bears ended with the armistice. As a result, the consolidation range 0.7135-0.724 has been formed. A breakout of its upper border will create the prerequisites for the restoration of the long-term uptrend. A successful test of the support can lead to the rollback in the direction of 0.7.

Screenshot_2017_02_27_08_33_10.png


On the NZD/USD hourly chart, "bulls" are preparing to test resistance at 0.724.If they test it successfully, the Shark and AB = CD patterns with 0.731 and 0.735 targets will be activated.

Screenshot_2017_02_27_08_33_31.png


Recommendation:

BUY 0,724 SL 0,7185 TP 0,735,

SELL 0,7135 SL 0,72 TP 0,7.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12643
 
GBP/USD: pound in negative area again
02/27/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2400/20, 1.2350; resistance – 1.2480/90, 1.2560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2405; SL — 1.2385; TP1 — 1.2480; TP2 — 1.2560.

2. Sell — 1.2380; SL — 1.2400; TP1 — 1.2310; TP2 — 1.2250.

Reason: narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud, rising Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the Cloud.

02-gbpusdh4(74).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12644
 
AUD/USD: aussie trying to grow, but can’t
02/27/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7680, 0.7600; resistance – 0.7720/30.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7690; SL — 0.7710; TP1 — 0.7600; TP2 — 0.7560.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud and horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the channel Tenkan-Kijun is narrow; prices are under the daily resistance and overbought market.

03-audusdh4(83).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12645
 
EUR/USD: bulls going to test resistance
02/27/2017

27-2-2017-EUR-H4.png


There’s a “V-Top”, so the price reached a support at 1.0552, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support on the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

27-2-2017-EUR-H1.png


The price faced a support at 1.0552, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern. In this case, the market is likely going to test the closest resistance at 1.0607 – 1.0619 during the day. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.0537 – 1.0530.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12647
 
New agreement on Greece’s bailout: achievable, but hurdles remain
02/27/2017

Last Monday, market participants were glad to hear that there might be a happy end to the long-drawn Greek drama. After talks with creditors, Greece’s government agreed to legislate structural reforms demanded by the IMF. The reforms will be acting as reassurance for the IMF that Greece can meet the euro area’s budget surplus target of 3.5% of GDP before accounting of interest payments. In addition, the IMF demanded to write off a substantial share of the Greek debt as a condition to its participation in the country’s bailout. That’s what constitutes the main hurdle for the talks for the present moment. Many Eurozone creditors (Germany in particular) flatly refuse to provide Greece with additional debt relief saying that it would be unfair with regard to other Eurozone members struggling with the same economic problems.

%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%B7_%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F.jpg


Source: Reuters

Spahn, Germany's deputy finance minister, said that Greece’s problem is a lack of growth rather than debt; giving Greek authorities substantial debt relief would upset other Eurozone country such as Spain which has to deliver tough reforms to counter its economic problems. Spahn expressed his hope that negotiators manage to keep the IMF on board in Greece’s bailout without demanded “haircut.” Otherwise, the overall program would end, and Greece won’t get a new bailout. And this would constitute a substantial fracture in the Eurozone system and stiff headwind for the euro.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12649
 
GBP/USD: price going to move in a flat range
02/27/2017

27-2-2017-GBP-H4.png


There’s a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed. However, the price reached a support at 1.2386, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom”. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test a resistance on the 34 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to have a decline towards a support at 1.2386 – 1.2347.

27-2-2017-GBP-H1.png


The pair faced a support at 1.2386, which led to form a “V-Bottom”, so the price is consolidating. In this case, the market is likely going to test the next resistance at 1.2481 – 1.2506. At the same time, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.2386 – 1.2347 later on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12648
 
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