AUDUSD Analysis and Forecast

[jackcm]

Today, volatility is quite low. US ISM Non-manufacturing PMI was 56, better than expected 53, but it almost made no harm to AUDUSD as market is waiting for more important event which will be released tomorrow, RBA interest rate decision.

Interest rate is expected to decrease from 2.75% to 2.5%. Fundamentally, it means AUD bearish. However, I think we mayn't know what would exactly happen because AUDUSD could rise up to 0.9000 before continuing downtrend.

As we can see in daily chart, the bears still prevail since momentum is too weak and downtrend may continue. Daily pivot point is 0.8913 where AUDUSD is now trading around. AUDUSD successfully broke 0.8857 (S1) but stopped at 0.8847. Therefore, if it break below 0.8814 (S2), this could open door to 0.8758 (S3) and psychology level 0.87 in extension. On the upside, resistance can be found at psychology level 0.9000, then 0.9042 (Fibo 38.2) and 0.9136 (Fibo 61.8)

 

[jackcm]

Since RBA decided to cut rate, AUDUSD has changed +0.63%. It was topped at 0.9004, then back to 0.8947 and it is now trading around 0.897.

Looking at 4-Hours chart, you can see that uptrend might keep going as RSI is moving too far from average. Additionally, daily pivot 0.8903 while it is trading above 0.8958 (R1). Therefore, upside still prevails, at least in short-term.

On the upside, one more break above psychology level 0.9000 could open door to 0.9042 and 0.9136 in extension. On the downside, below 0.894 has support at 0.8905 (daily low).

There is still one more important data which will be released on Thursday, employment data. In my opinion, everything would be clear after Thursday and AUDUSD would start its real trend.

 

[jackcm]

08 - 08 - 2013 Analysis

It seems there is nothing to stop its rally. Interest rate decreased and job cut can't stop Aussie from rising. AUDUSD rally is also caused by USD weakness.

In daily chart, AUDUSD touched middle band (Bollinger Band 20-days), MACD and Momentum also reached the their average levels. Therefore, if it closes above 0.911 today, there could be more chances for it to move further.

On the upside, key resistance could be 0.9136 and it is testing. If it is broken, AUDUSD could rally up to psychology level 0.9200. On the downside, support could be found at 0.9024 (yesterday high) - 0.8905 (low Aug 6th).

 

[jackcm]

10.10.13 - Analysis and Forecast

It seems no changes after mix data, employment rate decreases by 0.2%, better than expected, but only 9,100 jobs were added, missed forecast 15,000 jobs. AUDUSD declined to daily low 0.9389 but then backed to 0.9432

Market momentum appears to be fine through MACD and RSI.

On the upside, resistance is around psychology level 0.9500 and 0.9529 (high of 18th Sep 2013). A close above 0.9529 would open door to 0.9600.

There is less likely that it will decline; however, AUDUSD may be well-defended by SMA 21-days and hence a close below that level will lead to 0.9300 and 0.9200 (strong support).

 

[jackcm]

10.15.13 - Analysis and Forecast

RBA stays neutral on interest rate according to the meeting minutes which was released today. Here are what we should notice:

Members noted two developments over the past month, namely the appreciation of the exchange rate and the pick-up in measures of both consumer and business confidence over recent weeks

Bank should again neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further nor signal an imminent intention to reduce them

AUDUSD, after that, broke resistance 0.9529, and it is consolidating at daily high.

AUDUSD is supported by up-trend line, momentum is strong enough for it to head toward resistance 0.9600 (psychology level) and maybe further 0.9666 (June 13th high). I see it's not likely to move down until touching 0.9600.

 

[jackcm]

10.17.2013 - Analysis and Forecast

In my personal view, AUDUSD is the good pair to trade in this week. No matter what has been happening with USD, market is still bullish AUDUSD and that make it increase to 0.9600 without any difficulty as I see.

However, Aussie still has job to do with Chinese data which will be released tomorrow. Will it stop Aussie rally or let AUDUSD surge?

AUDUSD is trading in resistance zone 0.9600 (psychology level) - 0.9666 (June 13th high) and it may extend to 0.9762 (June 4th high) if it breaks 0.9666 levels. On the downside, support ranges between 0.9550 and 0.9600. It's likely to fall but not below 0.9550 level.

 

[jackcm]

Weekly Review

AUDUSD rally was finally capped at 0.9758 after Australian inflation data released on Wednesday was above consensus despite weak US non-farm payrolls which was out the day before as investors decided to take profit.

On the upside, resistance could be found at 0.9677 (high Oct 18th) and 0.9758 is well-defended by the bears, it is near Fibo 50% and SMA-200 days and the bears. A break above 0.9758 would open door to psychology level 0.9900.

Although AUDUSD is still hold around psychology level 0.9600, downside still prevails in short-term and it might fall to support level 0.9529 (high Sep 19th / Fibo 38.2%) next week, we can see this by looking at MACD, nearly crossing average, and Stoch, heading towards the south. It will be likely to test EMA-25 days again before moving up.