I do update intraday, 4 hour, daily elliott wave analysis and forecast for forex pairs, gold, crude oil, s&P futures and dollar index.
-
The Forex, Binary Options Forum - welcomes you to our Community!DigitalCashPalace Forum is dedicated to discussions about Forex, Binary Options, commodities, stocks related.
Please take a look around, and feel free to .
Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast (Daily Update) Forex Pairs, Gold, Oil, S&P, USD
- Thread starter ew-forecast
- Start date
S&P500 Could See 1500 Break Before Deeper Retracement
S&P 500 is trading nicely higher for the past few weeks, clearly in impulsive fashion form 1400 swing level. However market is approaching some important Fibonacci levels just above 1500 psycho level so we could see a sizable pull-back from there, but only in a corrective formation. In such case that would be wave 2) as labeled on the chart below. But before that we need to see end of red wave 1). We need to scroll to lower time frames to see the structure within wave 1).
The lower time frame chart (1h) suggests that red wave 1) is still incomplete and that market will most likely make push above this week. Notice that price slowed down in sub-wave 4; ideally forming a flat formation with nice key support area around 1490 which could give you a chance to join a larger trend. Stop-loss/critical zone is below 1475.
S&P 500 is trading nicely higher for the past few weeks, clearly in impulsive fashion form 1400 swing level. However market is approaching some important Fibonacci levels just above 1500 psycho level so we could see a sizable pull-back from there, but only in a corrective formation. In such case that would be wave 2) as labeled on the chart below. But before that we need to see end of red wave 1). We need to scroll to lower time frames to see the structure within wave 1).
The lower time frame chart (1h) suggests that red wave 1) is still incomplete and that market will most likely make push above this week. Notice that price slowed down in sub-wave 4; ideally forming a flat formation with nice key support area around 1490 which could give you a chance to join a larger trend. Stop-loss/critical zone is below 1475.
GBPUSD: Price Could Retrace To 1.5800-1.5900 Within Larger Downtrend
Pound is falling sharply for the past two weeks from 1.6180 Jan 11 swing high. Notice that decline from that high can be easily counted in five waves. That’s called an impulsive structure which represents huge red wave 3) which is part of much bigger five wave decline started back on Jan 2nd. Therefore we expect much deeper levels on cable, but not just yet. In fact, we think that before market breaks lower again we will see a corrective bounce in wave 4), ideally back to 1.5800-1.5900 range before new sell-off begins. Pair is also approaching some strong Fibo support for current third wave; its 1.618 x wave 1) measured from wave 2) high which very often reacts as a turning point at the end of a third wave. In our case that’s comes in at 1.5650. Bottom line: watch for a corrective bounce in 100-200 pips before new leg lower.
Pound is falling sharply for the past two weeks from 1.6180 Jan 11 swing high. Notice that decline from that high can be easily counted in five waves. That’s called an impulsive structure which represents huge red wave 3) which is part of much bigger five wave decline started back on Jan 2nd. Therefore we expect much deeper levels on cable, but not just yet. In fact, we think that before market breaks lower again we will see a corrective bounce in wave 4), ideally back to 1.5800-1.5900 range before new sell-off begins. Pair is also approaching some strong Fibo support for current third wave; its 1.618 x wave 1) measured from wave 2) high which very often reacts as a turning point at the end of a third wave. In our case that’s comes in at 1.5650. Bottom line: watch for a corrective bounce in 100-200 pips before new leg lower.
UPDATE II GBPUSD: Pull-back In Progress
UPDATE II GBPUSD: Pull-back In Progress
Pound is already recovering about we warned you yesterday when we highlighted a five wave fall in wave 3). Notice that current prices are already testing upper trend-line of an impulse channel. Break of this line usually confirms end of a wave 3). In our case it means that market is in a temporary recovery mode, ideally in wave 4 which will retrace back above 1.5800 possibly even to 1.5900 level in sessions ahead.
Larger trend however is still down, but we need to see a completed three wave rise in 4) before we may look for weaker GBP again.
UPDATE II GBPUSD: Pull-back In Progress
Pound is already recovering about we warned you yesterday when we highlighted a five wave fall in wave 3). Notice that current prices are already testing upper trend-line of an impulse channel. Break of this line usually confirms end of a wave 3). In our case it means that market is in a temporary recovery mode, ideally in wave 4 which will retrace back above 1.5800 possibly even to 1.5900 level in sessions ahead.
Larger trend however is still down, but we need to see a completed three wave rise in 4) before we may look for weaker GBP again.
Impulsive Wave
Impulse is the most common motive wave. Its a five wave pattern in the direction of a trend.
Impulse is the most common motive wave. Its a five wave pattern in the direction of a trend.
EURGBP Is Up More Than 5% Since Start Of the Year, But Structure Is Calling For More
EURGBP is trading sharply higher, now already up around 5.8% since start of January and it seems that current bullish trend will not end anytime soon. This traders, is the nice example of an impulsive pattern in action. We are tracking red wave 3) which is a five wave pattern; now with sub-wave 5 in progress which still has a room for a 0.8650 or even 0.8700 before we may get a larger, but still only a corrective retracement.
EURGBP is trading sharply higher, now already up around 5.8% since start of January and it seems that current bullish trend will not end anytime soon. This traders, is the nice example of an impulsive pattern in action. We are tracking red wave 3) which is a five wave pattern; now with sub-wave 5 in progress which still has a room for a 0.8650 or even 0.8700 before we may get a larger, but still only a corrective retracement.
AUDUSD Could Make A Corrective Bounce Back to 1.0465 Before Turns Bearish Again
AUDUSD reversed nicely lower yesterday and already made a new swing low, which means that pair has now five wave down from 1.0600 high, called an impulsive wave. In Elliott wave theory impulses show direction of a current trend. As such, we are ready for more aussie weakness but could see a corrective retracement back to 1.0465 before downtrend resumes. There is a Fibo zone around 1.0370 and December low just beneath it that could cause a bounce.
AUDUSD reversed nicely lower yesterday and already made a new swing low, which means that pair has now five wave down from 1.0600 high, called an impulsive wave. In Elliott wave theory impulses show direction of a current trend. As such, we are ready for more aussie weakness but could see a corrective retracement back to 1.0465 before downtrend resumes. There is a Fibo zone around 1.0370 and December low just beneath it that could cause a bounce.
EURUSD: New Pull-back Could Be A New Long Opportunity
EURUSD is trading nicely higher since we called end of a wave ii) pull-back at 1.3413. Notice that market moved higher in five waves from that swing low, which represents impulsive wave iii) of a larger five wave rally. As such, we favour more upside on EURUSD, even towards 1.3700 but before that be aware of a corrective wave iv) retracement back to 1.3550. Larger trend however remains up as long as 1.3480 is not breached, therefore trader should stick with longs.
If you are wondering why 1.3480 level is important; its because wave four must not make an overlap with wave one, otherwise Elliott Wave rule of impulse would be violated and new, different wave count should then be considered.
EURUSD is trading nicely higher since we called end of a wave ii) pull-back at 1.3413. Notice that market moved higher in five waves from that swing low, which represents impulsive wave iii) of a larger five wave rally. As such, we favour more upside on EURUSD, even towards 1.3700 but before that be aware of a corrective wave iv) retracement back to 1.3550. Larger trend however remains up as long as 1.3480 is not breached, therefore trader should stick with longs.
If you are wondering why 1.3480 level is important; its because wave four must not make an overlap with wave one, otherwise Elliott Wave rule of impulse would be violated and new, different wave count should then be considered.
i think this is Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast (Daily Update) Forex is make good pairs in technical analysis and i like this thanks
EURUSD Gains Slowed Down At 1.3700, But Only Temporary
EURUSD has extended its gains on Friday but then stopped at 138.2% Fibonacci extension level of wave i) measured from wave ii) low. In fact, pair found resistance after five waves up from 1.3414 so actually corrective retracement should not be a surprise as we expect a pull-back of a red wave iv). With that said, keep in mind that pull-back will be only temporary at may find a base around 1.3550/80 zone.
Only a break beneath 1.3480 would invalidate the wave count and suggests that EURUSD is ready for a sizeable decline.
EURUSD has extended its gains on Friday but then stopped at 138.2% Fibonacci extension level of wave i) measured from wave ii) low. In fact, pair found resistance after five waves up from 1.3414 so actually corrective retracement should not be a surprise as we expect a pull-back of a red wave iv). With that said, keep in mind that pull-back will be only temporary at may find a base around 1.3550/80 zone.
Only a break beneath 1.3480 would invalidate the wave count and suggests that EURUSD is ready for a sizeable decline.
EURUSD Update II: Bearish Reversal- Respect the Price Action (Elliott Wave)
24 hours back we were still observing bullish counts on EURUSD, but sharp fall invalidate it, which means that something is changing. Notice that pair reversed from its highs clearly in impulsive fashion through the channel support line of the latest bullish run, connected from 1.3262. Pair closed well bellow that trend-line which is important evidence for a temporary change in trend. As such, we need to respect this price action and immediately re-adjust the wave counts. Current structure suggests that EURUSD will make a minimum three wave decline from 1.3710, because this is the minimum structure of a corrective price action. Ideally we will see a simple zig-zag, labeled as an A-B-C move. Currently, price is still falling within wave A so we will see more sideways and bearish price action beneath 1.3400 and possibly to 1.3315 triangle pivot level after a wave B pull-back which will probably unfold ahead of the ECB rates decision on Thursday.
24 hours back we were still observing bullish counts on EURUSD, but sharp fall invalidate it, which means that something is changing. Notice that pair reversed from its highs clearly in impulsive fashion through the channel support line of the latest bullish run, connected from 1.3262. Pair closed well bellow that trend-line which is important evidence for a temporary change in trend. As such, we need to respect this price action and immediately re-adjust the wave counts. Current structure suggests that EURUSD will make a minimum three wave decline from 1.3710, because this is the minimum structure of a corrective price action. Ideally we will see a simple zig-zag, labeled as an A-B-C move. Currently, price is still falling within wave A so we will see more sideways and bearish price action beneath 1.3400 and possibly to 1.3315 triangle pivot level after a wave B pull-back which will probably unfold ahead of the ECB rates decision on Thursday.
USD Index Is Bullish For the Near-term Which Will Keep the EURUSD Bellow 1.3710
USD Index has recovered very sharply from below 79.00 level. Recovery was impulsive so we need to respect this type of a price action, that’s why we turned bullish on the USD for a few days. Always when market will make just a corrective pull-back you need to remember that structure still needs to be made in three waves. If we look on our chart then we can clearly see that rise from the low is actually only in one completed leg; that’s wave (a), so be aware of more upside in this week. Ideally market is forming an (a)-(b)-(c) retracement, called a zig-zag towards 80.15-80.50 region. At that zone you will also notice a trend-line connected from November 16 which could react as a resistance if tested of-course.
For the very near-term we could see deeper levels in wave (b) with possible test of 79.40 region before wave (c) breaks higher. With higher near-term prediction for the USD be aware of more weakness on EURUSD.
USD Index has recovered very sharply from below 79.00 level. Recovery was impulsive so we need to respect this type of a price action, that’s why we turned bullish on the USD for a few days. Always when market will make just a corrective pull-back you need to remember that structure still needs to be made in three waves. If we look on our chart then we can clearly see that rise from the low is actually only in one completed leg; that’s wave (a), so be aware of more upside in this week. Ideally market is forming an (a)-(b)-(c) retracement, called a zig-zag towards 80.15-80.50 region. At that zone you will also notice a trend-line connected from November 16 which could react as a resistance if tested of-course.
For the very near-term we could see deeper levels in wave (b) with possible test of 79.40 region before wave (c) breaks higher. With higher near-term prediction for the USD be aware of more weakness on EURUSD.
Intra-day Review For USDCHF and EURUSD (Elliott Wave)
Markets did not move much during the Asian trading hours, despite lower stock prices that followed bearish price action seen yesterday on European and US shares.
The EURUSD was mostly flat around 1.3500 level but pair has now turned bullish ahead of the ECB. Looks like the reaction is technically based that came in from weaker USDCHF.
Notice that USDCHF made three waves up to 0.9148 but we still need to see break of a corrective channel support line and 0.9055 as well to confirm weakness towards 0.9000. Anyhow sooner or later pair will test this psychological level.
USDCHF 1h
At the same time we are tracking bullish intra-day pattern on EURUSD, where we could see test of 1.3600 resistance in incomplete wave B, before pair turns bearish for wave C.
EURUSD 1h
Markets did not move much during the Asian trading hours, despite lower stock prices that followed bearish price action seen yesterday on European and US shares.
The EURUSD was mostly flat around 1.3500 level but pair has now turned bullish ahead of the ECB. Looks like the reaction is technically based that came in from weaker USDCHF.
Notice that USDCHF made three waves up to 0.9148 but we still need to see break of a corrective channel support line and 0.9055 as well to confirm weakness towards 0.9000. Anyhow sooner or later pair will test this psychological level.
USDCHF 1h
At the same time we are tracking bullish intra-day pattern on EURUSD, where we could see test of 1.3600 resistance in incomplete wave B, before pair turns bearish for wave C.
EURUSD 1h
Oil: Buyers Could Wait On Deeper and Better Levels Within Bearish Correction
Oil fell down to $95 this week before turned bullish again. However, we think that latest bullish reversal is only temporary, as we are tracking an incomplete corrective decline in wave 4) that should be structured by three legs. We labeled a leading diagonal in wave A followed by a current wave B bounce towards 97.30/50 from where price could turn bearish for wave C.
If you are familiar with the Elliott Wave Theory then you will know that fourth waves can be very tricky, because there are many different patterns available, like flat, triangle, zig-zag, or maybe even combination between them. However, the most common structure on the markets is a zig-zag. A zig-zag is a three wave pattern, labeled as A-B-C that occurs against the primary trend. As such, we will focus on this structure for now, which means more downside could be seen in the next couple of days, possibly even back to $93-$94 zone; 38.2% retracement and base channel supports as shown on a daily chart below.
Oil fell down to $95 this week before turned bullish again. However, we think that latest bullish reversal is only temporary, as we are tracking an incomplete corrective decline in wave 4) that should be structured by three legs. We labeled a leading diagonal in wave A followed by a current wave B bounce towards 97.30/50 from where price could turn bearish for wave C.
If you are familiar with the Elliott Wave Theory then you will know that fourth waves can be very tricky, because there are many different patterns available, like flat, triangle, zig-zag, or maybe even combination between them. However, the most common structure on the markets is a zig-zag. A zig-zag is a three wave pattern, labeled as A-B-C that occurs against the primary trend. As such, we will focus on this structure for now, which means more downside could be seen in the next couple of days, possibly even back to $93-$94 zone; 38.2% retracement and base channel supports as shown on a daily chart below.
EURUSD, More bullish this week!
EURUSD Weekly Chart
4 Hour Elliott Wave Outlook EUR/USD
EURUSD Weekly Chart
4 Hour Elliott Wave Outlook EUR/USD
USDJPY Breaks Higher Again; 95.00 Now In View
JPY was pushed lower again while Japanese shares soared after a Bank of Japan member said that more monetary easing could be justified later this year. USDJPY reached levels around 94.40 but we see an incomplete impulse from 92.15 swing low which means that pair should continue higher. We expect at least one more push up as current pull-back appears to be corrective black wave iv. Support for the pair comes in at 93.60/70.
S&P Futures are in a pull-back mode after five wave rally from 1494. So far decline looks corrective so we like the idea of incomplete uptrend. Support comes in around 1505. This count is also bearish for JPY, which means higher USDJPY.
JPY was pushed lower again while Japanese shares soared after a Bank of Japan member said that more monetary easing could be justified later this year. USDJPY reached levels around 94.40 but we see an incomplete impulse from 92.15 swing low which means that pair should continue higher. We expect at least one more push up as current pull-back appears to be corrective black wave iv. Support for the pair comes in at 93.60/70.
S&P Futures are in a pull-back mode after five wave rally from 1494. So far decline looks corrective so we like the idea of incomplete uptrend. Support comes in around 1505. This count is also bearish for JPY, which means higher USDJPY.
EURUSD: Patiently Waiting For a Bullish Reversal
Daily close above the trend-line that would confirm the bullish reversal.
Daily close above the trend-line that would confirm the bullish reversal.
Oil Corrective Wave IV (Elliott Wave)
Price will accelerate lower in impulsive manner back to 94.90 toward Wave 4
Price will accelerate lower in impulsive manner back to 94.90 toward Wave 4
German DAX Suggests More EURUSD Weakness After The Pull-back
German DAX is in down-trend in this week same as EURUSD from Feb 13 high. Expecting on DAX; 3-wave retracement in wave (ii) ideally back to 7650/70.
DAX 30min
EURUSD
Three wave retracement in wave B back to 1.3400 should be interesting EURUSD 1h
German DAX is in down-trend in this week same as EURUSD from Feb 13 high. Expecting on DAX; 3-wave retracement in wave (ii) ideally back to 7650/70.
DAX 30min
EURUSD
Three wave retracement in wave B back to 1.3400 should be interesting EURUSD 1h
GBPUSD Now Below 2009 Trend-line; Sharp Fall To Come?!
Break of wave D) 1.5267 low that will confirm the bearish view for wave (C) fall towards 1.3000.
Break of wave D) 1.5267 low that will confirm the bearish view for wave (C) fall towards 1.3000.
From the News
-
7BForex Broker: Closed
-
Afterprime Broker: Reviews and Specifications
-
ForexVox – 30% Deposit Bonus
-
ForexVox – 20% Floating Deposit Bonus
-
ForexVox – 100% Welcome Bonus
-
ForexChief – Gold Whale Monthly Contest
-
Pacific Union – 50% Deposit Bonus
-
Pacific Union – Refer a Friend
-
Ventezo – WINtezo Monthly Contest 2023
-
Headway – Dreamway: Share a dream, make it real
