Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS.com

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09 October 2013: Nervousness Increases On Wall Street

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Tuesday, the American market finished the trading session again with a decrease. Democrats and republicans continue to insist on their positions, and all week negotiations didn't move from a 'dead point'. Yesterday, president Barack Obama declared that he agrees to resume negotiations only after governmental departments will re-open, and the national debt ceiling, without any conditions, is raised.

In statistical data, we note that the index of economic optimism of IBD decreased in October to 38.4 points, from 46 points. The statistics on trade balance of the USA was not announced.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed in 1.07% minus on a level of 14776.53 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 lost 1.23% reaching a level of 1655.45 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies, Nasdaq, decreased by 2.00% to a level of 3694.83 points.

The price for Brent this morning is decreasing by 0.11%, traded on a price of 109.27$ per barrel. Light is flat on the price of 103.30$ per barrel. Precious metals are losing in price with Gold and Silver traded on 1316.81$ and 22.26$ accordingly.

On the currency market, the Dollar is weakening in relation to major currencies. EUR/USD is traded on 1.3527. Problems in the USA are pushing the Dollar to go down and against all this, even the publication of the protocol from the last meeting of the FOMC will barely be able to strengthen USD positions.

Great Britain will publish a whole series of reports on industrial production, trade balance and gross domestic product from NIESR today. If indicators will continue to show stable growth of the national economy, it can push the currency pair to reach the next resistance level, based on 1.6150.


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10 October 2013: Republicans Refuse Attacks On Health Care Reform In The USA

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

For the first time this week, the atmosphere in the markets seem to be moderately positive. News on different subjects coming from the USA are giving investors hope that the situation in the United States will be resolved soon.

Yesterday, the White House unofficially announced that on Wednesday Obama will announce that Janet Yellen will become Ben Bernanke's successor, and will take the post of the head of the FED. Bernanke's term expires on January 31, and Yellen had high chances to replace him, given the fact her views are similar to Bernanke's in regards to monetary policy and the support of QE. The rumors came true - Obama declared that Yellen will replace Bernanke unofficially. After this news, indexes started to strengthen their positions, winning back potential preservation of the softened monetary policy when the new head of FED will take her place.

It should be noted that powers of the current head of FED will expire on January 31, 2014, so the question of QE coming to a halt is still within his right to decide. According to the "minutes" of the FED, halting the program of quantitative easing is supposed to begin this year, however, we should not forget that it has been reconsidered prior to the beginning of shutdown, so the situation could still change. Especially as, in September, the decision on preservation of volumes of QE was made after the analysis of macroeconomic data, which were unsatisfactory. Now, key reports simply aren't published because of the compelled holiday of state employees, so bankers will have nothing to analyze at the next meeting.

Also, markets are supported by messages that the republicans refuse attacks on reform of health care and pass to lobbying of other articles of the budget. According to some of them, attempt to influence destiny of this law failed.

As for the numbers, Dow Jones increased yesterday by 0.17% reaching the level of 14802.98 points, Nasdaq lost 0.46% traded on a level of 3677.78 points and S&P 500 increased by 0.05%, reaching the level of 1656.40 points.

Oil prices are increasing, with Brent and Light growing in price by around 0.50%. Brent is traded on 108.91$ per barrel, and Light on 101.92$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are flat on 1307.22$ and 21.97$ accordingly. EUR/USD went down to 1.35.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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11 October 2013: Hopes For Fast Achievement Of A Compromise Caused Rally In The US Market

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Thursday, the market of the United States of America finished the trading session in positive territory, based on the information that republicans and democrats will shortly be able to reach a compromise for the solution of the budgetary question.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, grew by 2.18% and was closed on a level of 15 126,07 points. The index of the wide market S&P 500 increased by 2.18% to level of 1 692.56 points, and the index of hi-tech companies, Nasdaq "recovered" by 2.26% to a level of 3 760.75 points.

It has been reported that the parties are ready to consider the possibility of a temporary increase of the upper bound of the national debt. Republicans suggest to raise the ceiling for 4-6 weeks during which it will be possible to resolve issues with the budget and, thereby, avoiding a default. This idea was supported by the Administration of the President Barack Obama also.

The macroeconomic statistics on the labor market issued yesterday didn't cause a rough reaction of investors. Notice that the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits made 374 thousand, whereas 310 thousand were expected. It is still not clear, whether the increased numbers are related to the temporary suspension of sectors of government work, or they are connected with some technical problems in California, which were mentioned previously.

Currently indexes are increasing in price, although we cannot see the same positive development with the Dollar. The Dollar still remains to be under strong pressure. This morning, EUR/USD currency pair bargains around the level of 1.3534.

The financial markets remain hostages of the events occurring in the USA, and any sign of progress in this case causes a surge in the emotions of investors. However, each time increased demand for USD carries a short-term nature, as the American government only delays it's decision-making on the national debt. Occurrences will unambiguously have echoes in data on consumer and business confidence in the future, which will result in weak demand for the purchases of goods during the Christmas season, and will effect profits of the corporate sector. It will create conditions for a decline of the American currency in the future.

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14 October 2013: Possible Compromise Of The Congress Of The US, Sets Mood At The Stock Markets

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.


On Friday, key stock indexes of Europe showed positive dynamics the second day in a row, based on the information that the Congress of the USA can agree on raising the level of the national debt of the country, having reduced, thereby, the threat of a possible default. It should be noted that negotiations of politicians will proceed, thus republicans already put forward offers on a temporary increase in the ceiling of the national debt of the USA.

In the light of the latest events, the government of the USA hasn't worked since October 1, and meanwhile, October 17 is approaching, when it will be necessary to make the decision on the increase of the ceiling of the national debt of the country.

As a result, the Dow Jones finished the trading week at 15237.11 increasing by 0.73%, Nasdaq increased by 0.84%, S&P 500 added 0.62% traded on a level of 1703.29 points.

From the macroeconomic statistics published on Friday, the consumer price index of Germany for September did not change, as expected. Meanwhile, in the USA, the new reporting season started which brought optimistic vibes on the market. The reporting of the American banks JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, surpassed market expectations. JP Morgan showed a loss following the results of the last quarter, but it is mainly connected with legal costs. Except for this article, the profit on a share made $1.42, whereas an increase to $1.29 was expected. This week, many important corporate publications are expected, tomorrow will we see reports from Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Intel and Yahoo.

Commodity and currency markets are stable, upward movement of Gold and Silver can be seen, which again left below levels of 1300.00 and 22.00 accordingly. This morning, Gold is traded on a price of 1275.87$ per troy ounce, adding 0.60% and Silver is up by 0.73% at 21.41$ per troy ounce.

Monday in quite poor regarding macroeconomic statistics. Consumer price index has been published in China which recorded unexpectedly high growth of the indicator in September by 3.1%, when -2.9% had been forecasted. In the European region, data on industrial production of 17 countries of the Eurozone will be published.

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15 October 2013: The Problem In The US Will Be Resolved Hollywood Style - At The Last Moment!

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Last night, the leader of the democrats in the Senate, Harry Reid, declared that essential progress in the solution of the budgetary question has been made, and an agreement between the parties could be reached within the next 24 hours.

However, it has been reported that an agreement on the two main points still hasn't been able to be reached, namely the terms of a possible increase of the ceiling of debt, and financing of the bill of the renewal of activity of the government, which are still being discussed.

The trading session in the USA finished with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.42% reaching the level of 15301, 26 points. S&P 500 increased by 0.41% traded on a level of 1710.14 points and Nasdaq reached 3815.28 having added 0.61%. The trading session in Asia passed with an increase of the main indexes against positive expectations whilst the budget of the USA was observed.

The price of Oil futures of the Light brand this morning is falling by 0.26%, traded on the price of 102.20$ per barrel, Brent is also decreasing by 0.26% traded on the price of 109.95$ per barrel. Gold and Silver continue to loose in price. Gold is traded on the price of 1268.79$ per troy ounce losing more than 0.61%. Silver is down by 1.16% traded on the price of 21.11$ per troy ounce.

As for the currency market, if yesterday we observed a decline in demand for the US Dollar, it doesn't mean that today the situation will continue to be the same! The market actually doesn't believe that the American authorities will bring the matter to a default, therefore after correction of positions on Monday, currency pairs can fall into a consolidation mode up until the announcement of the agreement or approaches on October 17. Today, economic releases from Europe can influence the trading dynamics of the currency pairs. The Eurozone will publish the report on business moods from ZEW institute in Germany.

As for the time being, EUR/USD currency pair bargains around level of 1.3559.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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17 October 2013: The US Congress Saved The Country From A Default At The Last Moment

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Yesterday, the trading session past and waited upon the expectation of news from the USA, and as it was predicted - the decision was made at the last moment. The day ended up with the news that the Senate of the US almost unanimously voted for a temporary increase of the ceiling of the national debt and the renewal of financing of the government, and later at the House of Representatives the document was also approved.

Earlier the Congress of the US also voted for a law which resumes government financing until January the 15th 2014, and prevents default threat until February the 7th 2014. Now, only the final decision of the president needs to be obtained. However, Barack Obama already declared that he will sign the bill immediately. Thus, Washington kept it's firm traditions - rescuing the economy from a default at the last minute time.

Obviously the awaited news gave an immediate boost to the markets before closing, and we observed some kind of a dynamic rally. Dow Jones raised by 1.36% to the level of 15373.83 points, Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 1.38% to the level of 1721.54 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 1.20% and reached the level of 3839.43 points.

As for the currency market, we could not see any positive support for the Dollar, and so far the Dollar is continuing to weaken against other major currencies. Most probably the decision of the congress had been already included in the price. Now, after the solution of the question, comes the understanding of how much the politicians did harm to the American economy with all their disagreements. It is possible to expect a correctional kickback in the EUR/USD pair, with next purpose based on 1.36.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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18 October 2013: Attention Of Investors Switched To Macroeconomic Statistics

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.01% to the level of 15371.65 points. The index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.67% to the level of 1733.15 points, and the index of high-tech industries, Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.62% and reached the level of 3863.15 points.

Data on industrial production and the number of constructions that had begun weren't published yesterday, but the weekly statistics on the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits showed a small decrease, from the reconsidered 373 thousand to 358 thousand, but nevertheless this decrease was weaker than the expected 335 thousand.

Yesterday, we had an opportunity to observe in the market a classical scheme "buy on hearings – sell on the facts". As soon as the US declared the decision, the markets ceased to support the American currency. As a result, the EUR/USD finished the trading day around the level of 1.3670, and GBP/USD – around 1.6150.

EUR/USD got good support, not only due to technical correction, but also in connection with news that the Chinese rating agency lowered the status of sovereign debt of the US from A to -A. The pair reached a minimum at 1.3515 then the announcement of the restoration of work of the American government was made, and thereafter the pair started to grow. As a result, the currency reached its maximum at 1.3675.

One more interesting development was observed in the Gold and Silver market. The most interesting point was that prices of Gold punched upward, a bearish corridor from 28th of August 2013. Considering that the cease government activity caused the US economic damage, the FRS, at the meeting at the end of the month, won't decide on a reduction of the program of monetary easing. In November, there will be discussions regarding Janet Yellen taking her post as the head of FED, madam Yellen will defend for certain adaptive monetary policy that will give support to Gold. This morning Gold is decreasing by 0.41%, having traded on the price of 1317.47$ per troy ounce.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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22 October 2013: Investors Look Forward To Data On The US Labor Market

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main indices, except for the index of blue chips. Standard & Poor’s 500 succeeded in retaining record highs, but investors were not ready to continue to push the index up further before important macroeconomic statistical data would be published today.

Yesterday data was published on sales of houses in the secondary market for September, and they were not too encouraging. August’s value was reconsidered towards a decrease from 5.48 million to 5.39 million, and in September it made only 5.29 million, when at the time the average forecasts of 5.30 million had been predicted. This fact also limited the purchasing moods on stock markets. The statistics on expenses on construction for August has still not been published.

By the end of the month reports will be presented which were not published during the period when all government agencies were closed. Today, statistics on employment and unemployment for September is expected.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.05% to the level of 15392.20 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by just 0.01% to the level of 1744.66 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite, went up by 0.15% and reached the level of 3920.05 points.

European stock markets also finished the trading session quite differently. From the statistics, it is worth to pay an attention to the increase of industrial prices in Germany by 0.3%, when analysts expected growth by only 0.1%. From the corporate sector good news arrived from Philips, which showed a triple increase in net profit. However, DAX increased by 0.02%, FTSE 100 grew by 0.48%, and CAC 40 lost 0.21%.

Brent is traded on a price of 109.70$ per barrel, increasing by 0.05%. Light went below the level of 100.00$ per barrel, and is traded on a price of 99.39$, losing 0.29% this morning. Gold and Silver are stable at the level of 1316.10$ and 22.155$ accordingly.

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23 October 2013: Statistics On The Labor Market Of The US Disappointed Investors

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Long awaited September data on employment disappointed participants of the market, having shown a gain which was much weaker than expectations. However, it helped to strengthen the opinion that due to such sluggish dynamics of the labor market, the FRS won't take the risk to displace the QE program.

The Ministry of Labour reported that employment in non-agricultural sectors increased by 148 thousand, when 180 thousand were forecast. In the press release, it was noted that growth of the indicator was observed in construction, wholesale trade, transportation, and warehouse sectors. Unemployment rate thus unexpectedly decreased to 7.2% from 7.3%. The average duration of the working week remained at the former level of 34.5 hours, but growth rates of an average hourly salary showed slower development - 0.1% against the expected 0.2%.

As a result, the indicator of "blue chips", the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, was closed in 0.49% plus on a level of 15467.66 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 increased by 0.57% to the level of 1754.67 points, and the index of hi-tech companies, the Nasdaq, increased 0.24% to the level of 3929.57 points.

Despite positive development on the stock markets, we could observe that on currency markets volatility was off the scale, and the Dollar came under strong pressure. The Euro broke the important level of 1.37, and continued its growth, having reached a maximum at 1.3788. This morning, the currency pair bargains near 1.3767. Tomorrow the PMI index of the Eurozone will be published, if it will appear to be above forecasts again, it will only strengthen the determination of the currency pair to continue it’s growth. After the breakdown of the resistance level on 1.3780, the currency pair will direct to the area based on 1.3840.

Commodities are decreasing in price today. Brent and Light are losing 0.32% and 0.54% accordingly, Light went below the price of 98.00$ per barrel and is traded on the price of 97.77$ per barrel. Gold is traded on the price of 13336.78$ per troy ounce, losing 0.43% and Silver is down by 0.31% at the price of 22.72$ per troy ounce.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

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24 October 2013: Nine Day Rally In Europe Has Ended

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Yesterday, stock indices finished the trading session in the red zone. Weak quarterly results of a number of the largest companies, and also Mario Dragi's statement for the forthcoming stress tests of banks, became the main reason for the suspension of the nine day rally, the longest for the last 40 months.

Papers of the European banks were under strong pressure, reason for that being the speech of the head of the European Central Bank M.Dragi, who, during his press conference, stated rather rigidly that if the bank didn't pass a stress test, it would be bankrupted. This means that peripheral banks shouldn't count on help from outside. In November, the European regulator will begin a complex check of financial institutions. Any bankruptcy, even if it will be initiated by the government of the country, will promote sales of shares, especially in the banking sector.

The British FTSE 100 receded by 0.32%, the French CAC 40 lost 0.81% and the German DAX weakened by 0.31%.

Strangely enough, all these conversations had a limited impact on the EUR/USD. Analytics are stating that lately the Euro is in demand from Asian institutional investors, who are reconsidering the currency reserves and are slowly losing faith in the Dollar. The pair from the level of opening 1.3779, went down to a minimum of 1.3741, and this morning went through the level of 1.38 and is traded on the level of 1.3815.

US indices also moderately decreased, however, significant sales didn't happen. Following the results of the trading session, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.35%, and the S&P500 by 0.49%. The Chinese Shanghai Comp. decreased by 0.2%, and the Japanese Nikkei fell by 0.6%, making them the outsiders of the day. In particular, it couldve been caused by the publication of preliminary data on the index of business activity in China, according to the HSBC version the indicator decreased to 50.9 points.

Today there will be one more chance to check what economy is recovering more steadily. Data on business activity in the manufacturing industry and in the services sector of the Eurozone and Germany will cause great interest in market participants. If business activity in both sectors will appear above forecasts again, demand for the currency pair will increase. In the case of the EUR/USD braking the level of 1.3780, the pair will direct to the area of 1.3840.

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25 October 2013: Quarterly Reports Of Companies Continue To Please Investors

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Leading European and American indices grew yesterday by 0.2-0.6%, the increase being promoted by good corporate reports and weak statistics on employment from the USA. Investors see the macroeconomic indicators as confirmation that stimulating policies and the monetary easing program will be kept. Unemployment benefit figures in the US, which have shown a growth of the number of requests to 350 thousand, when only 330 thousand were predicted, is definitely an argument for sustaining the QE program.

In turn, reports of American companies continue to please investors. The report of Microsoft, published after the close of the trading session, affected the rise in price of company papers by 7%, during an electronic trading session. On average, the profit of 217 companies, which have already reported the last quarterly results for the S&P 500 index, have been better than market expectations in 77% of cases, profit being in 53%.

Commodities are weak again today. Prices of Oil rise slightly on Friday, but finish the week with an essential decrease. Brent is traded on the price of 107.05$ per barrel, increasing from yesterday by only 0.06%, Light is up by 0.03% at the price of 97.14$. Since the beginning of this week, Brent has fallen in price by 2.4%. The cost of WTI fell by 3.3%, that is the maximum decrease since June. Gold and Silver are losing 0.63% and 1.77% accordingly. The future contract on Oil of the Brent brand bargains at the price of $107 per barrel, WTI $96 per barrel.

In relation to the EUR/USD, the Dollar has again been under strong pressure and the pair could, from level of opening of 1.3774, move to a maximum on 1.3824. Nevertheless, data which was published yesterday has been rather inconsistent. Data from the Euro zone limited further movements. PMI in France in the manufacturing sector left below the 50 point level, and in the services sector , didn't fulfill forecasts. Indicators in Germany showed a similar dynamic. As a result, the pair was rolled away to the area of 1.38, but even after these disappointing figures the EUR/USD feels quite confident. However, if today's indicators of IFO will confirm a decrease, it will return the pair to the area of 1.3710.

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28 October 2013: Meeting Of The FRS Will Become A Significant Event Of The Week

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

In the European markets, trading dynamics on Friday were rather different. Indices of the peripheral countries were decreasing. The Spanish IBEX 35 lost 1.01%, the Italian FTSE MIB decreased by 1.45%, and the others were bargaining without almost any change.

Last week was full of statistics, which were moving markets in different directions, due to the fact that the presented data had not been supporting any trend. The index of business climate of IFO in Germany in October, unexpectedly decreased for the first time in half a year, from 107.7 points to 107.4 points. In the US, the volume of orders for durable goods in September grew by 3.7%. Final value of the index of consumer confidence of Michigan university decreased to 73.2 points, which was below preliminary data and forecasts.

However, despite the statistics, the main American indices on Friday continued careful growth, having added about 0.4%. S&P 500 had just little to go in order to reach a new historical maximum, having increased by 0.44%, and traded on the level of 1759.77 points. Partly it was promoted again by corporate reporting.

The main event of the week will become the announcement of the results of the FED meeting. Nevertheless, from the American regulator nobody expects any changes in the monetary policy. Supposedly, the program of monetary easing will not change. Volumes of purchases of securities within the program of quantitative easing will be kept at the level of 85 billion a month. Since September, not enough data was published that was capable to change the macroeconomic picture in favor of the need to begin the reduction of monetary incentives. Moreover, the report on the labor market for October was slightly worse than expectations, which is an additional limiting factor.

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29 October 2013: The Dollar Continues Insignificant Strengthening

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Monday, October the 28th, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session almost next to the zero levels. Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by 0.01% to the level of 15568.93 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.13% to a level of 1762.11 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus for 0.08% and reached the level of 3940.13 points. It is quite interesting that the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 is on the way to have the most advantageous year in a decade.

As for the macroeconomic statistics published yesterday, the data on industrial production for September increased by 0.6%, average forecasts of growth were 0.4%. However, it is impossible to tell whether this fact influenced the behaviour of investors, as all are absorbed by the thought that October events thus far removed the beginning of the turning of the QE program to next year.

In the commodity market, futures for Brent are losing this morning 0.48% traded on a price of 109.09$ per barrel. Light is down to 98.35$ per barrel, having decreased by 0.33%. Gold and Silver are up by 0.14% and 0.18% accordingly, traded on 1354.02$ and 22.58$ per troy ounce.

Trading in the currency market at the opening of week proceeded rather quietly. Publication of the retails of the US will become the main influencing factor for the EUR/USD today. Despite a delay in the publication, it will be interesting to see at what level there was a consumer demand directly before a political play. If the indicator will be quite weak, it will become one more reason for purchase. The pair could break the record of the recently reached 2 year maximum, on the level of 1.3831, and direct to the area of 1.3870, the level of which we saw last time in November 2011.

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30 October 2013: The Whole World Expects Optimism From FRS Decisions

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

The American trading session ended by reaching a new historical maximum. S&P 500 updates it record the third session in a row, whilst NASDAQ is on a maximum level since September 2000. Again, weak statistics have been giving support to the markets, and were pushing indices to go up. Retails in the US decreased in September by 0.1%, when growth of 0.1% had been expected. The index of consumer confidence of Conference Board fell to 71.2 from 79.7.

It is natural that the published statistics are leading investors to buy more before the FRS meeting. The majority of participants of the market don't expect any changes in the volume of the quantitative easing program. It is also worth bearing in mind the prices of houses. The S&P/Case-Shiller index in August showed a rise of 12.8% in prices for residential real estate in 20 main city formations of the USA. The August price grew by +0.9% alone.

The Asian markets are also full of optimism. MSCI Asia-Pacific in Tokyo rose by 0.5%. Industrial production in Japan grew in September. This morning the Nikkei 225 grew by 1.03%, and Shanghai Composite adds 0.76%.

As for the commodity market, Gold is not moving, and seems to be waiting for the FRS decision. Quotations decreased on Tuesday, and this morning Gold is traded on the price of 1346.27$ per troy ounce, adding 0.06%. Even reserves of SPDR Gold Trust didn't change. Oil is also decreasing, the second day in a row, especially Light, having lost 0.44% and is traded on the price of 97.77$ per barrel. Brent is up by 0.12% at a price of 109.14$ per barrel.

Today, it is necessary to pay attention to the following macroeconomic events: unemployment in Germany, indexes of expectations and business climate in the Eurozone, the indicator of employment of ADP Services, data on consumer inflation in the US, data of the Ministry of Energy of the US on stocks, and consumption of oil and oil products. The main event of course, being the results of the FED meeting, which have been awaited by participants of the market for the last two weeks.

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01 November 2013: Investors continue To Digest Results Of FED Meeting

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

The trading session finished with a small loss in the American stock market on Thursday, having decreased for the second day in a row. Dow Jones decreased by 0.47% and has been trading on the level of 15545.75 points, S&P500 fell to the level of 1756.54 points, losing 0.36%, and Nasdaq Composite lost 0.27% being at the end of the day on the level of 3919.17 points. The main influencing factor has been strong data on the Chicago index of business activity, as for some time now all statistics have been perceived by investors through a prism of prospects of the program of quantitative easing.

Yesterday, investors were waiting for the results of the FED meeting and now continue to digest the results of it, trying to find anything in the text which could outline when the QE-3 program will start to be reduced. A number of large western banks already changed their forecasts in this respect. For example, Credit Suisse considers that the volume of QE3 will be reduced not in March, but in January 2014, by $10 billion, and it is worth waiting for the full turning by September, 2014.

American news does not really seem to be bothering investors in Europe. Yesterday we could observe quite optimistic moods in the European platforms. The German DAX index finished the trading session at the maximum historical level on 9033.9 points, having shown an annual gain of 18.67%.

However, it should be stressed that the situation in the currency market and in particular, the situation with the Euro, strongly changed since the beginning of week. EUR/USD continued to suffer from correction of positions in connection with a difference of views of the national Central Banks on the further course of monetary policy. Macroeconomic statistical data which turned out to be quite weak, only increased uncertainty in relation to the Euro.

Undoubtedly, statements of Mr. Novotna also affected positions of the Euro. Earlier during the week he already managed to excite the markets with the statement that the decrease in the rate on deposits is excluded, and then it gave support to the Euro. This time he made a hint that the European Central Bank could again start to use LTRO operations in order to maintain liquidity at sufficient levels. The regulator really should have a certain plan of action on the future as the current economic indicators show that the process of recovery proceeds unstably.

As a result, the pair from the level of opening on 1.3733 came down to a minimum of 1.3583, having finished the day around 1.36. This morning EUR/USD pair continued it’s downward movement and is traded on the level of 1.35610.

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04 November 2013: The Markets Open The Month Having Made A Good Start

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

The Dow Jones index raised by 0.45% to 15615.55 points, the gain in a week being 0.3%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index raised by 0.29%, having closed at the level of 1761.64 points, and having gained in a week only 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite index raised by 0.06% to value of 3922.04 points, having lowered within a week by 0.5%.

On Friday, there was only one important macroeconomic news published across the USA, the assessment of industrial activity in country scales for the last month. The index of economic conditions in the production sphere ISM, counted by the Institute of management of deliveries of the USA in October, grew to the maximum value since April 2011, having reached the level of 56.4 points, when analytics were predicting a decrease to 55.0 points from 56.2 points, the month before. This result became a pleasant surprise, considering the situation we observed in October in connection with the threat of a default. It should be noted that this index, for the 5th month in a row, stays on a level above 50 points, which testifies the increase in the sectors activity. The positive wave of American industrial data was supported by higher than expected growth rates of industrial activity in China, in October.

The commodity market is stagnating and major commodities are showing a down going trend. The price of futures of Gold on Friday fell by 10.50 Dollars or 0.9%, to a value of 1313.20 Dollars per troy ounce. This morning, Gold is traded on a price of 1312.28$. Gold lost in price, due to essential strengthening of positions of the Dollar throughout a basket of world currencies, mainly at the expense of the EUR/USD currency pair. Factor in that the FED, in the final document of the last meeting, didn't exclude the possibility of a reduction of volumes of buying up of assets in the current year, has also been a significant influence in pushing Gold down. In total, Gold for the week lost 2.9%. Due to the decrease in the price of Gold, the world's largest gold-mining company, the Canadian Barrick Gold lost 7.1%, and the leader in the USA, and only a part of S&P 500 index, Newmont Mining, receded by 4.7%.

The price of Brent is on the level of 106.30$ per barrel this morning, Light is on the price of 95.11$. Oil fell in price to the minimum level since June the 21st, due to the strengthening of the Dollar, and continuous growth of its stocks within the last 6 weeks, according to data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA. Following the results of the 4th in a row unprofitable week, "black gold" suffered losses of 3.3%.

The upcoming week is the first week of the new month, and therefore will be saturated with the key macroeconomic releases, capable to have considerable impact on the development in the stock markets and dynamics of the currencies.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

05 November 2013: Markets Move Depending On Published Statistical Data

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Yesterday, we did not see any essential changes in foreign stock markets. The American platforms on Monday were trading with volumes which were lower than average. Dow Jones increased by 0.15%, S&P 500 grew by 0.36%, and Nasdaq Composite added 0.38%. Support to the markets was given by R. Fisher's speech, where he negatively expressed his attitude towards political disagreements between republicans and democrats that led to the termination of financing of the budgetary establishments.

In the meantime, Asian platforms bargain in different directions.The Australian ASX200 is doing better than the others, which adds about 0.8%, supported by the news that Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate at the current level of 2.5%. Chinese Shanghai Composite decreases by 0.4%. In the morning data was published on the index of business activity in the services sector according to the HSBC version, which in October grew to 52.6 points. The Japanese market, after a national holiday on Monday, shows sluggish movement, increasing by 0.1% in relation to closing levels on Friday.

It can be assumed that the trading session in the European stock platforms is going to pass rather quietly, due to the fact that there is not a lot of statistical data to be published today. Data of economic moods of the countries of the Eurozone yesterday showed traditionally good results. As it had been expected, the PMI index in the production sector for the region made 51.3 points, having confirmed an initial assessment. The indicator of economic moods of Sentix in November continued growth from 6 to 9 points, reflecting growth of business activity.

As to the important statistical data, today data will be published on the PMI index of Great Britain in the services sector and the Producer Price Index for the Eurozone, which shows a decrease in rates of growth since the end of 2011. In the evening there is also data being published on numbers of ISM Services PMI in the USA. Indexes for the non-productive sphere, most likely, will confirm today the high level of optimism reached within a year.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

06 November 2013: Investors are Starting to Look on Facts and Figures

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Tuesday, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with a small decrease in the main indexes. After the two days growth of an index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500, investors didn't manage to find motivation to push indexes to go up, quite good macroeconomic statistics didn't rescue the market from prevalence of bears. Let's remind that the index of economic conditions of ISM in the non-productive sphere in October increased from 54,4 to 55,4 points, whereas decrease to 54 was expected.

Participants of the market already overcame the first euphoria after the government of the USA found a compromise and now are starting to look on facts and figures. After a long suspension of work of government agencies in October and decreasing speeds of recovery of American labor market - the investment community has no full picture about state of the economy, and investors are starting to have doubts in, whether the growth of the indexes which we have seen during the last month has been logical.

The external background for the American trading session has been quite negative, as the European markets showed bear dynamics, and Asian platforms were traded in a different directions. Additionally to this more negative has been brought to the markets by comments of the Jeffrey Leker, president of the FRS of Richmond, who has told that the economy of the USA next year will grow only by 2%, then up till the events of October – forecast of to 2,9-3,1% has been predicted.

As a result, Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,13% to level of 15618,22 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,28% to a level of 1762,97 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,08% and reached a level of 3939,86 points.

In the commodities market, price for oil continue to fall. Yesterday price for WTI decreased to a price of 93,37$ per barrel and has been losing 1,3%. This morning, prices are recovering and Brent and WTI are adding a bit more than 0,5% bargaining on a levels of 105,90$ and 94,21$ per barrel accordingly.

We shouldn't forget that key events of the current week are going to be meeting of European Central Bank and a release of the last official data on unemployment for October from the Ministry of Labor of the USA. These events will happen on Thursday and Friday respectively, therefore today again activity in stock market will be lowered.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

07 November 2013: Meeting Of European Central Bank And Draghi’s Conference Are Key Events of the Day

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Today, some of the key places in the economic calendar are occupied by the meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and the conference of Mario Draghi after it. This time, it may happen that the head of the Central Bank will prepare the markets for the possible decrease of the rate in December.

The point is that inflationary pressure in the Eurozone at the moment is on 4-year minimum levels, and continues to fall. If the fall is going to continue, it will start threatening the region with a deflation on a Japanese manner. The European Central Bank can't simply stay idle in such situations, and if the regulator will take a decision on further mitigation, it is going to have a significant impact on the Euro. At the moment, the support level is on a price of 1.3480, and it’s breakdown can direct the pair to the area of 1.34. The more we are going to receive positive data from the USA, the more possible it is going to be that EUR/USD will move towards the level of 1.32 within the next few weeks.

American stock markets showed inconsistent dynamics yesterday. The Dow Jones managed to reach a new historical maximum having increased by 0.8% reaching the level of 15746.88 points, supported by growth of stock quotations of oil and gas monsters, Exxon Mobil (+1.3%) and Chevron (+2.7%). Also the computer giant IBM (+1,3%) had some influence. At the same time Nasdaq decreased by 0.20% and finished the trading session on a level of 3931.95 points, S&P 500 increased by 0.43% reaching the level of 1770.49 points.

The Leading Index of the USA published yesterday, showed vigorous lifting by 0.7% having exceeded market expectations, and showed that there is no reason for concern regarding the health of the American economy, at least until the end of this year. In this context, the index of volatility of the American stocks, VIX, fell yesterday to 2-month minimum, having reflected very complacent spirit of investors.

Today, investors will be very cautious before the release of important data from the USA and the decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England alike. As a whole, investors expect weak data on gross domestic product and the labor market, which will promote further continuation of the program of quantitative easing in the USA up until spring next year.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS_rep]

10 April 2014: FOMC Protocols Inspired Investors

Yesterday, we emphasized that special attention should be paid to the publication of protocols of the last meeting of the FOMC, which, as a result, helped the American stock market to finish the trading day with an increase.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average index increased by 1,11% to the level of 16437,18 points, the S&P 500 added 1,09% and was closed at the level of 1872,18 points, and the index of high-tech companies, Nasdaq Composite, moved up on 1,72% and reached the level of 4183,90 points.

Minutes from the last FED meeting showed that the majority of the members changed their attitude towards the situation in the U.S. According to the protocols, most of the members revised the GDP growth forecast downwards, and expressed concerns about achieving the inflation target. In addition, the regulator took the decision to abolish the unemployment rate at 6,5%, as one of the signals to higher interest rates.

The European trading session was also rather positive and the majority of the stock indices were able to recoup losses of the previous days. The British, FTSE 100 rose by 0,70%, the French CAC 40 increased by 0,40%, and Germany's DAX added 0,20% . The Regional indicator STXE 600, in turn, increased by 0,40% and was closed on the level of 335,16 points. Among the published statistical data in the region, Germany's trade surplus in February can be noted, which was at the level of 15,7 billion euros, while analysts were expecting a surplus of 17,8 billion euros.

Today is expected to be quite a quiet day in relation to the publication of macroeconomic statistical data, so the participants of the markets are going to look for external information, which could influence the movements in the markets. As previously mentioned, the U.S. started its corporate reporting season, and despite the controversial start with Alcoa, so far the results are rather good.